News From The Grain Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • More numbers from Informa – US
    • 2013 US corn crop estimated at 14.010  BB vs. previous estimate of 13.889 BB vs. FC Stone estimate of 14.15 BB and vs. USDA Sept estimate of 13.843 BB
    • 2013 US corn yield estimated at 158.8  BPA vs. previous estimate of 157.6 BPA vs. FC Stone estimate of 158.7 BPA and vs. USDA Sept estimate of 155.3 BPA
    • 2013 US bean crop estimated at  3.176 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.224 BB vs. FC Stone estimate of 3.163 BB and vs. USDA Sept estimate of 3.149 BB
    • 2013 US bean yield estimated at  41.7 BPA vs. previous estimate of 42.4 BPA vs. FC Stone estimate of 41.4 BPA and vs. USDA Sept estimate of 41.2 BPA
    • Said they think USDA will lower 2013 corn planting area by 1.4 MA
    • Said they think USDA will lower 2013 US soybean planting area by 260,000 to 76.9 MA
    • Estimated US corn abandonment at 7.7 MA vs. USDA estimate of 8.2 MA
    • 2013 US all rice production estimated at 183.0 M cwt. vs. previous estimate of 185 and vs. 199.0 M a year ago
    • 2013 US sunflower crop estimated at 2.39 billion pounds down 400 million from a year ago
    • 2013 US all cotton production estimated at 13.7 million bales down 3.6 M from a year ago
  • More numbers from Informa – World
    • 2013 total Brazilian corn crop estimated at 71.1 MMT down 550K tons from previous estimate and down 10.2 MMT from a year ago
    • 2013 Canadian all wheat crop estimated at 33.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 32.787 MMT , including 24.0 MMT of spring wheat and vs. 5.6 MMT of durum wheat
    • 2013 Russian what crop estimated at 54.5 MMT up 1 M from previous estimate and up 16.8 M from a year ago
    • 2013 Kazakhstan wheat crop down 500,000 tons from their previous estimate
    • 2013 Argentine wheat crop estimated at 11.0 MMT down 2.7 MMT from their previous estimate and up 1.5 MMT from a year ago
    • 2013 Australian wheat crop estimated at 26.1 MMT down 300K tons from previous estimate and up 4.0 MMT from a year ago
    • 2013 Indian rice crop estimated at 110.3 MMT up 1.2 MMT from previous estimate
    • 2013 Argentine bean crop down 3.0 MMT from previous estimate
    • 2013 Ukraine  sunseed crop estimated at 11.0 MMT up 1 M from previous and up 2 M from a year ago
    • 2013 Russian sunseed crop estimate up 300,000 tons from previous and up 1.8 M from a year ago
    • 2013 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 86.4 MMT up 1.2 M from previous estimate
    • 2013 global cotton crop estimated at 118.0 MMT  up 1.8 MB from previous estimate and down 3.1 M from a year ago
    • 2013 Ukraine corn crop estimated at 27.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and up 6.6 MMT from a year ago
    • 2013 Russian corn crop estimated at 9.3 MMT down 400K from previous and up 1.1 MMT from a year ago
    • 2013 Indian bean crop estimated at 12.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 12.5 MMT and vs. 11.5 MMT a year ago
  • Buenos Aires Grains Exchange weekly Argentine crop progress report from yesterday afternoon
    • Estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 corn planted area at 3.46 MH vs. previous estimate of 3.56 MH and down 6% from ‘12/13 area
    • 8% of Argentina’s corn planting is complete vs. 4.6% a week ago and vs. 17% a year ago
    • Estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 sunflower planted area at 1.63 MH vs. previous estimate of 1.70 MH and down 9.4% from ‘12/13
    • 23.5% of Argentina’s ‘13/14 sunflower crop has been planted vs. 21.1% a week ago and vs. 28% a year ago
    • Said 26% of Argentina’s ‘13/14 wheat crop is in fair to poor condition up 2% from a week ago
  • FC Stone estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 87.9 MMT (record) vs. previous estimate of 87.47 MMT and vs. 81.5 MMT a year ago
  • FC Stone estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean exports at 43.3 MMT
  • Department of Rural Economy said Parana , Brazil entire soybean crop in good condition , estimated ‘13/14 bean crop at 22.7 MMT vs. 23.4 MMT a year ago . Estimated bean area at 5.8 MH unchanged from a year ago and said 10% of the bean crop has been planted vs. 2% a week ago
  • Ukraine Ag  Min said Ukraine exported 6.3 MMT of grain between July 1 – Oct 4th up 11.5% from a year ago including 3.9 MMT of wheat, 1.7 MMT of barley and 752K tons of corn
  • Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 358,106 tons of grain between Oct 1-4th
  • Ukraine Ag Min estimated Ukraine’s Oct grain exports at 2.2-2.3 MMT vs. 2.4 MMT in September
  • Ukraine Ag Min estimated Ukraine’s ‘13/14 grain exports at 26-30 MMT vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 23.0 MMT
  • Nov beans closed  above the 50 day moving average of 1293 ¾ . Nov beans settled at 1295
  • Nov beans closed above the 100 day moving average of 1283 ½. Nov beans settled at 1295
  • Today is the third day of the Deutsche Bank roll. The roll ends on Tuesday. They are rolling long Nov 2013 bean positions into Nov 2014. Activity
    • Pit – 100 spreads traded at 120-121
    • Electronic – 3,321 spreads traded at 119 ½-122 ½
  • There will be no option comments/recaps from the pit today.
  • Weekly COT report will be delayed, usually comes out every Friday at 230 pm CDT
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins on Monday and ends on Friday. GS will be rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan.
  • USDA weekly reports on Monday will probably be delayed including weekly US export inspections and weekly US crop progress  report .
  • Open outcry option players
    • ADM bought 1,000 Jan bean 1280/1360 call spreads and sold 1,000 Jan bean 1260 puts at 3 debit
    • ABN sold 1,100 Nov bean 1300 puts at 31 and sold 550 Nov futures at 1286
    • RJO sold 1,000 Dec corn 420 puts at 5 ½
    • ADM bought 1,000 Dec corn 430p and sold 1,000 Dec corn 460 calls at 2 debit
    • FI bought 1,000 July corn 450 straddles at 70 ½-71
    • JP Morgan bought 500 Nov wheat 720 calls at 5 ½ and sold 125 Dec futures at 688
    • New Edge bought 400 Nov wheat 670 puts at 7 ¾-8
    • Rosenthal bought 500 Dec meal 400 puts at 8.00
    • RJO bought 200 Dec bean oil 40 puts at 90

