From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

 

Analysts estimated Chinese April bean imports at 6.0 MMT

 

Oil World estimated Brazil’s April bean exports at 5.5 MMT vs. 6.23 MMT in March . Oil World said it is the first time in 10 years April bean exports were less than March bean exports

 

Oil World estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 86.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 84.5 MMT

 

Oil World estimated Argentina’s April bean exports at 1.3 MMT vs. 1.14 MMT a month ago

 

Oil World estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 53.5 MMT

 

Oil World estimated Uruguay’s April bean exports at 800,000 tons vs. 780,000 tons a year ago

 

Celeres estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop at 54.9 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 87.5 MMT

 

FranceAgriMer estimated France ‘13/14 soft wheat ending stocks at 3.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 3.2 MMT and up 12.5% from a year ago

 

FranceAgriMer estimated ‘13/14 soft wheat exports inside the EU28 at 6.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.7 MMT and down 8.5% from a year ago

 

FranceAgriMer estimated ‘13/14 soft wheat exports outside the EU at 11.4 MMT up 15% from a year ago

 

FranceAgriMer estimated ‘13/14 corn ending stocks at 3.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.9 MMT and up 23% from a year ago

 

FranceAgriMer estimated ‘13/14 barley ending stocks at 1.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 1.4 MMT and up 19% from a year ago

 

Drought in Thailand is damaging their rice crop

 

MDA Weather said cold and wet spell in Midwest next week could delay planting.  Midwest weather for this week is mostly dry and warm

 

May beans made a new contract high today of 1512.

 

May meal made a new contract high today of 490.90

 

May bean oil closed above the 200 day moving average of 4200. May bean oil settled at 4291

 

Argentina port workers and truck drivers are planning a one day strike for tomorrow.

 

Today was the third day of the index fund roll. They are rolling long May positions into July. Index fund roll ends on Friday

 

Chinese March trade data comes out tonight/tomorrow morning. Expecting March bean imports at 5.69 MMT vs. 4.8 MMT in February .

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out tomorrow with their March palm oil data. Based on a Reuters survey expecting

  • Palm oil stocks expecting 1.58 MMT (3 year low) vs. February stocks of 1.659 MMT
  • Palm oil exports expecting 1.30 MMT vs. February exports of 1.35 MMT
  • Palm oil output expecting 1.39 MMT vs. February output of 1.278 MMT

 

CONAB April Brazilian crop estimate update comes out tomorrow morning. Previous estimates were

  • ‘13/14 bean crop at 85.44 MMT
  • ‘13/14 bean exports at 45.3 MMT
  • ‘13/14 corn crop at 75.18 MMT
  • 2014 wheat crop at 5.5 MMT

 

Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST

 

Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST. Based on a Reuters survey expecting

  • Wheat – old crop 250,000- 375,000 tons ; new crop 150,000-300,000 tons
  • Corn – old crop 700,000 – 900,000 tons ; new crop 0-200,000 tons
  • Beans – old crop 0-150,000 tons ; new crop 100,000 – 300,000 tons
  • Meal – old crop 100,000 – 250,000 ; new crop 0-150,000 tons
  • Bean oil – old crop 0-30,000 ; new crop 0-10,000 tons

 

Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Based on a Bloomberg poll expecting +15 BCF.

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 5K
  • Corn sold 8K
  • Beans bought 6K
  • Meal bought 2K
  • Bean oil bought 4K

 

Open outcry option players

  • Before report
    • New Edge bought 1,500 short dated Sept bean 1140 puts and sold 3,000 short dated Sept bean 1040 puts at 12-12 ½
    • EDF Mann bought 1,000 May bean 1440 puts at 7 -7 ¼
    • ABN bought 3,000 July bean 1480 calls and sold 3,000 May bean 1450 calls at 1 ½ credit , bought 2,250 May futures at 1492 and sold 1,500 July bean futures at 1480
    • RJO bought 3,000 July short dated corn 480 puts at 11 ½ -11 5/8 and bought 840 Dec corn at 509-509 ¼
    • FI bought 3,000 May corn 530 calls and sold 1,000 May corn 510 calls at 5/8
    • FI bought 1,800 May corn 530 calls and sold 600 May corn 510 calls at 5/8 debit
    • New Edge bought 500 May wheat 700/720 call spreads at 4 and sold 80 May futures at 681
    • GFI sold 500 July wheat 775c/615p strangles at 18 ½
    • ABN bought 500 May wheat 670/650 put spread at 5 3/8 and bought 100 May futures at 681
    • RJO bought 700 July wheat 630/600 put spreads at 5 7/8
    • Rosenthal bought 200 July meal 500/530 call spreads at 5.25
    • New Edge bought 300 May bean oil 42 calls and sold 300 Sept bean oil 46 calls at 35 debit
  • After report
    • JP Morgan sold 1,000 July bean 1500 calls at 50-50 ½ and bought 480 July futures at 1490
    • JP Morgan sold 2,000 July bean 1500 calls at 45 and sold 920 July futures at 1480
    • ? sold 500 week 2 corn 500 puts at 1
    • Trean bought 1,000 May corn 500 puts at 6 ¾ and bought 460 May futures at 46
    • ADM bought 500 July corn 530c/500 p combos at 3 ¼
    • JP Morgan bought 600 July wheat 660 puts and sold 200 July wheat 680 straddles at 2
    • FC Stone bought 500 July wheat 760 calls and sold 500 July wheat 620 puts at 1 3/8 tied to futures at 683
    • Rosenthal bought 500 July KC wheat 700/730 call spreads at 12 tied to futures at 746
    • ABN sold 1,000 May KC wheat 740 puts at 16 ¼ -17 and sold 550 May KC futures at 734
    • RJO sold 500 June bean oil 42 calls at 150

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

K vol 22 500 str 18-18 ¾

M vol 24 ¾ 510 str 34-35

N vol 27 510 str 48 ½-49 ½

U vol 30 ¾ 510 str 73 ½-75

Z vol 27 ½ 510 str 87-88 ½

H vol 25 ½ 510 str 95 ½ -97

 

Beans

K vol 18 ½ 1490 str 46-48

M vol 20 ½ 1480 str 84 ½-86

N vol 20 ½ 1480 str 107-109

U vol 21 1280 str 128-132

X vol 19 ½ 1220 str 139-141

 

Wheat

K vol 22 670 str 24-26

M vol 25 ¾ 680 str 47-49

N vol 28 680 str 66-68

U vol 27 ¾ 690 str 91-94

Z vol 27 700 str 116-118

 

KC wheat

K vol 20 730 str 24-26

M vol 24 ½ 740 str 48-52

N vol 26 740 str 67-70

u vol 25 ½ 750 str 90-95

Z vol 24 ½ 760 str 114-119

 

Minneapolis wheat

K vol 19 710 str 20-27

M vol 21 720 str 42-50

N vol 25 720 str 60-68

U vol 24 730 str 80-88

Z vol 23 740 str 100-110

H vol 21 750 str 105-119

K vol 21 750 str 120-145

 

Meal

K vol 25 480 str 20-22

M vol 24 470 str 30-32.5

N vol 23.5 470 str 38.5-40.5

Q vol 23 440 str 43-45

U vol 22.25 410 str 43-45

Z vol 20.5 380 str 49-50

 

Bean oil

K vol 20 4250 str 135-160

M vol 20 43 str 235-255

N vol 19.5 43 str 295-315

Q vol 19.5 4250 str 350-375

U vol 19.5 4250 str 385-415

Z vol 18.75 42 str 475-500

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE