News From The Grain Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • September futures expired today at noon . Settlements are
    • SU at 1488 ¾ , up 46 ¾
    • CU at 450 , down 29
    • WU at 627 ¾, down 14
    • KC WU at 685, down 21 ¾
    • SMU at 496.20, up 15.30
    • BOU at 4222, down 47
  • Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine has exported 4.61 MMT of grain between July 1st – Sept 13th , including 2.26 MMT of wheat, 1.47 MMT of barley, and 600,000 tons of corn. Up 10.7% from a year ago
  • India’s Ag Ministry planting progress as of 9/13/13
    • Rice planting on 37.2 MH vs. 36.09 MH a year ago
    • Oilseed planting on 19.25 MH vs. 17.09 MH a year ago
    • Cotton planting on 11.35 MH vs. 11.44 MH a year ago
  • Wheat quality issues being seen in Russia and Kazakhstan said some analysts
  • Anacer said Italy imported 1.875 MMT of corn between Jan-June vs. 1.1 MMT a year ago
  • Anacer said Italy imported 1.561 MMT of soft wheat between Jan-June vs. 2.155 MMT a year ago
  • Anacer said Italy imported 622,885 tons of durum wheat between Jan-June vs. 712,222 tons a year ago
  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CDT
  • Malaysian palm oil markets closed on Monday
  • ECB president speaks in Berlin on Monday
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CDT
  • NOPA August crush report comes out on Monday at 11 am CDT expecting
    • Crush average estimate 110.7 MB (smallest since September 2011) , range of estimates are 105.5-114.0 MB. July crush was 116.338 MB and Aug 2012 crush was 124.773 MB
    • Bean oil stocks average estimate 1.856 B pounds, range of estimates are 1.750-1.980 B. July bean oil stocks were 2.050 B and August 2012 bean oil stocks were 2.168 B
    • No estimate is given for meal exports, but July exports were 351,536 tons and August 2012 exports were 613,196 tons
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CDT expecting corn and bean good to excellent ratings to fall 1-4%
  • US CPI comes out on Tuesday at 730 am CDT
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting starts on Tuesday
  • Fed announcement on Wednesday
  • China markets closed Thursday for mid-autumn festival
  • Open outcry option players
    • RJO sold 1,000 March bean 1000 puts at 1 ½ -1 ¾
    • Rosenthal sold 650 Nov bean 1450/1550 call spreads at 13 ¾
    • FC Stone bought 600 Nov bean 1360/1300 put spreads at 16 5/8 and bought 120 Nov futures at 1395
    • Macquarie bought 1,000 Nov bean 1320/1270 puts at 9 ¾ and bought 120 Nov futures at 1383
    • Rand bought 500 March bean 1280 puts and sold 500 March 1380 puts at 14-16 credit .
    • Rosenthal bought 1,000 Jan bean 1400 calls and sold 1,000 May bean 1400 calls at 8-9 debit
    • Rosenthal bought 1,000 Jan bean 1000 puts at ¾
    • JP Morgan bought 1,000 Nov bean 1420 calls at 27 ½-28 ½ and sold 390 Nov bean futures at 1385
    • JP Morgan sold 1,270 Dec corn 480put/ 600 call strangles at 32 ¾ and sold 760 Dec futures at 459
    • JP Morgan bought 1,000 March corn 490 calls at 19 ¾ and sold 471 March corn at 471
    • Knight sold 1,500 March corn 380 puts at 2 ¾ and sold 105 March futures at 471
    • ABN bought 1,500 Dec corn 440 puts , sold 750 Dec corn 410 puts and sold 750 Dec corn 470 puts at 7 ¼ credit
    • Rand bought 1,000 Dec corn 430 puts at 7 3/8
    • ABN sold 500 Dec wheat 650 calls at 21 ¼-22 ¼
    • ABN bought 800 Dec wheat 670 calls at 13 ¼ and sold 256 Dec futures at 640
    • Mann sold 300 Oct meal 440 puts at 6
    • Rosenthal sold 400 March meal 380 puts at 6.75-7.00
    • New Edge sold 600 Oct bean oil 43/42 put spreads at 55

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 3K
  • Corn sold 6K
  • Beans sold 5K
  • Meal sold 2K
  • Bean oil sold 3K

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

V vol 25 ½ 460 str 12-14

X vol 25 ¼ 460 str 31-32

Z vol 23 ¾ 460 str 38-38 ¾

H vol  22 ¼ 470 str 54 ½-55 ½

K vol 22 ½ 480 str 66-68

 

Beans

V vol 20 ¾ 1380 str 33-5

X vol 22 ¼ 1380 str 83-85

F vol 20 1380 str 118-120

H vol 19 ¾ 1340 str 138-142

K vol 18 ¾ 1320 str 151-153

N vol 19 ¼ 1300 str 162-166

 

Wheat

V vol 21 ½ 640 str 14-16

X vol 21 ½ 640 str 36-37

Z vol 21 ¼ 640 str 47-48

H vol 21 ¾ 650 str 73-75

K vol 22 660 str 90-92

N vol 22 660 str 99-101

 

KC Wheat

V vol 19 ½ 690 str 15-17

X vol 20 ½ 690 str 38-40

Z vol 20 690 str 48-50

H vol 21 700 str 74-78

N vol 21 ½ 690 str 100-105

 

Minneapolis wheat

Z vol 17 ½ 710 str 40-46

H vol 17 ¾ 720 str 64-70

K vol 18 730 str 76-86

N vol 18 ½ 730 str 88-98

 

Meal

V vol 37 440 str 16-169

X vol 31 440 str 33-36

Z vol 24.5 440 str 38-40

F vol 22.75 440 str 42.5-45

H vol 21 430 str 46.5-49

K vol 19 410 str 46.5-49.5

 

Bean oil

V vol 19.75 4250 str 80-95

X vol 18.5 4250 str 200-215

Z vol 17.5 4250 str 240-265

F vol 17 43 str 295-315

H vol 16.75 43 str 370-400

K vol 16.75 4350 str 425-450

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN              CLOSE

SEP             90-1.00            —-

OCT            63.5-65           62-63.5

DEC            61-61.5           61-61.5

JAN            58-59               58-59.5

MCH          62.5-63.5        62-63

MAY          63.5-64            61.5-63

JLY              63-64               62.5-64

DEC 14      67.5-69            67.5-70.5

 

Crush players

 

New Edge sold 400 Dec at 61.5

 

New Edge bought 400 March at 62.75-63.25

 

Oil share player

 

ABN bought 50 March oil/ 36 meal at 33.70%

 

Crush options

 

ADM sold 25 March 62 calls at 5

 

ADM sold 25 May 62 calls at 6

 

ADM sold 25 July 62 calls at 7