From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 05/08/2014

News

 

Ciara – CEC Export Chamber Argentine export estimates

  • 2014 soybean exports estimated at 11.0 MMT up 57% from 2013
  • 2014 bean oil exports estimated at 5.9 MMT up 31% from 2013
  • 2014 soymeal exports estimated at 27.5 MMT up 15% from 2013

 

Argentina Ag Ministry Argentine crop estimates

  • As of April 30th Argentina farmers have sold 35.85% of their corn crop vs. 57.50% a year ago
  • As of April 30th Argentine farmers have sold 25.3% of their bean crop vs. 32.3% a year ago
  • As of April 30th Argentina farmers have sold 49.50% of their wheat crop vs. 85.6% a year ago
  • Estimated ‘13/14 corn crop at 23.5 MMT vs. 27.0 MMT a year ago
  • Estimated ‘13/14 bean crop at 54.5 MMT vs. 48.5 MMT a year ago
  • Estimated ‘13/14 wheat crop at 9.5 MMT vs. 8.2 MMT a year ago

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange weekly Argentine crop report

  • Estimated ‘13/14 Argentine bean crop at 55.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 54.5 MMT
  • Argentine bean harvest is 63.9% complete vs. 56.7% a week ago and vs. 79.3% a year ago
  • Better than expected bean yields being reported
  • Estimated ‘13/14 Argentine corn crop at 24.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Argentine corn harvest is 28.3% complete vs. 25% a week ago and vs. 40.3% a year ago

 

FAO ‘14/15 crop estimates

  • Global wheat crop estimated at 701.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 704.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 715.1 MMT
  • EU28 wheat crop estimated at 143.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 145.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 143.2 MMT
  • China wheat crop estimated at 122.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 122.8 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 122.2 MMT
  • India wheat crop estimated at 96.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 95.6 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 93.5 MMT
  • US wheat crop estimated at 57.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 60.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 58.0 MMT
  • Russia wheat crop estimated at 51.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 50.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 52.1 MMT
  • Canada wheat crop estimated at 29.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 29.7 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 wheat crop of 37.5 MMT
  • Australia wheat crop estimated at 24.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 25.5 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 wheat crop of 27.0  MMT

 

CONAB came out this morning with their Brazilian crop estimate updates.

  • ‘13/14 bean crop estimated at 86.57 MMT vs. previous estimate of 86.08 MMT
  • ‘13/14 bean exports estimated at 45.3 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  •  ‘13/14 total corn crop estimated at 75.19 MMT vs. previous estimate of 75.46 MMT
  • 2014 wheat crop estimated at 6.88 MMT vs. previous estimate of  6.7 MMT

 

Pakistan bought 55,000 tons of Black Sea origin rapeseed for Aug/Sept shipment

 

UN bought 24,500 tons of Ukraine wheat for donation to Djibouti and North Korea for May/June shipment

 

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for August/Sept shipment

 

Argentina government estimated ‘13/14 bean crop at 55.0 MMT

 

Rosario Grains Exchange estimated ‘13/14 Argentine bean crop at 54.9 MMT

 

Argentine government estimated ‘13/14 corn crop at 29.8 MMT

 

Rosario Grains Exchange estimated ‘13/14 Argentine corn crop at 23.0 MMT

 

Saskatchewan (Canada) has started grain planting despite cool wet weather.

 

Oil World estimated ‘13/14 global palm – kernel imports at a record 6.81 MMT vs. ‘12/13 imports of 6.5 MMT

 

Oil World estimated 2014 Colombia palm oil exports at a six year high of 240,000 tons vs. 185,000 tons in 2013.

 

July bean oil closed above the 100 day moving average of 4087. July bean oil settled at 4112.

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Monday with their April palm oil data report. Based on a Bloomberg survey- Estimates for the report

  • Palm oil stocks average estimate 1.74 MMT vs. March stocks of 1.69 MMT and vs. 1.91 MMT in April 2013
  • Palm oil output average estimate 1.55 MMT vs. March output of 1.50 MMT and vs. 1.37 MMT in April 2013.
  • Palm oil exports average estimate 1.29 MMT vs. March exports of 1.24 MMT and vs. 1.46 MMT in April 2013.

 

Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST

 

USDA comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST.

 

Estimates for tomorrow’s USDA report – Attached is the recap table for tomorrow’s report

 

US 2014 wheat production estimates

  • All winter wheat (19 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.468 BB , range of estimates are 1.312-1.591 BB.  Final USDA 2013 all winter wheat production was 1.534 BB
  • Hard red winter wheat (19 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .782 BB, range of estimates are .610-.870 BB. Final USDA 2013 HRW wheat production was .744 BB.
  • Soft red winter wheat (19 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .467 BB, range of estimates are .409-.569 BB. Final USDA 2013 SRW wheat production was .565 BB
  • White winter wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .219 BB , range of estimates are .188-.268 BB. Final USDA 2013 WW wheat production was .225 BB
  • All wheat (18 analysts surveyed)  – average estimate 2.046 BB, range of 1.891- 2.182 BB. Final USDA 2013 all wheat production was 2.130 BB

 

‘13/14 US grain ending stock estimates

  • Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .588 BB, range of estimates are .570-.633 BB. USDA April estimate was .583 BB
  • Corn (23 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.314 BB, range of estimates are 1.231 – 1.435 BB. USDA April estimate was 1.331 BB
  • Beans (23 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .134 BB, range of estimates are .125-.174 BB. USDA April estimate was .135 BB

 

‘14/15 US grain ending stock estimates

  • Wheat (20 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .553 BB, range of estimates are .425 – .747 BB
  • Corn (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.672 BB, range of estimates are 1.295-2.354 BB
  • Beans (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .307 BB, range of estimates are .200 – .464 BB

 

‘13/14 World ending stock estimates

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 185.95 MMT, range of estimates are 181.91 – 189.00 MMT. USDA April estimate was 186.68 MMT
  • Corn (14 analysts surveyed)  – average estimate 157.31 MMT , range of estimates are 149.45 – 161.20 MMT. USDA April estimate was 158.00 MMT
  • Beans (15 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 69.77 MMT, range of estimates are 67.30-73.0 MMT. USDA April estimate was 69.42 MMT

 

‘14/15 World ending stock estimates

  • Wheat (11 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 184.53 MMT, range of estimates are 178.00-200.00 MMT
  • Corn (11 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 159.41 MMT , range of estimates are 149.90-175.00 MMT
  • Beans (11 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 80.34 MMT, range of estimates are 67.0-95.0 MMT

 

‘13/14 Argentina and Brazilian crop estimates

  • Argentina corn (15 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 23.86 MMT, range of estimates are 22.30-25.0 MMT. USDA April estimate was 24.0 MMT
  • Argentina beans (15 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 54.40 MMT, range of estimates are 53.50-57.0 MMT. USDA April estimate was 54.00
  • Brazil corn (15 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 72.10 MMT, range of estimates are 70.50-74.0 MMT. USDA April estimate was 72.0 MMT
  • Brazil beans (15 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 87.23 MMT, range of estimates are 86.5-87.5 MMT. USDA April estimate was 87.50 MMT

 

’14/15 World and US Cotton estimates

  • Cotton world production (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 115.50 million bales , range of estimates are 114.0-118.0 MB . USDA ‘13/14 world production estimate is 116.62 MB
  • Cotton world demand (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 112.75 million bales, range of estimates are 109.5 – 119.2 MB . USDA ‘13/14 world demand estimated at 109.25 MB
  • China cotton imports (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 8.0 million bales, range of estimates are 6.0 -11.25 MMT . USDA ‘13/14 China cotton imports estimated at 12.0 MB
  • Cotton world ending stocks (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 99.90 million bales, range of estimates are 94.2 -105.0 MB. USDA ‘13/14 world ending stock estimate was 96.92 MB
  • Cotton US production (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 15.10 million bales, range of estimates are 14.6- 16.5 MB . USDA ‘13/14 estimate was 12.87 MB
  • Cotton US demand (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 3.70 million bales, range of estimates are 3.10 -3.85 MB. USDA ‘13/14 estimate was 3.65 MB
  • Cotton US exports (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 10.25 million bales, range of estimates are 9.35-14.0 MB. USDA ‘13/14 estimate was 10.70 MB
  • Cotton US ending stocks (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.87 million bales, range of estimates are 2.30-4.80 MB. USDA ‘13/14 estimate was 2.5 MB

 

Estimated Fund Activity

  • Wheat sold 1K
  • Corn bought 3K
  • Beans bought 6K
  • Meal bought 2K
  • Bean oil bought 2K

 

Open outcry option players

Corn:

JPM sold 2000 N 530 calls/490 put strangles

JPM bot 1000 N 520-560 call spreads/sold 280 CN

Advantage bought 700 N 490 puts sold 1,400 N 450 puts and bought 120 CN 515

Bache bot 500 short dated U 525 calls/sold 500 Z 600 calls

ABN bot 500 N 540 calls/sold 500 Z 580 calls

ICAP bot 500 M 515 calls

ICAP bot 500 M 520 calls

 

Beans:

FI Bot 800 SDFN 1200 Puts/ Sold 800 Nov 1100 Puts 5 credit

EDF Sold 700 Nov 1100 Puts 21.75/ Sold 145 Nov futures 1221

EDF Sold 600 July 1550 Calls 10.5

EDF Bot 600 SDFN 1200 Puts 16

GFI Bot 4000 Nov 1160 Puts 38.5-41.25

ABN Sold 2000 Jul 1480 Calls 26.5/ Bot 800 Jul futures 1454

Marex Sold 300 Nov 1220 Straddles 133.75/ Bot 18 Nov futures 1223

EDF Bot 200 Jul 1240 Puts .875

ABN Bot 700 Nov 1140/1040 Put spds 21.25 db/ Bot 112 Nov futures 1225

JP Morgan Bot 250 Jul 1370 Puts 7.75

JP Morgan Bot 300 Jul 1400 Puts 13.75

Rosenthal Bot 300 Aug 1550 Calls 12.25

Rosenthal Sold 250 Nov 1220 Calls 70

ADM Sold 200 Jul 1480 Puts 43.5-45

Bache Bot 200 Jul 1490 Calls 29

Obrien Sold 400 Jul 1400 Puts 12.25-12.5

New Edge Bot 300 Jul 1550 Calls 11.5

Rosenthal Sold 500 Nov 1160 Puts 41

ADM Sold 200 Jul 1500 Puts/ Bot 600 June 1450 Puts 11 credit

ABN Sold 1500 Jul 1450 Puts 31/ Sold 630 Jul futures 1464

EDF Bot 300 June 1420 Puts 6.25-6.75

 

Wheat:

JPM sold 500 N 680 puts

JPM sold 500 U 570 puts

ADM bot 500 U 600 puts

ADM bot 600 Q 735 puts/sold 600 U 690 puts

 

Meal:

Rand bot 2300 H 320 puts

Rand bot 1000 Z 370 puts

FCS sold 800 Z 370 puts

FI sold 300 Z 370 puts

 

Oil:

JPM sold 500 N 40 puts

Macquarie bot 500 Z 42-46 call spreads/sold 500 Z 39 puts

Newedge bot 370 H 46 calls

 

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

M vol 24 515 str 20-21

N vol 24 ¾ 515 str 35-35 ½

Q vol 29 ½ 510 str 55 ¼ -56 ¼

U vol 29 ½ 510 str 64 ¼ -65 ¼

Z vol 26 ½ 510 str 79-80

H vol 24 ¾ 520 str 90-91

Z15 vol 19 ½ 500 str 95-97

 

Beans

M vol 19 1460 str 45 ½ -47 ½

N vol 18 ¾ 1460 str 75-77

Q vol 20 ½ 14000 str 105-108

U vol 21 1280 str 114-117

X vol 21 1220 str 137-140

 

Wheat

M vol 27 730 str 32-35

N vol 28 ½ 730 str 56-58

U vol 28 ½ 740 str 91-93

Z vol 26 ½ 760 str 115-119

H vol 25 770 str 133-139

 

KC wheat

M vol 27 ¾ 840 str 38-40

N vol 28 ¼ 840 str 64-68

U vol 27 ¾ 850 str 98-103

Z vol 25 ½ 850 str 125-130

H vol 24 ¼ 850 str 141-146

 

Minneapolis wheat

M vol 26 800 str 33-39

N vol 26 ½ 800 str 55-61

U vol 27 810 str 88-94

Z vol 26 ¼ 820 str 116-122

H vol 24 830 str 133-140

 

Meal

M vol 22.5 480 str 17.5-19

N vol 22.5 480 str 31-32

Q vol 23 450 str 40-42

U vol 23 420 str 41.5-43.5

V vol 22 390 str 43.5-45.5

Z vol 22.5 390 str 49-51.5

 

Bean oil

M vol 18.75 41 str 110-135

N vol 19.25 41 str 205-220

Q vol 19.75 41 str 280-300

U vol 19.75 41 str 330-360

V vol 19.75 40.5 str 380-405

Z vol 19.75 41 str 440-460

N 15 vol 18.5 41 str 575-650

 

Crush quotes

 

Open              Close

May            51.5-56          53.5-56.5

July             46.5-47          39-40

Aug            46.5-47.5       43.5-46

Sept           96.5-99           95-98

Oct             84-85.5           84-85

Dec            78.5-79           78-78.25

Jan             72.5-73           72-72.5

March       72.5-73           71.5-72.5

May15     71-72               71-72

July15       70.5-71           70.5-1

 

Crush player

  • ADM sold 40 Aug at 47

 

Oil Share player

  • Rosenthal bot 100 July oil/ 80 July meal at 29.35%

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE