Additional News From The Floor 11/10/14

Just a reminder – USDA report at 11 am CST today, see attachment from recap table

 

Reminder of new daily price limits that started on November 2nd  

  • Corn limit is now .25 cents vs. old limit of .35 cents
  • Bean limit is now .70 cents vs. old limit of $1
  • Wheat limit is now .35 cents vs. old limit of .45 cents
  • KC wheat limit is now .40 cents vs. old limit of .50 cents
  • Bean oil limit is now 250 tics vs. old limit of 300 tics
  • Meal limits now $25 vs. old limit of $30
  • Oat limits unchanged at .25 cents
  • Rice limit is now .90 cents vs. old limit of $1.10

 

Japan seeks 127,355 tons of food wheat for Dec-Jan shipment. Breakdown

  • 15,590 tons of US western white wheat
  • 39,910 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 36,095 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 35,760 tons of Australia white wheat

 

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of optional origin hard milling wheat for April –May shipment

 

Iraq seeks 30,000 tons of US , Uruguay , Argentina, Brazil, Vietnam , and Thailand rice

 

Mississippi river near Memphis closed to daylight traffic for up to 14 days for levee repair

 

India’s Nov 1st milled rice stocks at 13.7 MMT vs. target of 7.2 MMT

 

India’s Nov 1st wheat stocks at 30.1 MMT vs. target of 14.0 MMT

 

France Farm Ministry estimated France’s 2014 corn crop at 16.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 16.3 MMT and up 13% from the five year average

 

Today is the last day of the Deutsche Back roll. They have been rolling long Dec 2014 corn positions into Dec 2015.

 

Today is the second day of the Goldman Sachs roll. The roll ends Thursday. They have been rolling long Dec corn, wheat, and KC wheat positions into March and rolling long Dec meal and bean oil positions into Jan.

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST. Expecting
    • Bean harvesting expecting 89-92% complete
    • Corn harvesting 81-85% complete
    • Winter wheat conditions steady
  • CONAB comes out tomorrow  with their ‘14/15 Brazilian crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
    • Corn crop estimated at 76.6-78.9 MMT
    • Bean crop estimated at 88.83- 92.41 MMT
    • Bean exports estimated at 48.5 MMT
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Last trading day for November futures is Friday. Futures expire at noon CST
  • NOPA October crush report comes out Monday Nov 17th at 11 am CST
  • Tuesday Nov 18th March KC wheat, Chicago wheat, corn, and oats go top step (spot month)
  • Tuesday Nov 18th Jan meal and bean oil go top step (spot month)
  • Last trading day for December options is Friday 11/21/14 . Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

USDA November crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Monday November 10th at 11 am CST.

 

Estimates for USDA report.

 

Estimates for US 2014 corn and bean production

  • Corn production (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 14.551 BB , range of estimates are 14.242- 14.842 BB. USDA October estimate was 14.475 BB and final 2013 corn production was 13.925 BB
  • Corn yield (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 175.233 BPA, range of estimates are 171.4 – 178.6 BPA. USDA October estimate was 174.2 BPA and final 2013 corn yield was 158.8 BPA
  • Bean production (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.967 BB, range of estimates are 3.903- 4.064 BB. USDA October estimate was 3.927 BB and final 2013 bean production was 3.358 BB.
  • Bean yield (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 47.608 BB, range of estimates are 46.8- 48.7 BPA. USDA October estimate was 47.1 BPA and final 2013 bean yield was 44.0 BPA.

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate .660 BB, range of estimates are .634- .682 BB. USDA October estimate was .654 BB.
  • Corn (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.135 BB, range of estimates are 1.850- 2.282 BB. USDA October  estimate was 2.081 BB
  • Beans (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate .442 BB, range of estimates are .403- .513 BB. USDA October estimate was .450 BB

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (7 analysts surveyed) average estimate 185.53 MMT , range of estimates are 185.00- 186.13 MMT. USDA October estimate was 185.58 MMT
  • Corn (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 173.02 MMT, range of estimates are 172.00- 173.78 MMT . USDA October estimate was 173.00 MMT
  • Beans (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 66.33 MMT, range of estimates are 65.0 – 66.53 MMT. USDA October estimate was 66.49 MMT

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 192.15 MMT, range of estimates are 189.79- 196.40 MMT. USDA October estimate was 192.59 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 190.77 MMT, range of estimates are 185.60- 194.18 MMT. USDA October estimate was 190.58 MMT
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 90.37 MMT, range of estimates are 89.50- 92.55 MMT. USDA October estimate was 90.67 MMT

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE