From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 11/18/14

News:

 

Talk/Reports that 2 more cargoes of US meal have been switched to South America.

 

Ship to load 45,000 tons of feed wheat in France for Southeast US, first large French shipment to the US in 12 years – Reuters.

 

Abiove estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 91.0 MMT (record) unchanged from previous estimate

 

Abiove said drought to delay Brazil bean harvest and may tighten biodiesel supplies – Reuters – full article from Reuters is at the end of this email.

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine has exported 14.0 MMT of grains so far this season.

 

French government said as of October 1st 2014 French farmers have sold 29.5 MMT of grain vs. 28.0 MMT a year ago.

 

French government said as of October 1st 2014 France grain stocks at 20.1 MMT vs. 19.4 MMT a year ago.

 

Indian government said as of November 14th Indian farmers have planted wheat on 4.3 MH vs. 5.3 MH a year ago.

 

Indian government said as of November 14th Indian farmers have planted rapeseed on 4.9 MH vs. 4.7 MH a year ago.

 

Jan beans closed below the 100 day moving average of 1030 ½. Jan beans settled at 1023 ¼.

 

March wheat closed below the 100 day moving average of 551 ½. March wheat settled at 551.

 

Dec bean oil closed below the 50 day moving average of 3269. Dec bean oil settled at 3265

 

Jan bean oil closed below the 50 day moving average of 3293. Jan bean oil settled at 3279.

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat sold 2K
  • Corn sold 5K
  • Beans sold 4K
  • Meal sold 3K
  • Bean oil bought 1,500

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.0 MB
    • Gas a build of 500,000 barrels
    • Distillates a draw of 2.0 MB
    • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
    • See attachment for Thanksgiving holiday trading schedule.

 

Open outcry option players:- extremely quiet on the trading floor today.

  • JP Morgan sold 500 March soybean 960 puts at 17 ¾ and sold 120 March futures at 1036
  • Macquarie sold 500 July soybean 880 puts at 13 ½
  • Drax bought 1,000 Dec soybean 980 puts at 1 ¼
  • FC Stone sold 1,000 March corn 350 puts at 5 5/8 and sold 200 March futures at 388
  • ICAP bought 1,000 Dec corn 360 calls at 14 3/8
  • ICAP bought 1,000 Dec corn 360 calls at 13 ½
  • RJO sold 1,000 Dec corn 380/400/420 call flys at 1 ¾
  • ICAP sold 500 Dec wheat 550-560 call spreads at 3 tied to Dec futures at 548
  • JP Morgan sold 500 Dec wheat 560 calls at 2 tied to Dec futures at 547
  • ABN bought 500 Feb wheat 540 puts at 18 tied to Dec futures at 547
  • Jefferies sold 1,500 March meal 340-350 call spreads at 5.25
  • Macquarie sold 750 Jan meal 400 calls at 6.00 and bought 180 Jan meal futures at 369.50
  • Drax bought 1,000 March bean oil 34 calls at 114 tied to March futures at 3330.
  • Drax bought 500 Jan bean oil 34 calls at 63 tied to Jan futures at 3310
  • Jefferies bought 300 Jan bean oil 31 puts at 27-28
  • ABN bought 300 Dec bean oil 32 puts at 12-14
  • ABN sold 400 Jan bean oil 32 puts at 56

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

Z vol 28 ½ 370 str 7 ¾ -8 ½

F vol 23 ½ 390 str 23-24

G vol 24 ¼ 390 str 32-33

H vol 24 390 str 37 ½-38 ½

K vol 23 ½ 390 str 47 ½-48 ½

N vol 23 ¾ 400 str 58-59

U vol 24 ¼ 410 str 67 ½-69

Z15 vol 22 ½ 420 str 74-75 ½

 

Beans:

Z vol 28 1020 str 23 ½-24 ½

F vol 22 ¼ 1020 str 59-60

H vol 22 1040 str 91 ½-92 ½

K vol 20 ¾ 1040 str 111-114

N vol 21 1040 str 131 ½-134 ½

X15 vol 19 ½ 1020 str 148-151

 

Wheat:

Z vol 22 ½ 550 str 11 ½-12 ½

F vol 23 ¼ 550 str 33-34

H vol 23 550 str 43-44

K vol 22 ½ 560 str 65-66 ½

N vol 22 ¾ 560 str 78-80

U vol 22 ¾ 570 str 88 ½-91 ½

Z15 vol 22 580 str 99-103

 

KC wheat:

Z vol 20 ½ 590 str 10 ½-12 ½

F vol 20 595 str 30-33

G vol 20 595 str 39-43

H vol 19 ½ 590 str 45-49

K vol 20 ¼ 600 str 61-67

N vol 20 ½ 600 str 73 ½- 79 ½

 

Minneapolis wheat:

Z vol 23 580 str 9-12

H vol 20 ½ 590 str 46-50

K vol 20 ½ 590 str 59-65

N vol 21 600 str 73-79

 

Meal:

Z vol 44 380 str 14-15

F vol 31 360 str 29-31

H vol 29 350 str 38-40

K vol 26.5 340 str 43-45

N vol 23.5 340 str 48.5-50

 

Bean oil:

Z vol 23.25 32.5 str 60-75

F vol 21.75 33 str 160-180

H vol 20.75 33 str 210-225

K vol 19.75 33 str 330-350

N vol 19.25 33.5 str 380-410

 

Crush quotes:

OPEN                 CLOSE

FZZ            1.79-1.83          1.68-1.69

JAN           1.435-1,45        1.37-1.38

MCH         99-99.5              98.5-99

MAY         83.5-84.5           83-84

JLY             81-82.5              81.5-82

AUG         80-83                  80.5-83

SEP           90-99                  94-99.5

OCT          93-95                  90-95.5

DEC           89-90.5              89-92

JAN5        86-89.5               80-90

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • ABN sold 50 May/July/July crush at 86
  • RJO sold 20 Nov/Sept/Sept crush at 1.10
  • ABN sold oil share 87 March oil / 50 March meal at 31.95-32.00%

 

Drought to delay Brazil soy harvest, tighten biodiesel supplies – RTRS

18-Nov-2014 12:54

SAO PAULO, Nov 18 (Reuters) – Brazil’s soybean harvest is expected to occur later than usual due to a drought that has delayed planting and could tighten the local fuel market’s supply of biodiesel in early 2015, the grain crushing industry association Abiove said on Tuesday.

Abiove representative in charge of biodiesel, Leonardo Botelho Zilio, said in an email to Reuters that members of the association had met last week with officials at the energy ministry and at the national petroleum agency last week over possible supply constraints in biodiesel early next year.

Dry weather in the past months over Brazil’s main center-west grain belt had set planting of the new soy crop back and even prompted some farmers to replant. Normally the center-west state of Mato Grosso, Brazil’s top producing soy state, is first to harvest in late December to early January.

Soybean oil accounts for between 60 percent and 70 percent of the total feedstock for all national biodiesel production. An early harvest is looking very unlikely this season, however, Abiove and producers association Aprosoja said.

The start of harvest “could suffer delays of 20 to 30 days depending on climatic conditions that unfold in the next weeks,” Zilio said.

Despite maintaining its forecast for a record 91 million tonnes soy harvest in the 2014/2015 season, Abiove said the late harvest could tighten the country’s supplies of biodiesel, which the government blends at 7 percent in all commercial diesel.

After raising the blend from 6 percent on Nov. 1, the government will now face new inflationary pressures on the country’s fuel markets. The benchmark index for inflation broke out of the 6.5 percent upper limit that the central bank is required to keep inflation below.

The government’s decision earlier in November to raise wholesale diesel prices by 5 percent will also keep upward pressure on fuel prices, in the short-term as well.

In the first half of 2014, Brazil blended biodiesel at 5 percent in retail fuel. The additional 2 percentage points of biodiesel in retail fuel will raise demand from 3 billion liters to 4.2 billion liters annually.

Weather in the main soybean states has turned wetter in the past month and is expected to get more widespread rains in the coming days to weeks. January and February are often the soy belt’s wettest months. Rains could further delay the harvest of the new crop.

(Reporting by Reese Ewing; Editing by David Gregorio)

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE