opening calls

Beans and corn weaker overnite for reasons not entirely clear to us.

There is some risk for precip in the Midwest in the next 4-5 days along with cooler temps but the rain amounts we see forecast are insignificant.

We suspect nervous longs are bailing in front of pivotal weekend.

Chinese soybean and meal futures were quite weak overnite and that may have played a critical role.

 

Overnight deliveries against U were lighter than expected:

Soy oil                   651 lots versus 1000-3000 expected

KC wheat             19 versus 500-800 expected

Chgo wheat        zero versus 500-1000 expected

Mnpls wheat     106 versus 0-250 expected

 

USDA reported 110,000 tonnes beans sold to China for 2013-14

 

Macquarie estimated US bean yield at 41.4 bu and corn at 155.5 bu

Morgan Stanley estimated US bean yield at 42.1 bu and corn at 155.5 bu

 

Russian grain harvest to Aug 29 was 59.9 million tonnes, 53.5% complete, yields up 26.6% LY

Ukraine grain harvest to Aug 30 was 32.751 million tonnes, 96% complete, yields up 19.8% LY

Kazakhstan grain harvest to Aug 29 was 2.076 million tonnes, 10.1% complete, yields up 80% LY

 

Jordan tenders for 100,000 tonnes barley.

Japan bot 43,582 tonnes wheat SBS.

Pakistan imported 92,108 tonnes Russian wheat, first in 3 years.

 

German Ag Ministry crop estimates for 2013:

Total grain           47.1 million tonnes, up 3.6% LY

Wheat                  24.9 million tonnes, up 11% LY

Barley                   8.4 million tonnes

Rapeseed            5.78 million tonnes, up 20.4% LY

 

Indian Ag Minister says Indian soybean area 12.2 million HA versus 10.7 million HA LY.

 

Eddyville, IA corn bid -40 cents to +120Z

Central IL corn bid -10 cents to +110U

Blair, NE corn bid -10 cents to +145U

Central IL bean bid steady at +160X

 

100 soy oil receipts cancelled Thu afternoon

Biodiesel RINs closed Thu at 76-80 cents for 2013 and 81-85 cents for 2014

Ethanol RINS closed Thu at 68-69 cents for 2013 and 2014.

 

Argentine soy oil traded for Oct/Dec at -290 FOB.

Argentine hi pro traded for Oct at +43V FOB, basis $4 firmer

Argentine/Uruguayan beans trade for Sep at +100X FOB.

Brazil beans traded for Mar at -5H FOB and for Apr/May at -7K FOB, basis about 5 cents weaker.

Brazil pellets traded for Oct at +42V FOB, basis about $5 firmer.

 

Crude oil lower after UK nixed military action in Syria.

Gold is down $18

$ is firmer.

 

Prelim open interest changes from Thu:

Corn      -6974

Beans    -1861

Meal      -2331

Oil           -6683

Wheat  -4285

 

Tom