From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

 

Cargill says it is idling soybean processing plant this spring in Raleigh North Carolina due to a downturn in demand for US meal due to big South American crop

 

EIA said US November biodiesel production was 128 million gallons vs. 132 million gallons in October

 

EIA said 531 million lbs of bean oil was used in November vs. 551 million lbs in October

 

TALK Brazilian port workers may strike tomorrow

 

IGC crop estimates

  • ‘13/14 global wheat crop estimated at 707 MMT (record) vs. previous estimate of 698 MMT
  • ‘13/14 China wheat crop estimated at 122 MMT vs. previous estimate of 120 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Canada wheat crop estimated at 37.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 33.0 MMT
  • ‘13/14 global corn crop estimated at 959 MMT vs. previous estimate of 950 MMT
  • ‘13/14 China corn crop estimated at 217.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 210.0 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Canada corn crop estimated at 14.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 13.1 MMT
  • Expects ‘14/15 global wheat area to be 2% higher than ‘13/14 area

 

March beans took out the recent low of 1262 ½. The low of the day is 1260.

 

March beans closed below the 200 day moving average of 1277 ½. March beans settled at 1275

 

March meal closed above the 50 day moving average of 421.00. March meal settled at 425.50

 

March corn closed above the 50 day moving average of 428 ¼ . March corn settled at 433 ½

 

March Chicago wheat made new contract lows today. The low of the day was 550 ¼

 

March Minneapolis wheat made new contract lows today. The low of the day was 595 ¼

 

Today was the first day of the Rogers roll. The roll ends on Monday. They are rolling long March positions into May in beans, corn, wheat, meal, and bean oil . On the close

  • 2,500 HK beans traded on the screen at 14
  • 150 HK beans traded in the pit at 13 ½
  • 8,000 HK corn traded on the screen at 5 ¾ -6
  • 1,300 HK corn traded in the pit at 6
  • 1,650 HK wheat traded on the screen at 2 ¾
  • 400 HK wheat traded in the pit at 2 ¾ -3
  • 1,200 HK meal traded on the screen at 14.60
  • 1,400 HK bean oil traded on the screen at 31
  • 100 HK bean oil traded in the pit at 31

 

Tomorrow is month end.

 

China and Malaysian markets will be closed tomorrow through Feb 3rd. Markets resume on Feb 4th.

 

Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST

 

Stats Canada comes out on Tuesday Feb 4th with their Dec 31st stocks estimates. Based on a Reuters survey of 8 analysts estimates for the report are

  • All wheat stocks estimated at 28.9 MMT (22 year high) up 40% from a year ago
  • Durum wheat stocks estimated at 5.5 MMT up 40% from a year ago
  • Canola stocks estimated at 12.3 MMT (record) up 50% from a year ago and vs. previous record in 2009 of 10.1 MMT
  • Oat stocks estimated at 3.0 MMT up 46% from a year ago
  • Barley stocks estimated at 7.1 MMT up 35% from a year ago

 

 

Open outcry option players

 

JP Morgan sold 900 SX 1100/1040 put spreads at 27

 

JP Morgan sold 1,000 SH 1330 calls at 2 and bought 90 SH at 1262

 

FI sold 1,800 SH 1300 calls at 10 ¾ -12 ½

 

ABN bought 1,000 SH 1250 puts at 11 ¾ – 12

 

JP Morgan bought 2,000 CH 430/425 put spreads at 1 ¾

 

ADM bought 1,000 CH 410 puts at 1

 

New Edge bought 1,500 CH 440/450 call spreads at 1 ½

 

RJO bought 1,000 CN 400 puts at 5 ¾

 

FI sold 1,000 CU 400 puts at 10 ¾ and sold 220 CU 447

 

RJO bought 1,100 CK 440/410 put spreads at 11

 

Knight bought 600 CK 430 puts sold 1,200 CK 400 puts at 4 7/8 debit and sold 96 CK 440

 

Mizuho bought 400 WH 580 calls and sold 400 WH 540 puts at a ½ credit

 

ABN sold 400 WH 585 calls at 3 bought 72 WH at 555

 

Tenco sold 500 SMK 380 puts at 4.00

 

Rand bought 600 SMN 430 calls at 7.00-7.25

 

New Edge bought 300 BOJ 38 calls and sold 300 BON 35 puts at 20 debit

 

Estimated fund activity

 

Wheat bought 1,000

Corn bought 7,000

Beans bought 4,000

Meal bought 1,000

Bean oil sold 1,000