From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

 

Weekly US export inspections report

  • Wheat 14.037 MB expecting 14-19 MB
  • Corn 28.701 MB expecting 23-28 MB
  • Beans 73.839 MB expecting 50-58 MB

 

Oil World estimates

  • ‘13/14 global bean crop at 287.8 MMT vs. previous of 287.6 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 267.1 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Brazil bean crop estimated at 89.5 MMT vs. previous of 89.0 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 81.6 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Argentine bean crop at 54.0 MMT vs. previous of 55.5 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 48.5 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Paraguay bean crop at 9.3 MMT unchanged from previous and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 9.0 MMT
  • ‘13/14 US bean crop at 89.5 MMT vs. previous of 88.7 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 82.6 MMT
  • ‘13/14 China bean crop at 12.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 12.6 MMT
  • ‘13/14 India bean crop at 10.5 MMT unchanged from previous and vs. 11.0 MMT in ‘12/13
  • ‘13/14 global soybean crush estimated at 235.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 236.5 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crush of 225.0 MMT
  • ‘13/14 global bean ending stocks estimated at 79.2 MMT vs. previous of 78.2 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 ending stocks of 63.1 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Brazil bean ending stocks estimated at 24.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 23.9 MMT and vs. 19.8 MMT in ‘12/13
  • ‘13/14 Argentine bean ending stocks estimated at 31.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 30.7 and vs. ‘12/13 ending stocks of 24.3 MMT
  • ‘13/14 US bean ending stocks estimated at 4.1 MMT vs. previous of 4.3 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 ending stocks of 3.8 MMT
  • ‘13/14 global sunseed output estimated at 41.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 40.2 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 output of 35.4 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Argentine sunseed output estimated at 2.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.9 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 output of 2.9 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Ukraine sunseed output estimated at 11.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 9.8 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 output of 8.4 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Russia sunseed output estimated at 9.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 9.3 MMT and vs. 8.0 MMT in ‘12/13
  • ‘13/14 EU 28 sunseed output estimated at 8.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 8.6 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 output of 7.0 MMT
  • ‘13/14 global sunseed crush estimated at 37.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 36.2 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crush of 32.2 MMT
  • ‘13/14 global sunseed ending stocks estimated at 3.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.9 MMT and vs. 2.4 MMT in ‘12/13

 

Ag Canada first estimates for Canada’s ‘14/15 crop

  • All wheat crop at 29.7 MMT vs. ‘13/14 crop of 37.5 MMT
  • All wheat harvested area at 9.9 MH vs. ‘13/14 area of 10.4 MH
  • All wheat exports at 22.2 MMT vs. ‘13/14 exports of 21.9 MMT
  • All wheat domestic use at 9.5 MMT vs. 9.3 MMT in ‘13/14
  • All wheat ending stocks at 9.6 MMT vs. ‘13/14 ending stocks of 11.5 MMT
  • All wheat crop excluding durum at 24.7 MMT vs. ‘13/14 31.0 MMT
  • All wheat excluding durum harvested area at 8.0 MH vs. ‘13/14 area of 8.4 MH
  • Durum crop at 5.0 MMT vs. ‘13/14 crop of 6.5 MMT
  • Durum harvested area at 1.9 MH vs. ‘13/14 area of 2.0 MH
  • Corn crop at 13.1 MMT vs. ‘13/14 crop of 14.2 MMT
  • Corn harvested acres at 1.4 MH vs. ‘13/14 acres of 1.5 MH
  • Corn exports at 1.0 MMT vs. ‘13/14 exports of 800,000 tons
  • Corn domestic use at 12.5 MMT vs. ‘13/14 use of 12.1 MMT
  • Corn ending stocks at 3.4 MMT unchanged from ‘13/14
  • Canola crop at 16.0 MMT vs. ‘13/14 crop of 18.0 MMT
  • Canola harvested acres at 8.7 MH vs. ‘13/14 area of 8.0 MH
  • Canola exports at 8.5 MMT vs. ‘13/14 exports of 8.2 MMT
  • Canola domestic use at 7.6 MMT vs. ‘13/14 use of 7.5 MMT
  • Canola ending stocks at 3.0 MMT unchanged from ‘13/14
  • Bean crop estimated at 4.9 MMT vs. ‘13/14 crop of 5.2 MMT
  • Bean exports estimated at 3.1 MMT vs. ‘13/14 exports 3.4 MMT

 

Safras e Mercado

  • Said Brazilian bean crop is 3% harvested unchanged from a year ago
  • Estimated Brazilian bean crop at 91.8 MMT
  • Estimated Brazilian bean exports at 46.0 MMT
  • Estimated Brazilian meal exports at 14.0 MMT
  • Estimated Brazilian bean oil exports at 1.25 MMT
  • Estimated bean oil use for biodiesel production at 2.1 MMT vs. 2.0 MMT a year ago
  • Estimated Brazil’s total corn crop at 75.5 MMT vs. 82.0 MMT a year ago

 

AgRural said Brazil’s bean harvest is 3% complete vs. 2% a year ago

 

AgRural estimated Brazil bean crop at 88.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Rumors continue of China canceling of switching US beans – nothing has been confirmed

 

Algeria bought 20,000 Ukrainian corn for March shipment

 

Russia Federal Statistics Service said Russia exported 17.024 MMT of grain between July 1st – Jan 19th up 31.65% from a year ago

 

South Korea Ag Min said today that bird flu strain H5N8 has been detected on six poultry farms . No human cases has been reported. South Korea to slaughter over 1.4 million birds including the 644,000 already killed. The first case of this bird flu was discovered in South Korea on Jan 17th

 

PED virus has been found in Quebec and Ontario

 

Natural gas pipeline explosion in Manitoba Canada on Saturday afternoon

 

March corn closed above the 50 day moving average of 428 ½. CH settled at 431 ¾

 

March Minneapolis wheat made new contract lows today of 606.

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 1,000
  • Corn bought 4,000
  • Beans bought 4,000
  • Meal bought 2,000
  • Bean oil sold 2,000

 

FOMC 2 day policy meeting begins tomorrow.

 

Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST

 

Open outcry option players

  • FI sold close to 8,000 March beans 1280 puts at 16-18 ¾. My broker believes this is a closing position. As of Friday’s close the open interest in SH 1280 puts were 19,479 open, down 371 contracts from Thursday.
  • FI bought 2,000 March bean 1300 calls at 14 ¾ – 16. My broker believes this is a closing positions. As of Friday’s close there were 9,644 calls open, up 1,620 contracts from Thursday.
  • FI sold 2,000 March bean 1240/1200 put spreads at 3 ¾ – 3 7/8 . My broker believes this is a closing position. Open interest in the March 1200 puts is 22,837 and open interest in the 1240 puts is 21,418
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 March bean 1330 calls at 6 3/8 and sold 230 March bean futures at 1288
  • Rand bought 1,500 March beans 1340 calls at 5-5 ¼
  • Rosenthal bought 500 March bean 1160 puts at ¾
  • ABN bought 600 March corn 450 calls at 1 ¼
  • RJO bought 500 Dec corn 430 puts sold 500 Dec corn 400 puts and sold 500 Dec corn 500 calls at even
  • RJO sold 500 week 5 corn 430 straddles at 6 1/8 -6 ¼
  • ABN bought 500 March wheat 570 calls at 13 ¾ and sold 265 March futures at 571
  • New Edge bought 1,500 May wheat 650 calls , bought 1,500 May wheat 700 calls and sold 500 May wheat 580 calls at 1 debit, and sold 180 May futures at 577
  • RJO bought 500 July wheat 620 calls and sold 500 July wheat 550 puts at 2 ¼ and sold 330 July futures at 576
  • ABN sold 500 May wheat 650 calls at 4 ½
  • EDF Mann sold 400 March soymeal 430 puts at 5.25
  • EDF Mann bought 500 Aug bean oil 3850 calls and sold 500 Aug bean oil 35 puts at 100-105 debit
  • RJO sold 500 March bean oil 38/37 put spreads at 58
  • ADM sold 10 October crush 86 calls at 5 ½
  • FI bought 100 March crush 50 puts at 3 ¼

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

H vol 15 ¾ 430 str 14-14 ½

J vol 15 ¼ 440 str 20-21

K vol 17 440 str 29-30

N vol 19 ¾ 440 str 43-44

U vol 22 ½ 450 str 59 ½-60 ½

Z vol 21 450 str 67 ½-68 ½

 

Beans

H vol 14 3/8 1290 str 39-39 ¾

J vol 14 ½ 1270 str 55-58

K vol 15 1270 str 73 ½-75

N vol 15 ¾ 1260 str 99-101

X vol 15 ¾ 1100 str 118-120

 

Wheat

H vol 21 ½ 560 str 24-26

K vol 20 ¾ 570 str 45-47

N vol 22 ¾ 580 str 65-67

U vol 23 ½ 580 str 80-83

Z vol 22 ¾ 600 str 95-98

 

KC Wheat

H vol 19 ½ 620 str 25-26

K vol 19 1/02 620 str 46-48

N vol 21 620 str 64-66

Z vol 20 ¼ 640 str 91-96

 

Minneapolis wheat

H vol 16 ½ 610 str 20-26

K vol 17 ½ 610 str 40-46

N vol 18 620 str 50-59

U vol 18 ½ 630 str 65-73

Z vol 18 ¾ 640 str 80-89

 

Meal

H vol 21 430 str 18.5-19.5

K vol 19.75 410 str 31-32

N vol 18.25 400 str 37-39

Q vol 18 390 str 38-40

U vol 17.5 370 str 38-41

Z vol 17.5 350 str 42-44

 

Bean oil

H vol 15 37 str 110-125

J vol 15.5 37.5 str 170-185

K vol 15.5 37.5 str 215-235

N vol 16.25 38 str 285-305

Q vol 16.25 38 str 325-350

U vol 16.25 38 str 350-380

Z vol 16.25 38 str 420-450

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN             CLOSE

MCH         64.5-65           67.5-68.5

MAY         49.5-50.5        50.5-52

JLY             47-48               47-48.5

AUG         59-60               58.5-60

SEP           87-88                87.5-88

OCT          82.5-84.5         82-83

DEC          76-77                75-75.5

JAN          69-70                68-68.5