From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 10/22/14

News:

 

USDA attaché in Mexico estimated Mexico’s ‘14/15 corn crop at 23.0 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 22.5 MMT

 

Industry analysts said China’s government is likely to stockpile 40.0 MMT of corn during the ‘14/15 season vs. last year’s record increase of 60.0 MMT

 

Industry analysts said China’s restriction on US corn imports are unlikely to be lifted any time soon.

 

Somar Meteorologists said widespread rains should spread out over Brazil’s crop areas between Oct 27-31.

Report on Reuters reads –mega harvest leaves US farmers battling bugs in storage binds

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated 2014 wheat crop at 23.7 MMT vs. 22.3 MMT in 2013, including 12.8 MMT of milling wheat or 54% of total crop vs. 75% in 2013.

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated ‘14/15 wheat exports at 11.76 MMT vs. ‘13/14 exports of 9.2 MMT

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said Kazakhstan exported 1.81 MMT of grain between July 1st – Oct 20th vs. 2.25 MMT a year ago

 

Japan imported 2,120,309 tons of grain in September up 2.2% from a year ago , including 1,563,442 tons from the US up 74.3% from a year ago

 

Japan imported 161,409 tons of soybeans in September down 28.9% from a year ago, including 76,046 tons from the US down 31.3% from a year ago

 

Japan receives no offers in SBS wheat and barley tender for Jan shipment

 

Japan is seeking 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of feed barley via SBS tender for Jan shipment

 

CIARA-CEC said Argentine grain exports are exported at $5.7 billion in the fourth quarter up 42.5% from a year ago

 

Russia bought 15,795 tons of intervention grain , total bought since September 30th is 177,235 tons

 

Nov beans closed below the 50 day moving average of 980 ¼. Nov beans settled at 962 ¾

 

Jan beans closed below the 50 day moving average of 988 ¼ . Jan beans settled at 969 ¾

 

Dec wheat closed above the 50 day moving average of 517. Dec wheat settled at 522 ¼

 

Dec KC wheat closed above the 50 day moving average of 600 ¼ . Dec KC settled at 605 ¼

 

Dec meal closed below the 100 day moving average of 348.60. Dec meal settled at 338.00

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 2,000
  • Corn sold 5,000
  • Beans sold 4,000
  • Meal sold 3,000
  • Bean oil bought 2,000

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Malaysian markets resume trade tomorrow.
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST. Expecting
    • Wheat 350,000 – 500,000 tons
    • Corn 800,000 – 1.0 million tons
    • Beans 800,000 – 1.0 million tons
    • Meal 150,000 – 250,000 tons
    • Bean oil 10,000 – 50,000 tons
    • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
    • FOMC 2 day policy meeting Tuesday and Wednesday Oct 28-29th.
    • Fed announcement Wednesday Oct 29th at 1 pm CST.
    • Thursday October 30th is position day for November bean and rice futures. Traders should be out of long positions by the close on this day, or risk delivery
    • First notice day for November futures is October 31st

 

Open outcry option players:

  • Macquarie bought 1,000 Nov bean 980 calls at 7-7 ½
  • Rosenthal bought 1,000 July bean 940 puts at 40 ½-42 ¾
  • JP Morgan sold 1,500 Jan bean 860 puts at 5 5/8 -5 ¾ and sold 150 Jan futures at 980
  • ABN bought 1,000 Dec corn 370/390 call spreads at 4 5/8
  • FI bought 1,000 Dec corn 340 puts at 4 ¼ -4 ½
  • ICAP sold 1,000 Dec corn 350/380/410 put flys at 7 ¾ -8 ½
  • Jefferies bought 1,000 Dec corn 340/315 put spreads at 4
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 Dec corn 350 puts at 8 ¾
  • RO bought 1,000 Jan corn 370 calls at 13 ¾
  • Drax bought 2,000 Dec corn 350 puts at 8 ¾ -9 3/8
  • RJO sold 800 Dec wheat 500/550 call spreads at 19 5/8 -20
  • RJO sold 900 Dec wheat 520/550 call spreads at 8 ½
  • ICAP bought 1,000 March wheat 560 calls at 20 ¼ tied to futures at 542
  • JP Morgan sold 2,000 Nov wheat 540 calls at 2 tied to futures at 528
  • Tenco bought 500 March KC wheat 570 puts at 11 ¼ tied to futures at 611
  • JP Morgan bought 500 Nov meal 360 calls at 1.30-1.80
  • Bunge bought 500 Dec meal 300 puts at 1.25
  • FC Stone bought 500 Dec meal 340 straddles at 25.50
  • ICAP bought 2,500 Dec meal 320 calls and sold 2,500 Jan meal 320 calls at 7.00 debit
  • RJO bought 1,000 week 1 soymeal 335 puts at 5.00
  • JP Morgan bought 200 July bean oil 31.50 puts and sold 200 July bean oil 35 calls at even money
  • RJO sold 20 Dec crush 120 calls at 22

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

Z vol 26 ¾ 355 str 21 ¾-22 ¾

F vol 23 ¾ 370 str 29-30 ½

H vol 23 ¾ 370 str 39 ¾-40 ¾

K vol 23 380 str 48 ½-50

U vol 24 ¼ 390 str 68-70

Z15 vol 22 ¾ 400 str 74-75 ½

 

Beans:

Z vol 24 ¼ 960 str 54-56

F vol 22 ¾ 970 str 74-76

H vol 21 7/8 980 str 99-100

K vol 22 980 str 114-117

N vol 20 ¾ 980 str 129-132

 

Wheat:

X vol 29 520 str 11-13

Z vol 24 520 str 28-30

H vol 22 ½ 540 str 55-58

K vol 21 ¾ 540 str 67-68

N vol 22 ½ 550 str 80-81

 

KC wheat:

X vol 24 ½ 600 str 10-12

Z vol 21 600 str 28-31

H vol 19 ¾ 610 str 54-57

K vol 19 ¾ 610 str 66-70

N vol 19 ¾ 600 str 77-81

 

Minneapolis wheat:

Z vol 19 ¾ 570 str 25-29

H vol 19 580 str 48-53

K vol 18 ½ 590 str 58-64

N vol 19 ½ 600 str 70-76

 

Meal:

Z vol 30 340 str 23.5-25.5

F vol 23.75 330 str 27.5-29.5

H vol 22.5 320 str 33.5-35.5

K vol 21 320 str 37.5-39

N vol 20.5 320 str 42-45

 

Bean oil:

Z vol 21.5 32 str 155-170

F vol 20.25 32.5 str 215-235

H vol 19.5 32.5 str 285-300

K vol 19.25 33 str 345-375

N vol 18.5 33 str 385-415

 

Crush quotes:

                Open                     Close

 

DEC       1.485-1.50            134.5-135.5

FZZ        1.41-1.43               127-128

JAN       1.21-1.235            112.5-113.5

MCH      91-93.5                 89-90

MAY      79-80                     79-80

JLY          76.5-78                 77-79

AUG       75-80                    79-80

SEP         84-90                     90-92

OCT        84.5-90                 89-91

DEC5      86.5-88.5             88-89

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • RJO bot 100 Dec crush at 146.5
  • Macquarie bot 50 May bean oil sold 30 May meal at 33.80%

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE