News From The Grain Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • The Andersons reporting quality problems in US SRW wheat due to heavy rains in the beginning of July . 7-10% of some wheat crops in southern IL and southern IN were damaged. Sprouted wheat is the worst in some areas in more than 20 years
  • CNGOIC said China has bought over 1.5 MMT of Australian wheat over the past 6 weeks
  • Analysts estimated China’s 2013 Australian wheat imports at a record higher 3-4 MMT
  • Egypt Meditrade bought 18,500 tons of sunflower oil and 25,000 tons of bean oil for Aug-Sept shipment
  • Oil World 2013 rapeseed crop estimates
    • EU at 20.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 20.4 MMT and vs. 19.41 MMT a year ago
    • Germany at 5.75 MMT unchanged from previous and vs. 4.82 MMT in 2012
    • France at 5.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 5.48 MMT in 2012
    • Britain at 2.0 MMT  vs. 2.56 MMT in 2012
    • Poland at 2.35 MMT vs. 1.90 MMT in 2012
    • Romania at 520,000 tons vs. 160,000 tons in 2012
    • Hungary at 500,000 tons vs. 400,000 tons in 2012
  • USDA attaché in Poland estimated Poland’s 2013 wheat crop at 9.2 MMT up 600K tons from 2012
  • USDA attaché in Poland estimated 2013 rapeseed crop at 2.2 MMT up 300K tons from 2012
  • German Ag Min estimated Germany’s 2013 wheat crop at 23.24 MMT
  • German Ag Min estimated Germany’s 2013 wheat yield at 7.44 TPH
  • German Ag Min estimated Germany’s 2013 barley crop at 10.09 MMT
  • German Ag Min estimated Germany’s 2013 barley yield at 6.41 TPH
  • German Ag Min estimated Germany’s 2013 winter rapeseed crop at 5.41 MMT
  • German Ag Min estimated Germany’s 2013 winter rapeseed yield at 3.71 TPH
  • Hearing Dr. Cordonnier estimated 2013 US corn yield at 153.0 BPA unchanged from previous estimate
  • Hearing Dr. Cordonnier estimated 2013 US bean yield at 42.0 BPA unchanged from previous estimate
  • Algeria 1st half of 2013 wheat imports at 3.171 MMT unchanged from a year ago
  • India’s junior Ag Minister said India’s ‘13/14 food-grain crop may exceed ‘11/12 record crop of 131.3 MMT , in ‘12/13 India’s food grain crop was 128.2 MMT
  • India’s Ag Min said as of July 26th rice , oilseeds, cotton, and sugar planting has been completed on 74.8 MH up 18% from a year ago
    • Soybeans planted on 11.7 MH up 16% from a year ago
    • Corn planted on 7.1 MH up 25% from a year ago
    • Cotton planted on 10.5 MH up 8% from a year ago
  • India’s Agriculture Commissioner estimated India’s ‘12/13 bean crop at a record 14.7 MMT
  • Iraq seeks 30K rice from US, South America, Vietnam, Thailand, or India
  • Dec meal closed slightly above the 200 day moving average of 363.80. Dec meal settled at 363.90.
  • Today was the first day of the Rogers Roll. 2 days remain. They are rolling long Sept positions in corn and wheat to Dec. In the last minute of trade 6,500 CU/CZ spreads traded at 18 on the screen and 300 traded in the pit at 17. 150 WU/WZ spreads traded in the pit at 12 ½
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • Tomorrow is first notice day for August futures. Delivery expectations for tonight are
    • Beans 0, 0 receipts registered
    • Meal 0, 0 receipts registered
    • Bean oil 1,000-3,500 (some analysts said less than 1,000) , 8,600 receipts registered
  • Tomorrow is month end
  • European unemployment comes out tomorrow
  • 2nd quarter US GDP comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT expecting +1% vs. +1.8% in the 1st quarter
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a draw of 2.3 MB
    • Gas a draw of 1.3 MB
    • Distillates a build of 600K
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek comes out tomorrow with their July Malaysian palm oil export estimates. Market expecting 1.44 MMT up 6.8% from June shipment
  • Open outcry option players
    • ABN bought 1,000 Sept bean 1300/1340 call spreads at 10 ¼
    • Bunge bought 700 Sept bean 1300/1350 call spreads at 12-12 ¼
    • Rand sold 2,000 Nov bean 1150 puts at 22 ½-23 and sold 560 Nov futures at 1214
    • FI sold 1,000 Nov bean 1300 calls at 18 ¾ and bought 260 Nov futures at 1216
    • Tenco bought 1,500 March corn 440 puts at 13 ¾ -14 ½ (My broker believes this is a new position)
    • Tenco bought 1,500 March corn 420 puts at 9 ¾-9 7/8 (My broker believes this is a new position)
    • Tenco bought 1,000 March corn 400 puts at 5 ¾ (My broker believes this is also a new position)
    • ABN bought 1,250 Dec corn 480p/600c strangles at 30 3/8-31 ½
    • ADM sold 1,000 Sept short dated corn 480 straddles at 24
    • FI sold 1,000 Sept short dated corn 500/450 put spreads at 26
    • FI bought 1,500 Sept short dated corn 450 puts at 2 ½
    • ADM bought 1,500 Sept corn 580 puts at 88 ½ and bought 1,500 Sept corn futures at 492
    • Dowd Westcott sold 2,000 Dec corn 460 puts at 19 1/8 -19 ¼ and sold 780 Dec futures at 473 -473 ¼
    • ABN bought 500 Dec wheat 680 calls at 26 ¾ and sold 225 Dec futures at 666
    • FI sold 800 Oct wheat 660 puts at 16 ½-17 ½
    • Bunge bought 1,000 Sept meal 420 calls at 13.50-14.00
    • New Edge sold 550 Sept bean oil 44/42.50 put spreads and sold 550 Dec 45.50 calls at 155 credit

 

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 2K
  • Corn bought 6K
  • Beans sold 6K
  • Meal sold 3K
  • Bean oil sold 2K

 

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

U vol 25 500 str 25-26 ½

V vol 25 480 str 35-36 ½

X vol 24 ¾ 480 str 45-47

Z vol 24 ¾ 480 str 52 ½-53 ½

H vol 24 ½ 490 str 71-72 ½

K vol 23 ¾ 500 str 80-82

Z 2014 vol 21 ¼ 510 str 96-99

 

Beans

U vol 22 ¾ 1250 str 58-59 ½

V vol 21 1200 str 76-78

X vol 21 1200 str 98-99 ½

F vol 20 1200 str 122-125

H vol 19 ¾ 1200 str 142-145

K vol 19 ½ 1200 str 158-162

 

Wheat

U vol 20 ½ 660 str 28-30

V vol 21 ¼ 670 str 42-44

Z vol 21 ¼ 670 str 65-67

H vol 21 ¼ 680 str 88-91

K vol 22 ¼ 680 str 105-109

N vol 22 ¼ 680 str 111-115

 

KC Wheat

U vol 20 700 str 28-31

V vol 20 ½ 710 str 43-46

Z vol 21 710 str 66-69

H vol 21 ½ 720 str 91-95

 

Minneapolis wheat

U vol 18 740 str 25-29

Z vol 19 750 str 61-66

H vol 19 760 str 84-91

 

Meal

U vol 35.5 410 str 30-33

V vol 27.75 370 str 31-33

Z vol 24.75 370 str 40-42

F vol 23.5 370 str 42.5-45.5

H vol 22 370 str 45-50

K vol 21.5 370 str 50-55

 

Bean oil

U vol 16.75 42.5 str 140-155

V vol 16.5 42.5 str 200-220

Z vol 16.25 42.5 str 295-315

F vol 16 43 str 330-350

H vol 16 43 str 390-420

K vol 15.75 43.5 str 440-480

 

Crush Quotes

 

OPEN                CLOSE

AUG      70-80                 55-65

SEP        1.06-1.07          1.07-1.09

OCT       77-78                 74.5-75.5

DEC        68.5-69             66.5-67.5

JAN        65.5-67             64.5-67

MCH      66.5-67             66.5-67

MAY      67.5-69              67-68

JLY         68-69                  68-69

 

Crush player

 

New Edge bought 30 Aug at 66

 

Oil share player

 

Rosenthal sold 51 March oil/meal at 37.15%

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg