From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 05/29/2014

News

 

Concerns of a further outbreak of a deadly pig virus in the US could curb  corn demand – Reuters

 

Argentina’s congress eliminated local taxes on biodiesel on Wednesday.

 

Truck drivers protested today at Brazil’s Paranagua port.

 

Agroconsult estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean planting area at a record high of 31.2 MH up 4% from ‘13/14

 

IGC estimated ‘14/15 global wheat production at 694 MMT vs. previous estimate of 697 MMT

 

IGC estimated ‘14/15 global corn production at 955 MMT vs. previous estimate of 950 MMT

 

IGC estimated ‘14/15 US wheat production at 55.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 59.0 MMT

 

Ukrainian grain traders union UZA estimated Ukraine’s ‘14/15 grain exports at 30-32 MMT unchanged from ‘13/14 estimate

 

UZA estimated Ukraine’s 2014 grain output at 60-62 MMT vs. 2013 grain output of 63.0 MMT

 

Saskatchewan, Canada crop planting as of May 26th was 64% complete vs. 22% a week ago and vs. 64% average

 

Sime Darby says El Nino could trim palm oil production by up to 15% over next 2 years.

 

July corn closed below the 200 day moving average of 472 ½ . July corn settled at 469 ½

 

July Minneapolis wheat closed above the 200 day moving average of 714 ½ . July Minneapolis wheat settled at 717 ½

 

Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out tomorrow morning with their Malaysian May palm oil export estimates

 

Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST . Expecting

  • Wheat 200,000 – 600,000 tons
  • Corn 450,000 – 850,000 tons
  • Beans old crop -100,000 to +100,000 and new crop 500,000-700,000 tons
  • Meal 150,000-350,000 tons
  • Bean oil 0-35,000 tons

 

Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST

 

Tomorrow is month end

 

Today was the first day of the Rogers roll. Rogers ends on Monday. On the close

  • 1,800 July/Nov bean spreads traded on the screen at 254 ¾
  • 100 July/Nov bean spreads traded in the pit at 254 ¾
  • 900 July /Dec meal spreads traded on the screen at 93.90
  • 2,100 July/Dec bean oil spreads traded on the screen at 31
  • 100 July/Dec bean oil spreads traded in the pit at 31
  • 5,500 July/Sept corn spreads traded on the screen at 6 ¼ -6 ½
  • 700 July/Sept corn spreads traded in the pit at 6 ¼ -6 ½
  • 2,700 July/Sept wheat spreads traded on the screen at 11 ¾ -12
  • 150 July/Sept wheat spreads traded in the pit at 11 ¾ -12
  • 800 July/Sept KC wheat spreads traded on the screen at 7 ½-8
  • 100 July/Sept KC wheat spreads traded in the pit at 7 ½ -8

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 3K
  • Corn sold 3K
  • Beans bought 2K
  • Meal bought 1K
  • Bean oil sold 1K

 

Open outcry option players

Corn:

Tenco bot 5800 Q 430 puts at 6 5/8 – 7

New Edge sold 1000 U 420 puts at 7/sold 200 CU 464 ½

Macquarie sold 1000 U 600 calls 2 3/8 /bot 91 CU 465

Macquarie bot 500 Z 450 puts/sold 1000 Z 400 puts at 9 7/8

ICAP bot 700 Z 450 puts at 25 /bot 294 CZ 465

JP Morgan bought 2000 N 480 puts at 17

FI bought 800 Sept short dated 500/550 call spreads at 7 5/8 – 7 ¾

ABN bought 500 U 470 calls sold 1000 U 550 calls at 12

 

Beans:

JP Morgan Sold 900 Jul 1460 Puts/ Sold 900 Jul 1600 Calls 15 credit

ADM Bot 500 Jul 1520/1560 Call spds 9.875-10.25 db

JP Morgan Sold 600 Jul 1140 Puts/ Sold 600 Jul 1560 Calls 14.125-14.25 credit

Obrien Bot 1000 Jul 1530 calls 15.75-17

ADM Sold 500 Aug 1380 Puts 24

JP Morgan Sold 400 Jul 1460/1420 Put spds 7 credit

ADM Sold 200 SDFN 1240 Puts/ Sold 200 SDFN 1250 Calls 39 credit

FI Bot 200 Jul 1400 Puts 2

ICAP Bot 200 SDFN 1250 Calls 19

ICAP Bot 200 SDFN 1250 Calls/ Sold 200 Jul 1500 Calls 7 credit

Morgan Stanley Sold 200 SDFU 1250 Calls 48

 

