From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • Midday weather reduced rains in Argentina.
  • Today was the last day of the fund rebalancing.
  • China did cancel 2 more US DDGS containers overnight
  • TALK Brazilian millers may cancel US HRW wheat purchases to buy Argentine wheat
  • Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop at 90.0 MMT unchanged from his previous estimate
  • Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian corn crop at 68.5 MMT unchanged from his previous estimate
  • Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Argentine bean crop at 54.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 53.0 MMT
  • Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Argentine corn crop at 22.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 23.0 MMT
  • Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Paraguay bean crop at 9.5 MMT vs. previous estimate 10.0 MMT
  • Oil World said July – Nov EU rapeseed crush at 10.3 MMT vs. 9.9 MMT a year ago
  • Oil World said EU July – Nov sunseed crush at 2.9 MMT vs. 2.7 MMT a year ago
  • Oil World said EU July – Nov bean crush at 5.1 MMT vs. 5.2 MMT a year ago
  • Macquarie estimated 2014 US corn area at 95.0 MA
  • March beans settled above the 50 day moving average of 1294 and above the 100 day moving average of 1296. March beans settled at 1307.
  • March corn closed above the 50 day moving average of 430 ¼ .
  • Jan futures expired today at noon CST .
    • SF went out at 1339 up 12 ¼
    • SMF went out at 452.50 up 5.60
    • BOF went out at 3740 down 17
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Surveyor SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out tomorrow with their Malaysian Jan 1-15th palm oil export estimates
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Open outcry option players
    • FI bought 2,000 SH 1280 puts at 13 ¾ -14 ½
    • FI sold 1,000 SH 1300 calls at 29-30 ½
    • ADM sold 7,000 CH 435 straddles at 18 ¾ -20 ¼
    • ADM sold 1,000 CK 430 p / 450 c strangles at 23 5/8
    • Tenco sold 2,000 WK 590 puts at 2 3/8
    • Rosenthal bought 500 WG 600 calls and sold 1,000 WG 630 calls at 1 debit
    • EDF Mann sold 200 SMH 440 calls at 4.50-4.75
    • JP Morgan sold 500 BOK 37 puts at 42-45
  • NOPA December crush report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST . Based on a Reuters survey expecting
    • Crush average estimate 163.9 MB , range of estimates are 160.0-166.5 MB. November crush was 160.145 MB and Dec 2012 crush was 159.899 MB
    • Bean oil stocks average estimate 1.555 billion lbs. , range of estimates are 1.418-1.648 billion lbs. November bean oil stocks were 1.486 B and Dec 2012 bean oil stocks were 2.600 B
    • Meal exports – no estimates are given. November meal exports were 813,323 tons and Dec 2012 exports were 801,245 tons

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 2K
  • Corn sold 4K
  • Beans bought 6K
  • Meal bought 3K
  • Bean oil sold 1K

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN            CLOSE

JAN        60-70               —

MCH      51-51.5        54-54.5

MAY       44-45           44.5-45.5

JLY           45-47          45-46

AUG       57-59          56-57

SEP         84-87           85-86.5

OCT        78-79.5       78-80

DEC        74-75           72.5-73.5

 

Crush players

  • ABN sold 10 May at 44.5
  • ADM sold 100 March at 50
  • JP Morgan sold 20 March at 53.5
  • Tenco sold 50 Oct at 79
  • ADM sold 25 May 56 puts at 12.5