News From the Grain Floor 6/27/13

Good morning

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder  – orignal  greek anon – modern day Margaret Wolfe Hungerford

‘Beauty is truth, truth beauty’  – John Keats

therefore based on the transitive property of equality Truth is in the eye of the beholder  – Thomas Haley

Today is position day for July futures. Tomorrow is first notice day. Traders should be out of long positions by the close today or risk delivery.

 

Delivery expectations for tonight

·         Wheat 0

·         KC wheat – analyst said KC deliveries cannot be completely ruled out but it doesn’t “pencil”

·         Corn 0

·         Beans 0

·         Meal 0

·         Bean oil 500-1,500

Receipt Registrations as of 6/26/13

·         Wheat 2

·         Corn 1

·         Meal 0

·         Beans 0

·         Oats 20

·         Ethanol 22

·         Bean oil 9,127

·         Rice 1,568

 

USDA reported 172,500 new crop US beans sold to Unknown

 

Overnight closes

·         SX up 2 ¾ at 1278 ¾

·         CZ down 2 ¼ at 541 ¾

·         WU up 3 at 680

·         SMZ up .80 at 386.30

·         BOZ up 14 at 4560

·         RRU unchanged at 1569.50

Overnight volume

·         SX 7,613

·         CZ 8,012

·         WU 6,316

·         SMZ 3,076

·         BOZ 5,124

·         RRU 19

Opening calls

·         Beans 2-4 higher

·         Corn 2-4 lower

·         Wheat 2-4 higher

·         Meal .50-1.00 higher

·         Bean oil 10-20 higher

·         Rice steady

Crude, gold, silver, and stock market is higher. Dollar is lower

Nikkei up 2.957%

Hang Seng up .499%

Shanghai Index down .071%

Weekly US jobless claims report came out at – 9K to 346K expecting 345K

German June jobless claims – 12K expecting +5K

Ongoing economic concerns in Asia and Europe (Dow Jones)

Palm oil down 28. Chinese grain markets lower except for meal was higher

Indonesia Trade Ministry raised July CPO export tax to 10.5% vs. 9% currently

RHB Investment Bank in Kuala Lumpur said “South American bean production has been pretty good and it seems like SA has pretty good crush margins , when more bean oil comes out of South America it will complete with palm oil”

Surveyor SGS estimated June 1-25th Malaysian palm oil exports at 1.13 MMT up 6.3% from a month ago market was expecting 1.17 M MT

CNGOIC said China’s demand for meal is expected to increase in the 2nd half of 2013

Hearing China bought 1 cargo of US beans yesterday for Sept-Oct shipment

Hearing China bought 2 cargoes of Brazilian beans yesterday for May shipment

Oil World estimated ‘13/14 global production of 17 veg oils and fats at 193.8 MMT vs. 187.3 MMT a year ago

South Korea KOCOPIA bought 55K tons of Brazilian corn for October shipment

UK’s AHDB estimated North Africa’s ‘13/14 grain output at 32.3 MMT up 17% from a year ago

analysts expect Morocco’s ‘13/14 grain production to increase by 81% from ‘12/13 output – Wheat output estimated at 6.8 MMT vs. 3.9 MMT a year ago

General Statistics Office estimated Vietnam June rice exports at 750K tons up 6.4% from May and down 14.5% from a year ago

General Statistics Office estimated Vietnam’s January – June rice exports at 3.669 MMT down 4.2% from a year ago

35 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon . 16 out of South Dakota Soybean Processors and 19 out of Cargill Buffalo IA

6 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

Favorable Midwest weather forecast

Western Australia is dry until June 30th . Rainfall in June is 40% below normal in much of Western Australia , placing stress on crops

Dec KC wheat hit fresh one year lows overnight of 725 ¾. Versus yesterday low of 727

Weekly US export sales report

·         Wheat ‘13/14 731,800 (expecting 300-500K)

·         Corn ‘12/13 336,700 ‘13/14 153,600 (expecting 200-500K)

·         Beans ‘12/13 14,500 ‘13/14 451,100 (expecting 100-400K)

·         Meal ‘12/13 9,200 ‘13/14 100 (expecting 50-150K)

·         Bean oil ‘12/13 2,900 (expecting 0-10K)

·         Cotton ‘12/13 57,000 ‘13/14 – 7,100

Export highlights

·         Wheat – Net sales of 731,800 MT for delivery in the 2013/2014 marketing year were primarily for Brazil (119,300 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Taiwan (113,400 MT, including 26,600 MT switched from unknown destinations), Peru (99,000 MT), Japan (89,500 MT), Nigeria (82,300 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and unknown destinations (76,600 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from China). Decreases were reported for China (24,500 MT) and Panama (1,700 MT). Exports of 479,000 MT were primarily to Brazil (137,300 MT), Nigeria (104,100 MT), Mexico (58,300 MT), Egypt (58,100 MT), Taiwan (27,900 MT), and Japan (25,700 MT).

·         Corn – Net sales of 336,700 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for unknown destinations (140,100 MT), Japan (72,100 MT), Venezuela (58,000 MT, including 20,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Costa Rica (25,000 MT), and Mexico (11,400 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Canada (1,400 MT). Net sales of 153,600 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for Mexico (77,400 MT), unknown destinations (62,900 MT), and Japan (7,100 MT). Exports of 151,200 MT were down 53 percent from the previous week and 52 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Venezuela (58,000 MT), Mexico (46,400 MT), Japan (25,500 MT), and Honduras (13,900 MT).