Wheat:

Tenco sold 1500 N 640 puts at 16 ½ -18

ICAP sold 500 N 590 puts 1 7/8

ICAP bought 500 N 590 puts at 2 3/8

New Edge bot 300 U 770 calls at 4 ¼

Tenco bot 500 Q 595 puts at 8-8 ¼

 

KC Wheat

Tenco sold 500 N 710 puts

 

Meal:

ICAP sold 1000 N ‘15 410 C 24.00 vs 400.50

ICAP bot 1000 N 485 P 8.50/8.75 vs 498.50

UBS sold 100 Z 500 C / bought 100 N 530 C +25/50

Rosenthal sold 100 Z 430 C bought 100 Z 350 P -10.15 vs 405.30

Oil:

RJO bought 1000 N 3850 straddles at 135

Mizuho bought 550 Z 40 C 168-170 (my broker believes they have more to buy)

Bunge sold 100 N 38 C 155

New Edge bought 300 U 45 C 17

New Edge bought 200 U 4550 C 15

New Edge bought 300 U 46 C 12

Jefferies sold 400 N 41 C 18

Jefferies sold 100 N 3650 P 4

 

Crush

Bunge sold 8 Q 70 calls at 4

EDF Mann bought 20 Q 70 calls at 4

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

N vol 20 470 str 19-20

Q vol 28 ¼ 470 str 41 ½-42 ½

U vol 28 ¼ 470 str 50 ½-51 ½

Z vol 25 ¾ 470 str 66 ¼ -67 ¼

H vol 24 480 str 77 ½-79

Z15 vol 20 470 str 89-91

 

Beans

N vol 17 ½ 1500 str 52-53 ½

Q vol 21 1430 str 93-96

U vol 21 ¾ 1300 str 107-110

X vol 21 ¼ 1240 str 133-135

F vol 19 ¾ 1240 str 147-151

 

Wheat

N vol 23 ¼ 630 str 28-31

Q vol 25 ¾ 640 str 52-54

U vol 25 ¾ 640 str 62-65

Z vol 24 ½ 660 str 88-91

H vol 23 ½ 680 str 105-109

 

KC wheat

N vol 23 730 str 33-35

Q vol 24 ½ 740 str 56-58

U vol 24 ½ 740 str 68-71

Z vol 23 750 str 93-97

H vol 21 ¾ 750 str 109-114

 

Minneapolis wheat

N vol 21 710 str 28-31

U vol 23 720 str 60-66

Z vol 22 ½ 730 str 85-91

 

Meal

N vol 29 500 str 29-31

Q vol 26.5 470 str 41-43

U vol 26 430 str 45-46.5

V vol 25 410 str 47.5-49

Z vol 24 400 str 53.5-55.5

 

Bean oil

N vol 17.75 39.5 str 130-140

Q vol 17.75 39.5 str 210-230

U vol 17.75 39.5 str 260-285

V vol 17.75 39.5 str 305-330

Z vol 17.75 39.5 str 370-390

 

Crush quotes

 

Open                     Close

 

JLY          34-35                     32-32.5

AUG       44-46                    41-43

SEP         97-1.00                 98-99

OCT        86.5-87                 87.5-88.5

DEC         81.5-82                82.5-82.75

JAN         74-74.5                74.5-75.0

MCH       72.5-73                72.75-73.0

MAY       71-72                    71-71.5

JLY5         69.5-71                69.5-70.0

AUG5     69-76.75              69-76.75

 

Crush and oil share players

  • RJO sold 20 NUU crush @ 104.50 (bought 20 SN, sold 22 SMU, sold 18 BOU)
  • No oil share players in pit today

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE