From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

 

Weekly US export inspections report came out this morning at 10 am CST

  • Wheat at 524,857 tons expecting 425,000 – 530,000 tons
  • Corn at 1,142,722 tons expecting 850,000 tons to 1.0 M tons
  • Beans at 732,132 tons expecting 770-925,0000 tons

 

Reuters poll of 5 analysts estimated South Africa’s ‘13/14 corn crop at 12.7 MMT , range of estimates were 12.5-13.0 MMT previous estimate was 12.403 MMT. CEC comes out on Thursday with their South African crop estimates

 

FranceAgriMer weekly French crop progress report from Friday

  • Spring barley planting 87% complete vs. 67% a week ago and vs. 62% a year ago
  • Soft wheat condition 75% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 67% a year ago
  • Winter barley condition 71% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs 67% a year ago

 

Canadian Oilseed Processors Association said for the week ending March 19th

  • Canola crush at 136,136 tons up 3.8% from a week ago
  • Soybean crush at 34,447 tons down 15.9% from a week ago

 

AgriPAC Consultants said Argentine farmers to sell more volume of beans this year . Expects farmers to sell 20.75 MMT of beans between March –May or 38% of total projected area

 

AgRural said Brazil’s soybean harvest is 63% complete vs. 59% a week ago and vs. 60% a year ago

 

AgRural estimated Brazil’s ’13.14 bean crop at 86.0 MMT

 

Safras e Mercado said 67% of the Brazilian bean crop has been harvested vs. 59% a week ago vs. 64% a year ago and vs. 56% five year average

 

Safras e Mercado said 96% of the Brazilian winter corn crop has been planted vs. 95% a year ago

 

Safras e Mercado said 62% of the Brazilian summer corn crop has been harvested vs. 48% a year ago

 

MARS 2014 EU28 yield estimates

  • Soft wheat at 5.71 TPH vs. 5.82 TPH a year ago and 2.5% above average
  • Barley at 4.59 TPH vs. 4.83 TPH a year ago and 2% above average
  • Corn at 7.03 TPH vs. 6.61 TPH a year ago and 6.3% above average
  • Rapeseed yield 3.13 TPH up 1.2% from a year ago and up 2.6% from average

 

India crops being damaged by hailstorms

 

Australia needs rain

 

Ukraine Ag Min said early grains planting is 52% complete on 1.5 MH

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 26.8 MMT of grain between July 1st – March 24th vs. 19 MMT a year ago

 

Saudi Arabia 2014 barley imports estimated at 6-7 MMT vs. 10.65 MMT a year ago

 

Saudi Arabia has 4.0 MMT of barley in strategic reserves

 

Vietnam Food Association said Vietnam exported 223,616 tons of rice between March 1st – March 20th

 

Vietnam Food Association said Vietnam exported 859,119 tons of rice between Jan 1st – March 20th

 

Vietnam Food Association estimated Vietnam’s 2014 rice exports at 6.5-7.0 MMT vs. 2013 exports of 6.7 MMT

 

Estimated Fund Activity

  • Wheat bought 7,000
  • Corn bought 8,000
  • Beans bought 6,000
  • Meal bought 2,500
  • Bean oil sold 1,000

 

Weekly US state crop conditions report comes out today at 3 pm CST – weekly USDA crop progress reports start again April 7th

 

Argentina is back from holiday tomorrow

 

Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out tomorrow with their Malaysian March 1-25th palm oil export estimates

 

Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am CST with their 2014 US acreage estimates . Previous estimates from Informa were

  • Corn acreage at 93.319 MA vs. 2013 acreage of 95.4 MA
  • Bean acreage at 81.264 MA vs. 2013 acreage of 76.5 MA
  • Winter wheat acreage at 41.9 MA vs. 2013 acreage of 43.090 MA
  • Cotton acreage at 10.9MA vs. 2013 acreage of 10.407 MA

 

Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST

 

Rogers roll begins March 28th – April 1st. They will be rolling their long May positions forward

 

Goldman Sachs roll begins April 7th . Goldman Sachs roll lasts for 5 days

 

Open outcry option players

 

Corn:

JPM bot 1000 K 490 calls/sold 520 CK

RJO bot 1000 week 4 475 puts

ICAP sold 500 K 490 calls

Macquarie sold 500 Z 450 puts/sold 165 CZ

Bache sold 500 U 470 calls/bot 300 CU

Citi bot 500 N 470 calls/sold 320 CN

 

Beans:

ADM sold 1000 N 1380 straddles

JPM bot 1100 K 1380-1320 put spreads/bot 220 SK

Bache bot 500 K 1460 calls

GFI bot 500 M 1460 calls

Marex sold 850 N 1380 straddles

Rosenthal bot 400 M 1460 calls

 

Wheat:

Rand sold 400 K 670 puts

ADM sold 300 Z 790 calls

 

Meal:

ADM bot 350 K 450-425 put spreads

ICAP sold 200 K 440-430 put spreads

 

Oil:

Newedge bot 500 M 41 calls/sold 500 N 43 calls

Newedge sold 300 K 42-41 put spreads

Newedge bot 250 N 47 ½ calls/sold 250 N 39 ½ puts

JPM bot 200 N 44-46 call spreads

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

K vol 28 ¾ 490 str 33 ¼-34

M vol 27 490 str 43-44

N vol 27 ½ 490 str 53-54

U vol 29 ¼ 490 str 72 ¾ -73 ¾

Z vol 26 490 str 81 ½-82 ½

 

Beans

K vol 21 ½ 1430 str 72 ½ -74 ½

N vol 21 1400 str 114-117

U vol 20 ½ 1240 str 128-132

X vol 18 ¼ 1180 str 130-133

 

Wheat

K vol 33 710 str 54-57

M vol 32 ½ 720 str 74-76

N vol 31 ½ 720 str 87-90

U vol 29 720 str 105-108

Z vol 27 ½ 730 str 127-130

 

KC Wheat

K vol 29 ½ 790 str 53-56

M vol 28 ¾ 790 str 71-75

N vol 28 ¾ 790 str 87-90

U vol 27 ¼ 790 str 107-111

Z vol 26 800 str 130-135

 

Minneapolis wheat

K vol 27 760 str 47-54

N vol 29 760 str 80-89

U vol 29 760 str 106-115

Z vol 27 ½ 770 str 129-139

 

Meal

K vol 25 460 str 27-29

N vol 23.5 440 str 41-43

Q vol 22.5 420 str 43-45

U vol 21.5 400 str 44-46

Z vol 20 370 str 47-49

 

Bean oil

K vol 21 41 str 200-220

M vol 21 41 str 270-290

N vol 20.5 41 str 325-345

Q vol 19.75 41 str 360-395

U vol 19.5 40.5 str 385-415

V vol 18.75 40 str 405-435

Z vol 18.25 40 str 450-480

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN                CLOSE

MAY          43.5-44.5         40-40.5

JLY              40-41                36.5-38

AUG          46.5-48             43-46

SEP            85.5-90             84-86

OCT           84-85                 84-85

DEC           76.5-77             77-77.5

JAN           72.5-74              70-74

MCH         71-73                 71-73

MAY5       69-70                 69.5-70.5

JKLY5        69-70                 69-70

 

Crush players

 

ABN sold 40 May 44

ABN bought 40 July 40

ADM sold 100 Sept 85-85.5