·         Beans – Net sales of 14,500 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Indonesia (87,700 MT, including 83,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Malaysia (25,000 MT, including 24,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Colombia (4,000 MT), Taiwan (3,000 MT), and Guatemala (2,600 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (107,000 MT) and Mexico (4,500 MT). Net sales of 451,100 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for China (360,000 MT), Mexico (53,000 MT), and Indonesia (15,000 MT). Exports of 223,000 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and 95 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Indonesia (87,900 MT), Mexico (61,900 MT), Japan (26,900 MT), Malaysia (25,000 MT), and Morocco (10,500 MT).

·         Meal – Net sales of 9,200 MT for 2012/2013–a marketing-year low–were down 65 percent from the previous week and 91 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Trinidad (25,000 MT), Mexico (24,900 MT), Guatemala (17,000 MT, including 16,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Venezuela (14,300 MT, including 13,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and El Salvador (12,000 MT, including 3,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), were partially offset by decreases for Panama (36,300 MT), unknown destinations (32,900 MT), Colombia (30,000 MT), and the Dominican Republic (10,400 MT). Net sales of 100 MT for 2013/2014 were for Canada. Exports of 140,800 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (37,300 MT), Venezuela (28,300 MT), Guatemala (17,000 MT), Canada (16,200 MT), the Dominican Republic (10,800 MT), and Nicaragua (6,300 MT).

·         Bean oil – Net sales of 2,900 MT for 2012/2013 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 76 percent and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Venezuela (2,500 MT), Canada (100 MT), and Lebanon (100 MT). Exports of 1,400 MT–a marketing-year–low were down 48 percent from the previous week and 81 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (700 MT) and Canada (600 MT).

·         Cotton – Net Upland sales of 57,000 running bales for 2012/2013 were down 18 percent from the previous week and 52 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (24,500 RB, including 400 RB switched from South Korea), Turkey (10,400 RB), Brazil (6,400 RB), Vietnam (4,000 RB), and Japan (2,200 RB). Decreases were reported for South Korea (1,300 RB). Net sales reductions of 7,100 RB for 2013/2014 resulted as increases for Indonesia (6,400 RB) and Peru (1,600 RB), were more than offset by decreases for South Korea (8,500 RB), Turkey (4,200 RB)Mexico (1,600 RB), and Morocco (1,400 RB). Exports of 130,500 RB were down 31 percent from the previous week and 48 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (41,600 RB), Turkey (17,700 RB), Mexico (15,900 RB), Thailand (11,700 RB), and Indonesia (8,900 RB). Net American Pima sales of 10,600 RB for 2012/2013 were reported for China (5,300 RB), Indonesia (3,100 RB), and Peru (2,000 RB). Net sales of 200 MT for 2013/2014 were for Japan. Exports of 18,800 RB were down 24 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily to China (12,100 RB), India (4,600 RB), and Japan (900 RB).

Estimates for Tomorrow’s USDA Quarterly Stocks and 2013 US Acreage Report. Report comes out at 11 am CDT

 

Estimate for US quarterly grain stocks as of June 1st

·         Wheat (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .750 BB, range of estimates are .732-.781 BB. June 1st 2012 wheat stocks were .743 BB and March 1st 2013 wheat stocks were 1.234 BB

·         Corn (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.856 BB, range of estimates are 2.761-3.000 BB . June 1st 2012 corn stocks were 3.148 BB and March 1st 2013 corn stocks were 5.399 BB.

·         Beans (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .441 BB, range of estimates are .413-.490 BB . June 1st 2012 bean stocks were .667 BB and March 1st 2013 bean stocks were .999 BB

 

Estimates for 2013 US Acreage

  • Corn (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 95.340 MA, range of estimates are 94.2-96.4 MA. USDA March estimate was 97.282 MA and 2012 US final corn acreage was 97.155 MA
  • Beans (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 78.024 MA , range of estimates are 77.1-79.24 MA. USDA March estimate was 77.126 MA and 2012 US final bean acreage was 77.198 MA
  • All wheat (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 55.751 MA, range of estimates are 55.2-56.4 MA. USDA March estimate was 56.44 MA and 2012 US final all wheat acreage was 55.736 MA
  • Spring wheat (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 12.117 MA, range of estimates are 11.7-12.7 MA. USDA March estimate was 12.701 MA and 2012 US final spring wheat acreage was 12.289 MA
  • Durum (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.657 MA, range of estimates are 1.55-1.80 MA. USDA March estimate was 1.751 MA and 2012 US final durum acreage was 2.123 MA

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

·         CN 63,826 open, down 25,901

·         CZ 525,665 open, down 1,462

·         Total corn 1,132,787 open, down 22,670

·         SN 31,026 open, down 16,501

·         SX 360,900 open, up 4,318

·         Total beans 553,686 open, down 8,886

·         SMN 25,640 open, down 7,084

·         SMZ 158,779 open, down 195

·         Total meal 310,772 open, down 5,870

·         BON 17,597 open, down 6,981

·         BOZ 158,378 open, up 166

·         Total bean oil 338,213 open, down 1,996

·         WN 17,599 open, down 6,304

·         WU 179,326 open, up 6,813

·         Total wheat 392,056 open, up 3,147

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CDT expecting +88 B
  • USDA grain stocks and Planted acreage report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CDT –
  • Tomorrow is month end and the end of the quarter.
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT
  • See attachment for 4th of July holiday trading schedule

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg