From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 10/21/14

News:

 

Chinese Q3 economic growth slows to 7.3%, lowest in five years

 

Russian Finance Minister delays bond auction due to unstable market conditions

 

Reports that Argentina government has released 400,000 tons of wheat for export.

 

Egypt GASC bought 180,000 tons of wheat for Nov shipment

  • 60,000 from France
  • 60,000 from Russia
  • 60,000 from Romania

 

Morocco bought 176,000 tons of local soft wheat

 

Japan seeks 109,715 tons of food wheat for Nov-Dec shipment. Breakdown

  • 24,620 tons of western white US wheat
  • 30,830 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 32,795 tons of dark northern spring US wheat
  • 21,470 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Taiwan MFIG seeks 60,000 tons of US, Brazil, Argentina, or South Africa corn for Dec-Jan shipment

 

Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of optional origin durum wheat for February shipment

 

Syria plans to imports 1.0 MMT of wheat in 2014

 

Peru eyeing corn for Feb shipment

 

Venezuela and Vietnam seeking soymeal

 

Brazil’s Aprosoja said Brazil’s bean crop is 10% planted

 

Aprosoja estimated ‘14/15 Brazil’s bean crop at 88.0-91.0 MMT vs. CONAB estimate of 88.8-92.4 MMT

 

AgRural said Brazil’s bean crop is 10% planted (slowest in 6 years) vs. 19% a year ago and vs. 20% average

 

AgRural estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 90-98 MMT

 

IMEA said Mato Grosso farmers have sold 16% of their ‘14/15 bean crop at the end of September vs. 41% by the end of September 2013.

 

Article on Reuters – rainy weather that slowed US Midwest harvesting this month also has stalled the planting of winter wheat, a delay that could threaten crop yields.

 

Based on a Bloomberg survey Indonesia’s September palm oil data estimates

  • Palm oil stocks estimated at 2.2 MMT vs. 2.50 MMT in August and vs. 2.23 MMT in September 2013
  • Palm oil output estimated at 2.3 MMT vs. 2.55 MMT in August and vs. 2.40 MMT in September 2013
  • Palm oil exports estimated at 1.70 MMT vs. 1.72 MMT in August and vs. 1.64 MMT in September 2013

 

Indonesia’s Palm Oil Association said Indonesia exported 1.70 MMT of palm oil in September down 1.7% from August

 

India’s year to date corn exports at 2.5 MMT vs. 4.7 MMT a year ago

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated ‘14/15 grain exports at 34.3 MMT (record) vs. 32.8 MMT a year ago

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of Oct 20th Ukraine harvested 51.17 MMT of grain on 12.816 MH with an average yield of 3.99 TPH. A year ago Ukraine harvested 46.42 MMT of grain on 12.804 MH with an average yield of 3.63 TPH

 

Russia’s Agriculture watchdog said Russia will ban Ukraine imports of all fruits and vegetables starting tomorrow

 

Russia bought 20,115 tons of intervention grains , total since Sept 30th is 161,440 tons bought.

 

Japan’s Ag Min said Japan’s use of corn in animal feed in August was 45% vs. 45.4% in July and vs. 41.8% in August 2013

 

57 ethanol receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

 

From farmers in Southeast Missouri – bean harvest should be completed by this week. Amazing yields being reported of 75.0 BPA+ vs. average of 50.0 BPA

 

Chinese industry analysts – weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Oct 11-Oct 17th total crush volume at 1,474,150 tons down 23.45% from the week ago
  • For the week Oct 11 –Oct 17th total crush capacity utilization at 50.03% down 9.50% from a week ago
  • Total 2014 crush volume (Jan 1st –Oct 17th 2014) at 56,220,991 tons up 12.28% from a year ago
  • As of October 17th total imported soybean stocks at 5.466 MMT vs. 5.586 MMT from a week ago and up 11.94% from a year ago
  • Estimated October bean imports at 4.393 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated November bean imports at 6.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.0 MMT
  • Estimated December bean imports at 6.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.3 MMT

 

Dr. Cordonnier’s weekly crop estimates

  • Said Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop is 10% planted as of Friday vs. five year average of 20%
  • Estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 94.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 95.0 MMT
  • Estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 corn crop at 74.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 75.0 MMT
  • Estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 56.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 55.0 MMT
  • Estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 bean area at 20.5 MH vs. previous estimate of 20.1 MH
  • Estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 corn crop at 22.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated total ‘14/15 South American bean crop at 164.5 MMT vs. ‘13/14 crop of 154.7 MMT
  • Estimated total ‘14/15 South American corn crop at 100.1 MMT vs. ‘13/14 corn crop of 107.9 MMT
  • Estimated 2014 US corn yield at 175.0 BPA unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated 2014 US corn crop at 14.49 BB unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated 2014 US bean yield at 47.5 BPA unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated 2014 US bean crop at 3.96 BB unchanged from previous estimate

