News From The Grain Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • Lanworth estimates
    • ‘13/14 global corn crop estimated at 963.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 958.0 MMT
    • ‘13/14 global bean crop estimated at 289.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 290.0 MMT
    • ‘13/14 global wheat crop estimated at 707.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
    • ‘13/14 US corn crop estimated at 13.911 BB vs. previous estimate of 13.944 BB
    • ‘13/14 US bean crop estimated at 3.264 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.287 BB
    • ‘14/15 Chinese corn crop estimated at 220 MMT
  • Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 wheat crop at 9.1 MMT vs. ‘12/13 crop of 8.7 MMT
  • Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 corn area at 3.87 MH vs. 4.4 MH in ‘12/13
  • UkrAgroConsult ‘13/14 Russian estimates
    • Corn crop estimated at 11.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 10.2 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 8.2 MMT
    • Domestic use for corn estimated at 6.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.7 MMT and vs. 6.3 MMT in ‘12/13
    • Corn exports estimated at 3.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 3.2 MMT and vs. 1.9 MMT in ‘12/13
    • Corn ending stocks estimated at 971,000 tons vs. previous estimate of 521,000 tons and vs. 231,000 tons in ‘12/13
  • Japan customs data
    • Corn use for animal feed at 41.8% in September vs. 42.5% in August
    • September corn imports at 1.185 MMT up 5.2% from a year ago
      • 54.6% of Sept corn imports came from the US vs. 73.3% a year ago
  • Japan seeks 26,370 tons of feed wheat and 69,870 tons of feed barley via SBS tender for Jan-Feb shipment
  • India’s PEC tenders to sell 155,000 tons of wheat for Jan shipment
  • Analysts estimated Vietnam’s 2013 soymeal imports at 2.6 MMT up 6% from a year ago
  • Russia bought 38,745 tons of intervention grain , making the total since Oct 15th 341,550 tons of intervention grain bought.
  • Jan beans closed below the 200 day moving average of 1274 ¼. Jan beans settled at
  • Fed released minutes from October’s FOMC 2 day policy meeting today at 1 pm CST
  • Brazil markets were closed today for holiday. Trading will resume tomorrow.
  • China’s HSBC flash Nov PMI will come out tonight/tomorrow
  • Flash Nov PMIs for Germany, France, and Eurozone come out tomorrow morning.
  • Argentina’s government to estimate ‘13/14 crops tomorrow
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST expecting
    • Wheat 375-475,000
    • Corn 750-950,000
    • Beans 650-850,000
    • Meal 200-350,000
    • Bean oil 30-80,000
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Open outcry option players
    • Tenco bought 700 Jan bean 1320 calls at 10 ¼ -10 ½
    • RJO bought 4,000 Jan corn 415/395 put spreads at 4 1/8 – 4 ¼ and bought 851 March corn at 424 ¾
    • Rand bought 2,000 Jan corn 410 puts at 4 ¼-4 ½
    • FI bought 2,400 Jan corn 410 puts sold 1,200 Jan corn 420 puts at 1 1/8 -1 ¼ debit
    • ADM bought 1,000 Jan corn 450 calls and sold 1,000 March corn 440 calls at 9 ½ credit
    • Jefferies bought 2,000 Dec corn 420 puts and sold 2,000 Jan corn 430 puts at 6 ¾ credit
    • JP Morgan bought 1,500 Dec corn 430 calls at 7/8 -1
    • ABN sold 1,800 Dec wheat 680 calls at a 1/8 – ¼
    • ADM bought 700 March wheat 660 calls at 25 ¾ -26 ¼
    • Mizuho sold 1,000 Jan wheat 640 puts at 6 ½
    • JP Morgan bought 1,000 March meal 410 calls (tied to 397.00) and sold 1,000 Aug meal 410 calls (tied to 379.50) at a .25 credit
    • New Edge bought 125 Jan bean oil 38 puts at 15

 

Estimated Fund Activity

  • Wheat sold 2K
  • Corn sold 3K
  • Beans sold 2K
  • Meal sold 1K
  • Bean oil bought 2K

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

Z vol 25 420 str 7-8 ½

F vol 18 ½ 430 str 19 ½-21

H vol 20 ¾ 430 str 35 ¾-36 ¾

K vol 20 ¾ 430 str 46-47 ½

N vol 21 ¾ 440 str 57 ½-58

U vol 23 450 str 70 ½-72

Z14 vol 21 ¾ 450 str 77-78 ½

 

Beans

Z vol 17 1270 str 15-16 ½

F vol 15 ¼ 1270 str 49-50

H vol 17 1260 str 85 ½ -87

K vol 16 ¾ 1260 str 106 ½-108 ½

N vol 16 ½ 1240 str 124-127

X vol 16 ½ 1160 str 144-146

 

Wheat

Z vol 20 650 str 7 ½-9 ½

F vol 17 ½ 650 str 28-30

H vol 19 650 str 48 ½-50

K vol 20 650 str 68-70

N vol 21 ¼ 650 str 83-85

 

KC Wheat

Z vol 15 700 str 7 ½-9 ½

H vol 16 ¼ 700 str 45-48

K vol 18 700 str 65-68

N vol 19 ½ 690 str 80-83

 

Minneapolis wheat

Z vol 13 ½ 700 str 7-11

H vol 15 710 str 40-46

K vol 16 ½ 710 str 60-65

N vol 18 720 str 72-81

U vol 18 720 str 82-93

Z14 vol 18 730 str 90-105

 

Meal

Z vol 28.5 410 str 6.5-8

F vol 20.75 400 str 21-23

H vol 20.5 400 str 32.5-34.5

K vol 19.25 390 str 38.5-40.5

N vol 18.5 380 str 43-45

 

Bean oil

Z vol 16 40 str 35-50

F vol 15.75 40.5 str 155-170

H vol 16 41 str 255-275

K vol 15.75 41.5 str 325-350

N vol 15.75 41.5 str 385-415

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN              CLOSE

FZZ            62-63.5            65-65.5

JAN           57-57.5            58.5-59

MCH         57.5-58.5        58-58.5

MAY         59-60               58-58.5

JLY            59-60                58-58.5

AUG        61-65                61.5-64

SEP          81-82                80-82

OCT         73.5-76            73.5-77

DEC         70.5-71.5         71-72

 

Crush players

 

FC Stone sold 70 May at 58

 

New Edge sold 80 May at 58

 

Oil Share player

 

Rosenthal sold 150 Jan bean oil/120 meal at 33.45%