Bean Option Recap From Jon Karmin

Beans drifted lower after refuting yesterday’s short covering rally.  Fundamentally there is a case for the bears but we do not get another good report until January so many of the shorts in options have pushed their maturity out after the first of the year or gotten out altogether.  With 6 weeks left in the year I still maintain the downside should not be ignored for the near future.  As we turn to December and there are no weather problems in South America it is still possible to wash this market out.  It will probably happen when no one expects it as is often the case in markets.  I think it will be difficult to test the recent highs without a story and I don’t know what else they could throw at this market to move back up to those levels.  I am looking to the March option contract to fully capture the South American input into price.  SH options will eventually reflect our 450M carry out and whatever the southern hemisphere adds to world excess supply.  However SH options will incur time decay as we approach year end so that risk need to be spread off.  SZ vol  28 unch, SF vol  22.25 down .5, SH vol 22 unch, SX15 vol 19.5 unch.

 

Straddles

SZ 1020 23.5-24.5

SF 1020 59-60

SH 1040 91.5-92.5

SX15 1020 148-151

 

Players

ADM Bot 700 May 1000/900 Put spds 25-25.5 db

EDF Bot 200 May 980/880 Put spds 21.75 db

JP Morgan Bot 200 May 1200 Calls 12

Obrien Bot 250 Jan 980/940 Puts spds 7.5 db

JP Morgan Bot 200 March 1200 Calls 6

ICAP Sold 300 March 1000 Puts 29.25/ Sold 96 March futures 1040

ICAP Bot 500 Jul 900 Puts 17-17.25

Rosenthal Sold 400 Jan 930 Puts 4.125-4.25

DRAX Bot 1000 Dec 980 Puts 1.25

JP Morgan Sold 500 March 960 Puts 17.75/ Sold 120 March futures 1036

ICAP Sold 350 March 1000 Puts 31.75/ Sold 135 March futures 1031

Rand Bot 500 March 1000/900 Put spds 24-24.25 db

Rosenthal Bot 200 Dec 1000/980 Put spds 2.5 db

Rosenthal Bot 275 Dec 1000 Puts 4.375

Jefferies Sold 500 Jan 940 Puts/ Sold 500 Jan 1060 Calls 20.25 credit/ Bot 120 Jan futures 1024

 

Jon Karmin (JSK)/Jeff Pogonitz (POG) Brokerage

 

Data source: Jon Karmin and Jeff Pogonitz bean option brokers