 

CME daily grain price limits set to decline on Nov 3 see link

http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/ser/SER-7220.html

    • Effective Sunday, November 2, 2014 for trade date Monday, November 3, 2014, the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. (CBOT or Exchange) will reset price limits for grain and oilseed futures.  This is the second and final reset in 2014 stipulated by the variable price limits mechanism implemented on the first trading day in May 2014.

 

The new futures price limits effective on trade date November 3, 2014 are shown in the table below and will remain in effect until the first trading day in May 2015.  There shall be no price limits on the current month contract on or after the second business day preceding the first day of the delivery month.  All mini-sized grain and oilseed futures will have the same daily price limits as their corresponding standard-sized futures.

In addition, please be reminded that the Exchange previously removed price limits for all grain and oilseed options contracts.

 

Commodity Current Initial Price Limit New Initial Price Limit (Effective 11/3/2014) New Expanded Price Limit (Effective 11/3/2014)
Corn $0.35/bushel $0.25/bushel $0.40/bushel
Soybeans $1.00/bushel $0.70/bushel $1.05/bushel
CBOT Wheat $0.45/bushel $0.35/bushel $0.55/bushel
KC Wheat $0.50/bushel $0.40/bushel $0.60/bushel
Soybean Oil $0.03/pound $0.025/pound $0.04/pound
Soybean Meal $30/ton $25/ton $40/ton
Oats $0.25/bushel $0.25/bushel $0.40/bushel
Rough Rice $1.10/cwt $0.90/cwt $1.35/cwt

 

 

Weekly US export inspection report from yesterday at 10 am CST

  • Wheat = 481,878 tons, expecting 425,000-550,000 tons
  • Corn =  717,605  tons, expecting 875,000- 1.025 million tons
  • Beans = 1,991,537 tons, expecting 1.1 – 1.3 million tons

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday afternoon

 

Corn

  • Harvest  31% complete  (expecting 35-40% complete) vs. 24% a week ago and vs. 53% five year average
  • Condition 74% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago as expected vs. 60% a year ago
  • Mature 93% vs. 87% a week ago and vs. 94% five year average

 

Bean

  • Harvest 53% complete (expecting 55-60% complete) vs. 40% a week ago and vs. 66% five year average
  • Condition 73% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago as expected vs. 57% a year ago
  • Dropping leaves 95% vs. 91% a week ago and vs. 97% five year average

 

Winter wheat

  • Planted 76% vs. 68% a week ago and vs. 77% five year average
  • Emerged 56% vs. 43% a week ago and vs. 50% five year average
  • FYI winter wheat conditions should be on next week’s report

 

Rice

  • Harvested 91% vs. 82% a week ago and vs. 85% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 47% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago vs. 44% a year ago
  • Bolls open 86% vs. 77% a week ago and vs. 90% five year average
  • Harvested 29% vs. 22% a week ago and vs. 31% five year average

 

On Friday October 17th Informa estimated US 2015 acreage

  • Corn at 87.8 million acres
  • Beans at 88.5 million acres
  • Wheat at 56.4 million acres
  • Winter wheat at 41.8 million acres
  • Hard red winter wheat at 30.3 million acres
  • Soft red winter wheat at 8.0 million acres
  • Western white wheat at 3.5 million acres

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 3K
  • Corn bought 9K
  • Beans bought 8K
  • Meal bought 4K
  • Bean oil bought 1K

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Malaysian markets closed tomorrow for holiday
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 3.0 MB
    • Gas a draw of 1.45 MB
    • Distillates a draw of 1.5 MB
    • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
    • November options expire on Friday at 115 pm CST
    • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services to estimate Malaysia’s Oct 1-25th palm oil exports on Monday Oct 27th
    • Deutsche Bank Dec 2014 corn – Dec 2015 corn roll to begin November 4th
    • USDA to restart US oilseed crush repots in July 2015
    • USDA to restart US ethanol reports in February 2015

 

Open outcry option players:

  • TJM bought 1,100 Nov bean 940 calls at 19-25 ¼
  • ABN bought 1,000 Jan bean 1000 calls at 21 ½ -23
  • ABN bought 1,000 Nov bean 950 puts at 5
  • Rosenthal bought 750 Nov bean 960/920 put spreads at 8-10
  • Jefferies bought 3,000 Nov corn 340 puts at 7/8 -1
  • Macquarie bought 4,000 Dec 2015 corn 420/500 call spreads and bought 4,000 Dec 2015 corn 350 puts at 2 1/8 debit and sold 2,000 Dec 2015 futures at 398
  • JP Morgan sold 1,000 Dec corn 360/380 call spreads at 5 1/8
  • ABN sold 2,000 Dec corn 320/350 put spreads at 8
  • FI bought 500 Dec wheat 550 calls (tied to futures at 521) and sold 500 Dec corn 365 calls (tied to futures at 354) at 7/8 credit
  • Goldman Sachs bought 800 March wheat 650 calls and sold 400 March wheat 550 calls at 14 1/8 credit tied to March futures at 535
  • ICAP bought 2,000 Dec wheat 530 calls and sold 1,000 Dec wheat 500 calls at 5 ¾ credit
  • ADM bought 600 March wheat 540 calls at 25
  • ICAP sold 800 Dec meal 340 puts at 10-10.30
  • Rosenthal bought 500 Dec meal 340 straddles at 20.50
  • JP Morgan bought 990 Dec meal 280 puts and sold 330 Dec meal 290 puts at .90 debit
  • RJO bought 300 May bean oil 34 calls and sold 300 March bean oil 35 calls at 63 debit
  • RJO bought 300 May bean oil 34 calls and sold 300 March bean oil 34 calls at 37 debit
  • RJO bought 300 May bean oil 34 calls at 115
  • RJO sold 20 Dec crush 100 calls at 32

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

X vol 28 ½ 355 str 8-9

Z vol 26 355 str 22-22 ½

F vol 23 370 str 28 ½-29 ½

H vol 23 ¼ 370 str 39-40

K vol 22 ¾ 380 str 48 ½-49 ½

N vol 23 390 str 58-59

U vol 24 390 str 68-69

Z15 vol 22 ½ 400 str 73 ½ -74 ½

 

Beans:

X vol 22 ¼ 960 str 18 ½-19 ½

Z vol 22 ½ 970 str 51 ½-53

F vol 21 ¾ 970 str 72-73

H vol 21 ½ 980 str 96-98

K vol 20 ¼ 980 str 111-114

N vol 20 1000 str 125-128

 

Wheat:

V vol 25 520 str 10-13

Z vol 22 ¾ 520 str 28-31

H vol 19 530 str 53-56

K vol 19 ½ 540 str 64-68

N vol 20 ½ 550 str 76-81

 

KC wheat:

V vol 25 600 str 12-15

Z vol 20 5/8 600 str 25-28

H vol 19 5/8 600 str 51-55

K vol 19 ½ 600 str 65-67

N vol 20 ½ 600 str 79-80

 

Minneapolis wheat:

Z vol 19 ¾ 570 str 25-29

H vol 19 580 str 48-53

K vol 18 ½ 590 str 58-64

N vol 19 ½ 600 str 70-76

 

Meal:

X vol 33 340 str 8-11

Z vol 27.25 330 str 21.5-23.5

F vol 24 330 str 36.5-38.5

H vol 23 320 str 33-35

K vol 20.75 320 str 37-40

 

Bean oil:

X vol 22.5 31.5 str 55-65

Z vol 21 31.5 str 155-165

F vol 20.25 32 str 210-230

H vol 19.5 32.5 str 280-295

K vol 19.25 32.5 str 340-380

 

Crush quotes:

OPEN                CLOSE

DEC        1.28-1.29         1.365-1.375

FZZ         1.21-1.23         1.281-.130

JAN        1.085-1.11       1.135-1.15

MCH      88-90.5             89-90.5

MAY      79.5-80.5         79-81

JLY          77-78.5             77-79

AUG       76-80                77-80

SEP          86-92.5            86-90.5

OCT         86-92               86-91

DEC5       86.5-88.5        87-87.5

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • RJO bought 150 March crush at 89.75-90
  • RJO sold 100 Dec crush at 1.36
  • RJO bought 10 Jan crush at 1.125
  • Jefferies sold 110 Jan/Dec crush at 122
  • ABN sold 10 Dec crush at 1.295
  • ABN sold 20 May crush at 79.75
  • ABN sold Dec 15 oil share 30 oil/meal at 33.80%

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE