From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

 

Headlines from Fed announcement (today at 1 pm CST)

  • Fed: 2 Officials See Rate Hike Beginning in 2016
  • Fed: 15 Of 16 Officials See Rates At or Below 0.25% Through End of 2014
  • Fed: 11 Of 16 Officials See Rates At or Below 1.00% Through End of 2015
  • Fed: 9 Of 16 Officials See Rates At or Below 2.25% Through End of 2016
  • Fed: Only 1 Official Sees Rate Hike Beginning in 2014
  • Fed: 13 of 16 Officials See Rate Hike Beginning in 2015
  • In December, 2 Fed Officials Saw Rate Hike Beginning in 2014; 12 in 2015; 3 in 2016
  • Fed Officials Expect Unemployment Rate to Fall Slightly Faster in Coming Years
  • Fed Sees Unemployment at 6.1%-6.3% in Late 2014; 5.6%-5.9% in Late 2015; 5.2%-5.6% in Late 2016
  • Fed Officials See Lower Upper Range for Annual GDP Growth Through 2016
  • Fed Sees GDP Growth of 2.8%-3.0% in 2014; 3.0%-3.2% in 2015; 2.5%-3.0% in 2016
  • Fed Officials’ Outlook for Inflation Nearly Unchanged
  • Fed Sees Inflation of 1.5%-1.6% in 2014; 1.5%-2.0% in 2015; 1.7%-2.0% in 2016
  • Majority of Fed Officials Still Expect First Interest-Rate Hike in 2015

 

Doane Advisory Services – 2014 US acreage estimates

  • Soybean area at 83.6 MA (record) vs. 76.5 MA a year ago
  • Corn area at 90.9 MA (four year low)  vs. USDA Outlook Forum estimate of 92.0 MA
  • All wheat area at 57.5 MA vs. USDA Outlook Forum estimate of 55.5 MA
  • Cotton area at 11.5 MA up 11% from a year ago
  • Rice area at 2.9 MA up 16% from a year ago
  • Oat area at 3.7 MA up 24% from a year ago

 

Japan customs data Feb imports

  • Grains at 1,840,605 tons down 19.6% from a year ago
    • Grains from the US at 947,126 tons up 1.1% from a year ago
    • Soybeans at 160,975 tons down 9.9% from a year ago
      • Beans from the US at 137,479 tons down 9.6% from a year ago

 

Market talk , reports of China reselling Brazilian bean cargoes to the US continue.

 

Japan received no bids on SBS tender for 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of feed barley for June shipment.

 

Japan issued a new SBS tender for 120,0000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of feed barley for June shipment.

 

Kazakhstan Prime Minister estimated Kazakhstan’s 2014 oilseed area (including canola, soybeans, sunflower, and flax)  at 2.0 MH up 35,800 hectares from a year ago

 

Tunisia bought 34,000 optional origin durum wheat for April/May shipment

 

Libya seeks 50,000 optional origin milling wheat for April shipment

 

Algeria Ag Min said 2014 grain crop will be 15% higher than 2013 grain crop of 4.9 MMT

 

May bean oil closed below the 200 day moving average of 4247. May bean oil settled at 4210

 

Surveyor SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out tomorrow with their Malaysian March 1-20th palm oil export estimates

 

2 day EU leaders summit begins tomorrow in Brussels

 

Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST

 

Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST . Expecting

  • Wheat old crop 250,000-500,000 , new crop 50,000-200,000, combined 300,000- 700,000 tons
  • Corn old crop 400,000 – 700,000 tons, new crop 100,000-350,000 tons, combined 500,000 – 1.5 M tons
  • Beans old crop negative 100,000 to positive 300,000, new crop  300,000-600,000 tons , combined 200,000 – 900,000 tons
  • Meal old crop 100,000-200,000 tons, new crop 30,000 – 100,000 tons, combined 130,000 – 300,000 tons
  • Bean oil old crop 0-50,000 tons, new crop 0-50,000 tons, combined 0-100,000 tons

 

Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting – 60 BCF

 

Estimated Fund Activity

  • Wheat bought 9K
  • Corn bought 3K
  • Beans bought 5K
  • Meal bought 3K
  • Bean oil sold 1K

 

Open outcry option players

  • Rand bought 1,500 May bean 1400 puts at 27
  • GFI bought 2,000 July bean 1400 straddles and sold 2,000 July bean 1380 straddles at a ¼ – ½ debit
  • FI sold 3,000 July beans 1400/1500 call spreads at 35
  • ICap sold 1,500 May corn 490 calls at 16 1/8 and bought 690 May corn futures at 486
  • New Edge bought 1,800 June wheat 630 puts at 10 ¾ -11
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 Dec wheat 920 calls at 18 ¾ -19 sold 200 Dec futures at 721 ½
  • New Edge bought 500 July KC wheat 750 calls sold 500 Sept KC wheat 810 calls and sold 500 Sept KC 660 puts at even money

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

J vol 29 ¼ 490 str 9-10

K vol 28 ¾ 490 str 35 ½-36 ½

M vol 26 ¾ 490 str 44-45

N vol 27 ¼ 490 str 53 ½ -54 ½

 

Beans

K vol 21 ¾ 1430 str 78-80

N vol 21 ¾ 1400 str 122-125

X vol 18 ¾ 1200 str 135-135

 

Wheat

K vol 36 720 str 66-68

N vol 33 720 str 94-96

Z vol 29 730 str 136-140

 

KC Wheat

K vol 31 ¼ 790 str 62-65

N vol 29 780 str 90-95

Z vol 26 ½ 790 str 134-140

 

Minneapolis wheat

K vol 32 760 str 60-66

N vol 32 750 str 92-101

U vol 31 750 str 115-124

Z vol 29 760 str 135-146

 

Meal

K vol 24.5 460 str 28.5-30

N vol 23 450 str 42-43.5

Z vol 19.5 370 str 47-49

 

Bean oil

K vol 19.5 42 str  305-315

N vol 19.5 42 str 320-335

Z vol 17.75 41.5 str 450-480

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN             CLOSE

MAY         46-47.5           47.5-48.5

JLY            37.5-39.5       39-40

AUG         40-42               41-43

SEP           85-90               86-90

OCT          84-85               83.5-84

DEC          75.5-76.5        76-76.5

JAN          70-72                70-74

MCH        70-72                70-72.5

MAY5      70-70.5            70-70.5

JLY5         69.5-70.5          69.5-70.5

 

Crush players

  • ABN sold 230 May at 47-48
  • ABN bought 230 July at 39.25-39.5
  • RJO sold 100 July Sept,  Sept  at 69.5