News From The Grain Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • Lanworth Crop Estimates
    • ‘13/14 global corn output estimated at 965.0 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 695.94 MMT
    • ‘13/14 global bean output estimated at 286.0 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 285.5 MMT
    • ‘13/14 global wheat output estimated at 694.0 MMT vs.  USDA estimate of 701.1 MMT
    • ‘13/14 US bean crop estimated at 3.430 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.425 BB
    • ‘13/14 US wheat crop estimated at 2.02 BB unchanged from previous estimate
    • ‘13/14 US winter wheat crop estimated at 1.454 BB vs. previous estimate of 1.444 BB
    • ‘13/14 Australian wheat crop estimated at 24.1 MMT vs. previous estimates of 24.3 MMT
    • ‘13/14 Ukraine wheat crop estimated at 20.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 21.9 MMT
    • ‘12/13 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 78.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 78.5 MMT
  • Ag Canada ‘13/14 Canadian crop estimates 8 major grain and oilseeds include canola, flaxseed, soybeans, wheat, corn, oats, barley, and rye.
    • Total grain and oilseed output estimated at 74.465 MMT vs. previous estimate of 73.710 MMT and vs. 70.198 MMT a year ago
      • Wheat crop estimated at 29.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 28.4 MMT and vs. 27.2 MMT in ‘12/13
      • Corn crop estimated at 13.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 12.5 MMT and vs. 13.06 MMT in ‘12/13
      • Barley crop estimated at 8.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 9.0 MMT and vs. 8.012 MMT in ‘12/13
      • Canola crop estimated at 14.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 15.5 MMT and vs. 13.31 MMT in ‘12/13
    • Total grain and oilseed exports estimated at 34.465 MMT vs. previous estimate of 39.49 MMT and vs. 35.189 MMT a year ago
    • Total grain and oilseed domestic use estimated at 38.248 MMT vs. previous estimate of 38.103 MMT and vs. 37.875 MMT a year ago
    • Total grain and oilseed ending stocks estimated at 11.085 MMT vs. previous estimate of 10.401 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 8.455 MMT.
  • 3 day port workers strike in Rosario (Argentina) delay 50 cargo ships ,negotiations to end the strike are scheduled for tomorrow.
  • Japan’s customs data showed Japan imported 1.865 MMT of grain in April down 10% from a year ago , 717,865 tons from the US down 46% from a year ago
  • Japan’s customs data showed Japan imported 233,422 tons of beans in April up 14.2% from a year ago , 194,726 tons from the US up 14.4% from a year ago
  • Japan’s customs
  • Analysts said 66% of France’s wheat crop is in good condition , but heavy rainfall and cool weather in northeast France have delayed growth .
  • Analysts estimated France 2013 wheat crop at 36.0 MMT vs. 35.6 MMT in 2012
  • Analysts estimated France 2013 rapeseed crop at 4.5-4.8 MMT vs. 5.5 MMT in 2012
  • Germany’s Farm Coop estimated 2013 wheat crop at 23.7 MMT vs. 22.3 MMT in 2012
  • Based on a Reuters poll – South Africa’s 2013 corn crop estimated at 11.45 MMT vs. government’s last estimate of 11.56 MMT and vs. 2012 crop at 11.83 MMT
  • US Wheat Association said US wheat sales to southeast Asia remains strong , has been growing at an average of 8% per year.
  • Algeria bought 50K tons of wheat
  • Bureau of Meteorology said eastern Australia to see above-normal rainfall for June – August
  • Russia sold 44,844 tons of intervention grain. Making the total since the program started on October 23 2012 at 3,273,030 tons
  • Safras e Mercado Brazilian crop estimates from yesterday

o   ‘12/13 soybean production at 82.34 MMT vs. previous estimate of 82.50 MMT and vs. 67.76 MMT in ‘11/12

o   ‘12/13 soybean planted area at 27,840 MH vs. 25,258 MH in ‘11/12

o   ‘12/13 soybean average national yield at 2,964 TPH vs. 2,694 TPH in ‘11/12

o   ‘12/13 soybean output in Mato Grosso at 23.9 MMT vs. 22 MMT in ‘11/12

o   ‘12/13 soybean output in Parana at 15.8 MMT vs. 9.16 MMT in ‘11/12

o   ‘12/13 soybean output in RGDS at 12.45 MMT vs. 10.37 MMT in ‘11/12

o   ‘12/13 soybean exports at 38.5 MMT vs. 31.91 MMT in ‘11/12

o   ‘12/13 soybean crushing at 39.0 MMT vs. 31.31 MMT in ‘11/12

o   ‘12/13 total demand at 80.58 MMT vs. 68.49 MMT in ‘11/12

o   ‘12/13 carryout stocks at 2.86 MMT vs. 0.83 MMT in ‘11/12

  • November beans closed above the 50 day moving average of 1230. Nov beans settled at 1238 ¾
  • July bean oil closed above the 50 day moving average of 4956. July bean oil settled at 4964
  • Dec meal closed above the 50 day moving average of 343.90. Dec meal settled at 350.10
  • Chinese and European economic data comes out tomorrow
  • ECB president to speak tomorrow in London on “Future of Europe”
  • Weekly US jobless claims comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT expecting
    • Wheat 400-700K
    • Corn 200-500K
    • Beans 400-800K
    • Meal 100-225
    • Bean oil  0-15K
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting +92 B
  • Open outcry option players
    • JP Morgan sold 1,000 July bean 1440/1540 call spreads at 41-43
    • RJO bought 1,800 July bean 1380 puts at 5 ½ -6 ½
    • ADM bought 1,000 July bean 1370 puts at 4 5/8 -4 ¾
    • Tenco bought 1,000 Dec corn 500 puts at 27 3/8 -27 ½
    • Tenco sold 2,500 Dec 500/580 put spreads at 47 ½-48
    • Tenco bought 2,000 July corn 600 puts at 4 and bought 280 July futures at 647 ½
    • RJO bought 3,500 Dec corn 650 calls at 7 ¾ -9 ¼
    • ADM sold 2,000 July corn 660 calls at 14-17 ½
    • Rosenthal bought 1,000 N/Z corn CSO 100 puts at 10-11
    • Macquarie bought 1,500 Sept corn 560 calls at 32 and bought 765 Sept futures at 555
    • Tenco sold 2,000 short dated July corn 530 straddles at 30 ¾ -31
    • Macquarie sold 1,000 July corn 660 calls at 16 ¼ and bought 450 July futures at 652 ¼
    • FC Stone bought 2,500 Dec corn 700 calls at 5 ¼
    • FC Stone bought 2,500 Dec corn 670 calls at 7 3/8 – 7 ½
    • RJO sold 1,000 July corn 660 calls at 17-17 ¼ and bought 480 July futures at 655
    • Jefferies sold 1,200 August 510 puts at 10 ½
    • ADM bought 1,000 Sept short dated corn 520 puts and sold 2,000 Sept short dated 460 puts at 12 ½ -12 ¾
    • JP Morgan bought 1,000 July wheat 720 calls at 9 5/8 -10
    • ABN bought 1,300 July wheat 690/730 call spreads and sold 1,000 June wheat 680 calls at even
    • ABN bought 1,000 June wheat 680 puts at 2 ½ -2 ¾
    • JP Morgan bought 2,000 Dec wheat 700 puts at 45 ¾ -46 ¼ and bought 900 Dec futures at 709
    • Futures International bought 300 July meal 420 puts at 5.50
    • ADM bought 300 July meal 440 calls at 12.00
    • Tenco sold 125 July bean oil 49p/50c strangles at 140 tied to 4955

 

Estimated Fund Activity

  • Wheat bought 2,500
  • Corn bought  10,000
  • Beans bought 4,000
  • Meal bought 1,000
  • Bean oil bought  1,000

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

M vol 25 660 str 11 ½ -13

N vol 25 ½ 660 str 38 ½ -40

Q vol 30 ¾ 560 str 57 ½ -59 ½ .

U vol 30 ½ 560 str 68 ½ -70

Z vol 26 ¾ 530 str 79 ½ -81

H vol 25 540 str 92 ½ -93 ½

 

Beans

M vol 22 ½ 1490 str 24-25 ½

N vol 20 ½ 1490 str 70 ½ -71 ½

Q vol 21 ¼ 1410 str 100-102 ½

U vol 20 ½ 1300 str 106 ½ -109

X vol 19 ¼ 1240 str 123 ½ -126

F vol 18 ½ 1240 str 140-144

H vol 18 1240 str 152 ½ -157 ½

 

Wheat

M vol 25 690 str 11-13

N vol 25 ½ 690 str 39-41

Q vol 27 ½ 700 str 64-66

U vol 27 ½ 700 str 77-79

Z vol 25 ¾ 710 str 102-103

H vol 24 730 str 119-121

 

Minneapolis wheat

N vol 21 810 str 36-41

U vol 22 ½ 800 str 69-77

Z vol 21 810 str 92-102

H vol 21 830 str 105-120

 

No KC wheat info today

 

Meal

M vol 21.5 440 str 7.5-9

N vol 24 440 str 25-27

Q vol 23.75 410 str 32.5-35

U vol 23.5 380 str 35.5-38.5

V vol 22.5 350 str 35.5-38.5

Z vol 21.75 350 str 42-45

F vol 21.25 350 str 45-48

 

Bean oil

M vol 17.5 49.5 str 45-65

N vol 17.5 49.5 str 185-195

Q vol 18 49.5 str 280-300

U vol 18 49 str 340-360

V vol 17.75 49 str 375-400

Z vol 17.75 48.5 str 460-490

F vol 17.5 str 48.5 str 500-520

 

Crush players

 

Cunningham bought 650 Sept crush at 81-83.5

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg