From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

 

Oil World said South American soybean production may be 3-5 MMT less than analysts were expecting due to hot and dry weather in Brazil and Paraguay.

 

Oil World estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 53-54 MMT vs. previous estimate of 54-55 MMT

 

Oil World estimated Paraguay’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 9.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 9.3 MMT

 

Oil World estimated Brazil’s February bean exports at 2.7 MMT vs. 1.0 MMT a year ago

 

Cordonnier’s weekly crop estimates

  • ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop at 89.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 90.0 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Brazilian corn crop at 68.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Said Brazilian bean estimate could decline further
  • ‘13/14 Argentine bean crop at 53.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 Argentine corn crop at 22.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Jordan bought 100,000 tons of optional origin wheat for June shipment

 

Ag Resource said China is trying to resell as many as 10-12 cargoes of US beans for Feb- March shipment. They said the problem is that many of the cargoes are sold as CIF with the boats and beans both in place. This makes resale difficult to anyone but another Chinese crusher.

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated 2014 corn planting area at 5.2 MH up 6% from a year ago

 

March corn closed above the 100 day moving average of 438 ½. March corn settled at 441 ½

 

March oil closed below the 50 day moving average of 3888. March oil settled at 3885

 

Today was the third day of the Goldman Sachs roll. The roll ends Thursday.

 

Chinese January trade data comes out tonight / tomorrow morning.

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 2K
  • Corn sold 3K
  • Beans bought 5K
  • Meal bought 2K
  • Bean oil bought 1,500

 

Open outcry players

  • Rand bought 800 March May bean futures spreads at 14
  • Tenco bought 1,000 Nov bean 1060/1000 put spreads at 16 5/8
  • Rosenthal bought 1,200 May bean 1250 puts at 12-13
  • ABN sold 1,000 March 1250 puts at 3/8
  • ABN sold 1,000 March 1260 puts at 5/8
  • ABN bought 1,000 May corn 440 puts sold 1,000 April corn 440 puts at 5 5/8 debit
  • FC Stone bought 7,200 Dec corn 650 calls and sold 1,200 Dec corn 500 calls at 3 debit
  • Rosenthal bought 300 May wheat 600 calls sold 1,500 May wheat 530 puts at 2 ¾ -3
  • Rand bought 600 July KC wheat 650 calls at 34-35 ½ and sold 600 July Chicago wheat at 591-592
  • Mizuho bought 3,000 Dec meal 300 puts at 5.25-5.5
  • ADM bought 300 July bean oil 39 puts at 125-130

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

H vol 17 ¼ 440 str 10-10 ¼

J vol 16 ¼ 450 str 18 ½- 19 ½

K vol 19 450 str 30-31

N vol 21 450 str 44 ½-45

U vol 23 ½ 450 str 60 ½-61 ½

Z vol 21 ¾ 460 str 69 ½ -70 ½

 

Beans

H vol 14 ¾ 1340 str 27-28

J vol 15 1320 str 51-52

K vol 15 ½ 1320 str 72-74

N vol 16 1280 str 97-100

X vol 16 1120 str 118-121

 

Wheat

H vol 23 ½ 590 str 18-20

J vol 22 ½ 590 str 34-35

K vol 22 ¼ 590 str 46-48

N vol 23 ¾ 590 str 65-67

U vol 24 600 str 82-84

Z vol 23 610 str 97-100

 

KC wheat

H vol 23 ¼ 660 str 20-22

K vol 21 ½ 650 str 49-51

N vol 22 ¾ 640 str 66-71

Z vol 21 ¼ 660 str 96-100

 

Minneapolis wheat

H vol 21 660 str 17-23

J vol 19 640 str 27-35

K vol 18 ½ 640 str 39-46

N vol 19 640 str 55-61

U vol 21 ½ 640 str 70-79

Z vol 21 ½ 650 str 90-101

 

Meal

H vol 22.25 450 str 14-16

K vol 19.5 430 str 29.5-31

N vol 18.75 420 str 36.5-38

Q vol 18.5 400 str 39-42

U vol 18 380 str 38.5-41.5

Z vol 17.5 350 str 42-43

 

Bean oil

H vol 15.25 3850 str 70-85

K vol 15.5 39 str 205-220

N vol 15.5 3950 275-295

Q vol 15.5 3950 str 310-330

U vol 15.5 3950 str 330-360

Z vol 15.5 39 str 405-435