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 1K
  • Corn bought 3K
  • Beans bought 3K
  • Meal bought 1K
  • Bean oil  sold 1K

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

x vol 19 ¾ 440 str 16-17

z vol 20 ¾ 440 str 26 ¼ -27 ¼

H vol 21 450 str 46 ½-47 ½

K vol 21 ¾ 460 str 59-61

N vol 22 ½ 470 str 70-71 ½

U vol 24 ¼ 480 str 85 ½-87 ½

Z14 vol 22 ¾ 480 str 91 ½-93 ½

 

Beans

X vol 18 ½ 1300 str 46-49

Z vol 18 ¾ 1290 str 71-74

F vol 18 1290 str 88-92

H vol 18 ½ 1280 str 115-119

K vol 17 ¾ 1260 str 131-135

N vol 17 ½ 1260 str 146-151

 

Wheat

X vol 22 ¾ 690 str 28-31

Z vol 22 ¾ 690 str 44-46

F vol 22 ½ 700 str 60-62

H vol 22 ¼ 700 str 75-77

K vol 22 ¼ 700 str 90-93

N vol 22 ½ 690 str 100-104

 

KC wheat

X vol 22 ¼ 750 str 29-31

Z vol 21 ¼ 750 str 45-47

H vol 21 750 str 75-78

K vol 21 750 str 90-93

N vol 21 730 str 101-104

 

Minneapolis wheat

Z vol 18 ¾ 750 str 38-45

H vol 19 760 str 67-73

K vol 19 760 str 79-98

N vol 19 760 str 88-98

 

Meal

X vol 27 420 str 20-21.5

Z vol 26.5 420 str 30.5-31.5

F vol 23.5 410 str 35-37

H vol 22.5 400 str 42-44

K vol 20 390 str 47-49

N vol 20 390 str 50-54

 

Bean oil

X vol 18 40 str 125-145

Z vol 17.5 40 str 195-210

F vol 17 40.5 str 250-270

H vol 17 41 str 325-350

K vol 16.5 41 str 325-350

N vol 16.5 41.5 str 440-480

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN               CLOSE

OCT           90-93               91.5-93.5

DEC           68-68.5            67.5-68

JAN           58.5-59            60.5-61.5

MCH          61-62               62.5-63

MAY          61-62.5            62-63

JLY              62-63               63-64

AUG          63-66               65-66.5

DEC 14  67.5-70               69-70

 

Crush players

 

ABN sold 40 July at 63

 

New Edge sold 100 Dec at

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg