From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 11/03/14

News:

 

Weekly US export inspections came out this morning at 10 am CST:

  • Wheat at 208,706 tons expecting 300,000-475,000 tons
  • Corn at 425,826 tons expecting 725,000 -900,000 tons
  • Beans at 2.77 million tons expecting 1.85 -2.10 million tons (record high for any week)

 

Brazilian Trade Ministry – Brazilian October exports

  • Soybeans =  740,800 tons vs. 2.67 MMT in September and vs. 1.50 MMT in October 2013.
  • Soymeal =  1.18 MMT vs. 1.23 MMT in September and vs. 1.09 MMT in October 2013.
  • Bean oil = 96,900 tons vs. 64,822 tons in September and vs. 168,900 tons in October 2013.
  • Corn = 3,178,400 tons vs. 2,683,900 tons in September and vs. 3,953,300 tons in October 2013.
  • Ethanol = 101.40 million liters vs. 118.8 million liters in September and vs. 336.0 million liters in October 2013

 

Strategie Grains estimated EU 2014 rapeseed crop at 24.0 MMT (record) vs. previous estimate of 23.8 MMT

 

Strategie Grains estimated EU 2015 rapeseed area at 6.5 MH unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 2014 EU area of 6.7 MH

 

Strategie Grains estimated EU 2014 sunseed crop at 8.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 8.7 MMT

 

Strategie Grains estimated EU 2015 sunflower area at 4.3 MH unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 2014 area of 4.2 MH.

 

Kazakhstan’s Ag Min said Kazakhstan exported 2.18 MMT of grain between July 1st – October 31st vs. 2.58 MMT a year ago

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said as of Nov 3rd Kazakhstan had harvested 90.5% of their grain crop.

 

Indonesia statistics agency 2014 crop estimates

  • 2014 rice crop estimated at 70.61 MMT vs. previous estimate of 69.87 MMT
  • 2014 corn crop estimated at 19.13 MMT vs. previous estimate of 18.55 MMT
  • 2014 bean crop estimated at 921,340 tons vs. previous estimate of 892,600 tons

 

IGC estimated ‘14/15 global wheat crop at 718.0 MMT (record) vs. previous estimate of 717.0 MMT

 

IGC estimated ‘14/15 global corn crop at 980.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 972.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 983.0 MMT

 

FranceAgriMer said as of 10/27/14 French farmers have harvested 57% of their corn crop vs. 38% a week prior and vs. 30% a year ago

 

St. Lawrence seaway workers go to arbitration, averting strike.

 

Reports of good US farmer selling over the weekend.

 

Today was the last day of the Rogers roll. On the close:

  • 6,607 Dec/March corn spreads traded at -12 ½ to -12 ¼
  • 4,530 Dec/March Chicago wheat spreads traded at -12 ½ to -12 ¼
  • 813 Dec/March KC wheat spreads traded at -4 ¾ to -4
  • 1,386 Dec/Jan meal spreads at 16.00- 17.20
  • 1,050 Dec/Jan bean oil spreads at -22 to -21

 

Dec corn closed above the 100 day moving average of 370 ¾. Dec corn settled at 373 ½ .

 

Dec KC wheat closed above the 50 day moving average of 595 ½ . Dec KC wheat settled at 597 ½ .

 

Dec Minneapolis wheat closed above the 50 day moving average of 572 ½. Dec Minneapolis  wheat settled at 577 ¾.

 

CME to lower corn futures initial margins for speculators by 20% to $1,100 per contract from $1,375 this afternoon.

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 3,000
  • Corn sold 4,000
  • Beans sold 7,000
  • Meal sold 4,000
  • Bean oil sold 3,000

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • FC Stone comes out today at 3 pm CST with their 2014 US crop estimates. Previous estimates were
    • 2014 US corn crop at 14.958 BB
    • 2014 US corn yield at 178.4 BPA
    • 2014 US bean crop at 4.066 BB
    • 2014 US bean yield at 48.4 BPA
    • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST expecting
    • US trade balance report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
    • Deutsche Bank roll begins tomorrow and runs for 5 days. DB will be rolling long Dec 2014 corn positions into Dec 2015 corn.
    • CONAB comes out on November 11thwith their ‘14/15 Brazilian crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
      • Corn crop estimated at 76.6-78.9 MMT
      • Bean crop estimated at 88.83- 92.41 MMT
      • Bean exports estimated at 48.5 MMT
    • Bean harvest 83-90% complete
    • Corn harvest 60-65% complete
    • Winter wheat planting 87-91% complete
    • Winter wheat condition good to excellent 1% lower to 1% higher from a week ago
  • Informa comes out tomorrow with their 2014 US crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
    • 2014 US corn crop at 14.395 BB
    • 2014 US corn yield at 176.4 BPA
    • 2014 US bean crop at 4.017 BB
    • 2014 US bean yield at 48.5 BPA

 

Open outcry option players:

  • ABN bought 500 Dec soybean 1000 puts and sold 750 Dec soybean 950 puts at 7 ½ debit
  • Bunge sold 800 Jan bean 1100 calls at 16
  • Rosenthal sold 2,500 Dec corn 360/370 call spreads at 6 1/8
  • Macquarie sold 2,000 Dec 2015 corn 450 calls at 24 5/8 and bought 760 Dec 2015 corn futures at 413
  • ABN bought 1,000 week 2 corn 350/370 put spreads at 6
  • ICAP sold 600 Dec wheat 530 puts at 8 ¾ and sold 240 Dec wheat futures at 536 ½
  • ICAP sold 600 Dec wheat 540 straddles at 24
  • Bunge bought 500 Dec meal 360-330 put spreads at 5.00
  • Bunge bought 500 Dec 360-310 put spreads at 7.25
  • RJO bought 500 March meal 280/310 put spreads at 5.10
  • Drax sold 500 Dec bean oil 34 calls at 100-105

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

Z vol 30 375 str 20 ¼ -21

F vol 30 390 str 29 ½-31

G vol 25 390 str 36 ½-38

H vol 24 ¾ 390 str 41 ½-42 ½

K vol 24 400 str 51 ¾-52 ¾

N vol 24 400 str 61-62

U vol 24 ¾ 410 str 71-72 ½

Z15 vol 22 ¾ 420 str 77-78

 

Beans:

Z vol 28 ¼ 1030 str 53-54

F vol 25 ¼ 1030 str 79 ½-80 ½

H vol 23 str 1040 str 104-105

X15 vol 19 ¼ 1020 str 152-153

 

Wheat:

Z vol 23 ½ 540 str 22-24

H vol 22 550 str 52-54

K vol 22 560 str 65-68

N vol 22 ¼ 560 str 78-81

 

KC wheat:

Z vol 19 ½ 600 str 20-22

H vol 19 ½ 600 str 50-52

K vol 19 ½ 600 str 63-65

N vol 20 ½ 660 str 77-80

 

Minneapolis wheat:

Z vol 20 570 str 19-23

H vol 18 ½ 580 str 43-48

K vol 18 ¼ 590 str 55-61

N vol 20 600 str 72-78

 

Meal:

Z vol 44.5 370 str 29-31

F vol 34.25 350 str 35-37

H vol 28.75 340 str 41-43

K vol 25.25 340 str 45-47

N vol 24 340 str 49-52

 

Bean oil:

Z vol 24.5 34 str 145-160

F vol 21.75 34.5 str 230-250

H vol 20.25 34.5 str 305-335

K vol 20 35 str 370-400

N vol 19.5 35 str 420-460

 

Crush quotes:

OPEN                  CLOSE

DEC       1.866-1.90         1.65-1.665

FZZ        1.85-1,87           1.62-1.625

JAN       1.42-1.45           1.28-1.30

MCH     99-1.00               93-96

MAY     84-85                   80-82

JLY         83.5-84               79-81

AUG      84-85.5              79-83

SEP        90-1.05              90-1.00

OCT       97.5-1.015        95-1.02

DEC5     93-95                  92-94

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • No crush players in the pit today
  • Jefferies bought 20 March oil/meal oil share at 33.55%

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE