From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 10/28/14

News:

 

Cordonnier’s weekly crop estimates

  • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 93.0 MMT vs. his previous estimate of 94.0 MMT
  • Said Brazilian bean crop is 15-17% planted vs. about 30% a year ago
  • Said Mato Grosso bean crop is 15% planted vs. 50% a year ago
  • ‘14/15 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 73.0 MMT vs. his previous estimate of 74.0 MMT
  • ‘14/15 Argentine bean crop estimated at 56.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Said that Argentina’s bean crop is 2-3% planted
  • ‘14/15 Argentine bean area estimated at 20.5 MH unchanged from previous estimate and up 3.5% from a year ago
  • ‘14/15 Argentina corn crop estimated at 21.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 22.0 MMT
  • Said that Argentina’s corn crop is 33% planted
  • Estimated total South American ‘14/15 bean crop at 163.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 164.5 MMT
  • Estimated total South American ‘14/15 corn crop at 98.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 100.1 MMT
  • Estimated 2014 US corn yield at 175.0 BPA unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated 2014 US corn crop at 14.49 BB unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated 2014 US bean yield at 47.5 BPA unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated 2014 US bean crop at 3.96 BB unchanged from previous estimate

 

Algeria bought 300,000 tons of optional origin durum wheat for Feb-March shipment

 

Jordan canceled tender to buy 100,000 tons of optional origin hard milling wheat

 

Jordan issued a new tender to buy 100,000 tons of hard milling wheat optional origin

 

Reports of US meal cargoes being switched to South American meal cargoes continue.

 

IMEA said Mato Grosso farmers have sold 13% of their new crop soybeans vs. 41% a year ago

 

Abiove estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 91.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Argentina September bean crush at 3.344 MMT down 6.6% from a year ago

 

Argentina Jan- September bean crush at 29.095 MMT up 7.8% from a year ago

 

Argentina September sunseed crush at 118,398 tons down 37.8% from a year ago

 

Argentina Jan- September sunseed crush at 1.798 MMT down 19.8% from a year ago

 

Market concerns that cold weather may be stressing Russia and Ukraine’s winter grain crops

 

SovEcon estimated Russia’s October grain exports at 3.5 MMT vs. September exports of 3.8 MMT

 

Louis Dreyfus Canadian canola plant offline indefinitely after explosion and fire on Friday

 

CEC estimated South Africa’s 2015 corn area at 2.6 MH vs. 2014 area of 2.5 MH

 

CEC estimated South Africa’s 2014 wheat crop at 1.78 MMT vs. previous estimate of 1.79 MMT

 

Reuters reported good farmer selling in US soybeans today and said that bean gains were limited due to weakness in the cash market

 

Some elevators in the western Corn Belt reported they were not taking soybeans on Tuesday as their bins were filled after active harvest the past four to five days. Farmers continue to report super-large yields – 200-plus bushel corn and soybean yields ranging 60 to 70 bushels an acre, merchants said. – Reuters

 

St. Lawrence Seaway union workers threaten to strike Friday afternoon.

 

Dec Minneapolis wheat closed above the 50 day moving average of 576 ¾ . Dec Minneapolis wheat settled at 577 ¾ .

 

Dec KC wheat closed above the 50 day moving average of 597 ½. Dec KC wheat settled at 602.

 

Dec bean oil closed above the 50 day moving average of 3256. Dec bean oil settled at 3279.

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 3,000
  • Corn bought 4,000
  • Beans bought 6,000
  • Meal sold 1,000
  • Bean oil bought 4,000

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST.
  • Tomorrow is the last day of the two day palm oil seminar in Kuala Lumpur.
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting

o   Crude a build of 3.8 million barrels

o   Gas a draw of 700,000 barrels

o   Distillates a draw of 1.45 million barrels

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Tomorrow is the last day of the two day FOMC policy meeting.
  • Fed announcement tomorrow at 1 pm CST.

 

Open outcry option players:

  • TJM sold 10,000 Jan bean 980/920 put spreads at 12 ¾ -14 ¼ (last Friday TJM bought 10,000 of these put spreads at 17 ¾ -22)
  • ABN bought 1,500 Jan bean 980/920 put spreads at 14 5/8-15 1/8
  • Rosenthal bought 1,500 Jan bean 980/920 put spreads at 13 ½
  • Rand bought 1,500 Jan bean 1000 puts at 27 ½-28 and bought 600 Jan bean futures at 1024
  • ABN bought 1,500 March bean 1060/1100 call spreads at 12 7/8 and sold 150 March bean futures at 1022
  • ABN sold 1,500 July bean 860 puts at 11 ½-12
  • Jefferies sold 2,000 March short dated soybean 980/1020 call spreads at 19 ½
  • Marex bought 2,000 Nov 2015 soybean 640/740/840 put flys at 10 (they bought 1,500 at 10 ½ yesterday)
  • Bunge bought 4,500 July bean 940/920 put spreads at 5 5/8
  • FI bought 1,000 March corn 350 puts and sold 1,000 March corn 430 calls at 2- 2 ¼ debit.
  • FI bought 2,000 Dec corn 390 calls at 4 ½ and sold 500 Dec corn futures at 369 ½
  • Bunge bought 1,000 Dec corn 340/300 put spreads at 2 ¾.
  • Jefferies bought 1,000 Dec corn 300/340 put spreads at 2 ¾
  • Rand sold 2,000 Dec 2015 corn 400 calls at 45-45 ½
  • Dowd Wescott sold 400 Dec wheat 430 puts at 1/8
  • ICAP bought 600 Jan wheat 545 straddles at 38 ¼
  • Tenco sold 500 Dec KC wheat 585 puts at 6-6 ¼ and sold 100 Dec KC futures at 599
  • FI bought 400 Dec meal 400 calls and sold 800 Dec meal 450 calls at 5.25
  • FC Stone sold 750 Jan meal 340 puts/ 390 call strangles at 16.00-16.50
  • Macquarie sold 1,000 Dec meal 340 puts at 2.50-2.60 and sold 120 Dec meal futures at 383.00
  • Rosenthal bought 1,000 Dec meal 310-270 put spreads at 2.50
  • Drax bought 1,000 Jan bean oil 32 puts at 70
  • FI sold 1,000 Jan bean oil 31 puts and bought 1,000 Jan bean oil 3550 calls at 2 credit
  • FI bought 1,000 March bean oil 36 calls at 63

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

Z vol 29 ½ 365 str 22 ¼ -23

F vol 24 ½ 380 str 30-31 ½

G vol 24 ¾ 380 str 36 ½-38

H vol 24 ½ 380 str 41 ½-42 ½

K vol 23 ¾ 390 str 51-52 ½

N vol 24 390 str 60 ½-61 ½

U vol 24 ¾ 400 str 70-71 ½

Z15 vol 23 410 str 76-77

 

Beans:

Z vol 25 ¾ 1020 str 54-55

F vol 23 5/8 1020 str 76 ½ -77 ½

H vol 22 ¾ 1020 str 104-105

X15 vol 19 ¼ 1000 str 148-152

 

Wheat:

Z vol 23 ½ 530 str 25-27

H vol 22 ½ 540 str 54-56

K vol 22 ¼ 550 str 66-69

N vol 22 ½ 560 str 80-83

 

KC wheat:

Z vol 20 600 str 24-26

H vol 19 ¾ 610 str 53-56

K vol 20 ¼ 610 str 67-71

N vol 20 ¼ 600 str 77-81

 

Minneapolis wheat:

Z vol 19 ¼ 580 str 22-26

H vol 18 ¾ 590 str 47-53

K vol 18 ¼ 600 str 57-63

N vol 20 600 str 72-77

 

Meal:

Z vol 40 370 str 29.5-31.5

F vol 30 360 str 32-34

H vol 25 340 str 38-40

K vol 23 340 str 43-45

N vol 22 340 str 48-50

 

Bean oil:

Z vol 24 33 str 160-175

F vol 21.75 33 str 225-255

H vol 20.5 3350 str 300-325

K vol 19.75 3350 str 355-380

N vol 19 3350 str 400-440

 

Crush quotes:

OPEN                CLOSE

DEC         1.95-1.98          1.78-1.80

FZZ          1.89-1.92          1.70-1.72

JAN         1.46-1.48          1.33-1.35

MCH       1.02-1.055        96.5-98

MAY       83-85                  82-83.5

JLY          79-80.5               79-80

AUG      79-81                   79-81

SEP         90-1.00               92-1.00

OCT        96.5-1.00           94.5-97

DEC5       92-94                 91-93

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • ABN sold 170 Dec crush at 1.795
  • FC Stone sold 10 Jan crush at 1.43
  • RJO sold 180 Jan crush at 1.335-1.385
  • RJO bought 50 July crush at 1.79-1.7925
  • No oil share players in the pit today

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE