From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 11/19/14

News:

 

Jordan bought 100,000 tons of optional origin hard wheat for April/May shipment

 

Tunisia bought 100,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat (likely French origin) for Dec- Jan shipment

 

Tunisia bought 50,000 tons of optional origin feed barley (possibly French origin) for Dec –Jan shipment

 

Qatar bought 20,000 tons of Australian origin milling wheat for January shipment.

 

Lanworth estimated ‘15/16 US winter wheat plantings at 40.790 MA vs. USDA estimate of 42.4 MA .

 

Lanworth estimated ‘15/16 US HRW wheat area at 30.1 MA, estimated US SRW wheat area at 7.2 MA, and estimated US white winter wheat area at 3.4 MA

 

Lanworth estimated ‘15/16 US winter wheat production at 1.570 BB vs. ‘14/15 crop of 1.378 BB

 

Lanworth estimated ‘14/15 US corn yield at 174.7 BPA vs. previous estimate of 175.7 BPA

 

Lanworth estimated US ‘14/15 bean yield at 47.8 BPA unchanged from previous estimate

 

Ukraine economy ministry estimated ‘14/15 grain exports at 36.7 MMT up 7% from previous estimate

 

Ukraine economy ministry estimated 2014 grain crop at 63.2 MMT vs. ag ministry estimate of 64.4 MMT

 

The Feds released the minutes from the 2 day FOMC policy meeting that took place on October 28-29 today at 1 pm CST. Some headlines off of Reuters.

  • FOMC IN OCTOBER DISCUSSED “SOMEWHAT WEAKER” OUTLOOK IN EUROPE, CHINA, JAPAN, AND STRONGER DOLLAR; MANY SAW IMPACT ON U.S. AS “QUITE LIMITED” – MINUTES
  • FOMC DISCUSSED ADVANTAGES, DISADVANTAGES OF REFERENCING RECENT FINANCIAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS; PARTICIPANTS SAW RISK REFERENCE MIGHT SIGNAL GREATER PESSIMISM THAN APPROPRIATE
  • FOMC PARTICIPANTS EXPECTED SOFT INFLATION IN NEAR-TERM, THEN RISING TOWARD TARGET; A FEW WORRIED INFLATION COULD BE BELOW TARGET FOR “QUITE SOME TIME”
  • FOMC PARTICIPANTS DISCUSSED DROP IN MARKET-BASED INFLATION EXPECTATIONS, MANY SAID FED SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO A POSSIBLE DOWNWARD SHIFT IN LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS
  • SOME PARTICIPANTS WANTED TO ELIMINATE “CONSIDERABLE TIME” LANGUAGE FROM FOMC STATEMENT, OTHERS THOUGHT PHRASE USEFUL
  • ALL BUT ONE FOMC VOTING MEMBER WANTED TO KEEP “CONSIDERABLE TIME” LANGUAGE – MINUTES
  • A NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS THOUGHT IT COULD “SOON BE HELPFUL” TO CLARIFY APPROACH TO PACE OF INTEREST RATES HIKES
  • FOMC PARTICIPANTS, IN DISCUSSION ON LONG-RUN GOALS, STRATEGY, AGREED MODERATE DEVIATIONS ABOVE AND BELOW 2 PCT INFLATION TARGET EQUALLY COSTLY
  • A NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS CALLED FOR NEW STUDY ON FEASIBILITY OF CONSENSUS FORECAST – FOMC MINUTES
  • SEVERAL THOUGHT ENHANCEMENTS TO SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS ‘WORTH CONSIDERING’ – MINUTES

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat sold 4,000
  • Corn sold 12,000
  • Beans sold 4,000
  • Meal sold 3,000
  • Bean oil sold 2,000

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Surveyors Intertek and SGS will estimate Malaysia’s November 1-20th palm oil exports tomorrow
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST.
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST. Expecting
    • Wheat 300,000- 500,000 tons
    • Corn 500,000 -700,000 tons
    • Beans 700,000 -1.0 million tons
    • Meal -100,000 to +100,000 tons
    • Bean oil 5-20,000 tons
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting -15 BCF

 

Open outcry option players:

  • Rand bought 2,000 Jan bean 920 puts at 5 ¼ and bought 240 Jan futures at 1007
  • Rand bought 1,300 Jan bean 900 puts at 3 ½ and bought 104 Jan futures at 1007
  • Rosenthal bought 1,500 March bean 1000 puts and sold 1,500 July bean 900 puts at 18 ½ debit
  • Macquarie bought 1,000 March corn 360 puts at 10 5/8.
  • FC Stone sold 1,000 Dec corn 420 puts and bought 2,000 Dec corn 380 puts
  • ICAP bought 3,000 Feb corn 390 calls at 10 3/8-10 ½ and sold 1,200 March futures at 377 ½
  • Goldman Sachs bought 2,000 Dec wheat 560 puts and sold 2,000 March wheat 560 puts at 13 ¾ – 15 ¾ credit
  • ABN sold 600 May meal 380-420 call spreads at 4.60
  • RJO sold 600 May meal 340 calls at 19.80 and bought 396 May futures at 337.00
  • Drax bought 300 May bean oil 37 calls and sold 300 Jan bean oil 35.50 calls at 37 debit
  • RJO bought 300 Dec bean oil 33 puts at 78

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

Z vol 33 365 str 7 ½-8 ¼

F vol 23 ½ 380 str 22 ½ -23 ½

G vol 24 ½ 380 str 31-32

H vol 24 ¼ 380 str 36 ½-37 ½

K vol 23 ¾ 380 str 46 ½-47 ½

N vol 23 ¾ 390 str 56 ½-57 ½

U vol 24 ¼ 400 str 66-67 ½

Z15 vol 22 ½ 410 str 72-73 ½

 

Beans:

Z vol 29 100 str 21-22 1/2

F vol 23 100 str 57-58 ½

H vol 22 ¼ 1020 str 90-92

X15 vol 19 ¼ 1000 str 146-149

 

Wheat:

Z vol 30 540 str 9-11

F vol 23 540 str 31-33

H vol 22 ¼ 540 str 47-49

K vol 22 550 str 62-64

N vol 22 ½ 550 str 76-78

 

KC wheat:

Z vol 28 590 str 9-11

F vol 20 590 str 29-31

H vol 19 ¾ 590 str 46-49

K vol 20 590 str 60-63

N vol 20 ¾ 590 str 74-78

 

Minneapolis wheat:

Z vol 23 570 str 8-10

H vol 19 ¼ 580 str 43-47

K vol 19 ¼ 590 str 57-63

N vol 20 ½ 590 str 71-77

 

Crush quotes:

OPEN               CLOSE

FZZ             1.66-1.69          1.67-1.68

JAN            1.355-1.375     1.37-1.38

MCH          94.5-98             98-99

MAY           83-83.5             84-84.5

JLY              81-82                 82.5-83

AUG          81-82                 82-83

SEP            92.5-99              82-83

OCT           93-95.5              91.5-99

DEC            89-90                 87.5-88

JAN            86-89                 80-85

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • ABN sold 100 March crush at 97.5
  • ABN sold March oil share 90 oil/ 45 meal at 32.25-32.45%

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE