Additional Afternoon Recap

 

Wheat was the star performer today gaining 2.7% after the weekly crop condition reports from TX, OK and KS showed a sharp increase in the very poor and poor conditions.

Top soil moisture continued to decline in these states placing large areas in extreme or severe drought.

KWN posted a new high for this move rivaling prices not seen since June 2013, right after the market left a downside gap.

In a bit of a surprise, Egypt bought 55,000 tonnes of US SRW wheat overnight.

WN posted a new high close to re-challenge the $7 mark.

Beans and meal were also quite strong as the market has re-focused on the unsustainable export and crush pace.

SMK closed within $2 of its highest close this year.

Here are today’s net price changes:

SK           +26 ½ cents

SX           +8 ¾ cents

CK           +7 ¼ cents

CZ           +5 ¾ cents

WK         +18 cents

WN        +17 ¼ cents

KWK      +19 ¾ cents

KWN      +21 cents

MWK     +17 ¼ cents

MWU    +16 ¾ cents

SMK       +$9.20

BOK       +38 pts

 

 

 

 

 

The SN-SX inverse gained 12 ½ cents and appears poised to challenge the 216 ½-217 gap area left on March 11.

The unsustainable bean usage pace would argue for new highs in the SN-SX inverse.

 

 

 

 

 

 

KWN is closing in on a price area that failed in June 2013 and subsequently led to $1.80 break:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ethanol futures were red hot gaining over 12 cents in April and over 10 cents in May. This continued to push ethanol margins higher.

Ethanol/corn:

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Egyptians bought 175,000 tonnes of wheat overnight  with 60,000 tonnes coming from Russia, 60,000 tonnes coming from Romania and 55,000 tonnes coming from the US.

Since the last Egyptian tender, wheat futures rose by 70-85 cents.

However the US SRW offer only rose by 12 cents indicating the US basis has weakened substantially.

The FOB offers from Russia were up nearly $24 per tonne (65 cents per bu) from the previous tender while Romania prices were up nearly $18 per tonne (49 cents per bu).

So it looks like Black Sea exportable wheat supplies are getting well committed.

However, this may the last Egyptian wheat tender we see in quite a while as they await their domestic harvest.

 

 

 

The weekly CBOT deliverable stocks report for w/e March 14, 2014 showed a significant drop in deliverable wheat stocks:

Wheat                  -1.719 million bu

Corn                      -46,000 bu

Beans                    -6000 bu

 

 

 

One item we overlooked in Monday’s weekly export inspections was the large scale exports of sorghum to China.

For week ending March 13, 2014 there were 193,239 tonnes of sorghum shipped to China.

Given that China reportedly has ample domestic corn stocks and has been rejecting corn cargoes with the MIR 162 GMO trait, we are surprised at these sorghum imports.

 

 

 

Ukraine spring grain plantings have sped up to 814,000 HA versus 647,000 HA last year.

Much has been written about the turmoil and weak currency in Ukraine reducing grain planted area this year.

But this data does not reflect that concern.

Putin approved a treaty to annex Crimea but said Russia did not seek a partition of the Ukraine.

The market’s worst fear is that Putin directs agents in other areas of Russia to proclaim they are being harassed or discriminated against by pro-Ukrainians as a pretext for further military intervention in Ukraine.

 

 

 

There were reports of another 6 Brazil bean cargoes being washed out or delayed by China.

 

 

 

 

CIF corn premiums:

Mar                        +78K bid               +81K offer

Apr 1-5                 +75K bid

Apr                         +69K bid               +71K offer

May                       +68K bid

Jun                         +63N bid

Jun/Jul                  +62N bid

 

CIF bean premiums:

F/H Mar               +85K bid

Mar                        +85K bid               +90K offer

Jun                         +80N bid

F/H Jul                  +80N bid

Jul                                                           +80N offer

Sep 1-25               +105X bid            +115X offer

 

CIF wheat premiums:

Apr/May              +75K bid

F/H May               +75K bid

L/H May               +70K bid

Jun/Jul                  +45N bid              +50N offer

Aug/Sep              +45U bid              +50U offer