News From the Grain Floor 6/26/13

Good morning

The illegal we do immediately; the unconstitutional takes a little longer

Henry Kissinger

Overnight closes

·         SX down 3 ¼ at 1275 ¼

·         CZ up a ½ at 545

·         WU up 1 at 686

·         SMZ down 1.30 at 383.30

·         BOZ down 20 at 4575

·         RRU up 4 at 1567

Overnight volume

·         SX 10,427

·         CZ 7,360

·         WU 4,324

·         SMZ 3,045

·         BOZ 4,854

·         RRU 104

Dollar and stock market higher. Crude, gold , and silver lower.

Nikkei down 1.043%

Hang Seng up 2.432%

Shanghai Index up .045%

US 1st quarter GDP came out this morning at +1.8% expecting +2.4%

ECB president said “monetary policy will stay accommodative for the foreseeable future”

Weekly API energy inventory report

·         Crude draw of 28,000 expecting a draw of 1.7 MB

·         Gas build of 1.334 MB expecting a build of 900K

·         Distillates build of 527,000 expecting a build of 600,000 \

Palm oil down 32 Chinese grain markets mixed higher meal and beans unchanged corn and lower oils

South Korea MFG bought 120K Black Sea origin feed wheat for Aug-Sept shipment

Japan seeks 120K feed wheat and 200K feed barley via SBS tender for October shipment

Taiwan BSPA canceled bean tender for 120K tons of South American or US origin beans

Iraq seeks 15K any origin (except China and Ukraine) sunflower oil

Beijing Orient Agri-business Consultant CO said rains in China have damaged up to 10.0 MMT of Chinese wheat and this may boost wheat imports

China approved another 2 strains of GMO corn for import

Hearing a Chinese crush bought 2 cargoes of Brazilian beans yesterday 1 cargo for August shipment and 1 cargo for April shipment

Syria seeks 135K tons of rice

Ukraine Ag Min said as of June 25 Ukraine has harvested 2.19 MMT of grain on 943,000 hectares with an average yield of 2.32 TPH . A year ago Ukraine had harvested 584K tons of grain on 354K hectares with an average yield of 1.65 MMT

Russia sold 32,325 tons of intervention grain today making the total since 10/23/12 at 3,642,888 tons

Russia Grain Union estimated ‘13/14 Russia grain crop at below the Ag Min estimate of 95.0 MMT and estimated ‘13/14 wheat crop below the Ag Min estimate of 54.0 MMT

Russia Grain Union estimated ‘13/14 Russia grain exports at 15-20 vs. 15 M a year ago

Toepfer estimated 2013 German wheat crop at 24.18 MMT vs. previous estimate of 23.35 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 22.33 MMT

CEC estimated South Africa 2013 corn crop at 11.375 MMT as expected vs. previous estimate of 11.44 MMT

Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus has spread to 199 US farms

Vietnam Ag Min estimated the first half of 2013 rice exports at 3.57 MMT down 6.8% from a year ago

Yesterday in the open outcry market ADM bought 1,500 July/Nov bean spreads at 243.

15 oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon 9 out of South Dakota Soybean Processors Volga SD and 6 out of Cargill Buffalo IA

22 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

Dec corn 50 day moving average is 543

Dec corn 100 day moving average is 549 ¼

Oil World

·         Expecting 3rd quarter global meal production to rise 3.0 MMT from 2nd quarter production to 46.7 MMT

·         Expecting meal prices to fall

·         Is bearish oilseeds

·         Estimated ‘13/14 global 10 main oilseeds output at 484.5 MMT vs. 463.5 MMT a year ago

·         Estimated ‘13/14 global bean crop at 284.2 MMT vs. 266.1 MMT a year ago

·         Estimated ‘13/14 global sunflower seeds crop at 38.9 MMT vs. 35.9 MMT a year ago

·         Estimated ‘13/14 global rapeseed crop at 63.5 MMT vs. 62.7 MMT a year ago

Dr. Cordonnier weekly Report

·         Estimated 2013 US corn yield at 153.0 BPA unchanged from previous estimate

·         Estimated 2013 US corn crop at 13.26 BB unchanged from previous estimate

·         Estimated 2013 US corn planting area at 94.3 MA unchanged from previous estimate

·         Estimated 2013 US bean yield at 42.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 42.5 BPA

·         Estimated 2013 US bean crop at 3.26 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.22 BB

·         Estimated 2013 US bean planting area at 77.87 MA unchanged from previous estimate

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

·         CN 92,137 open, down 25,511

·         CZ 527,859 open, down 2,168

·         Total corn 1,158,730 open, down 26,781

·         SN 47,600 open, down 16,839

·         SX 357,128 open,  up 3,875

·         Total beans 563,485 open, down 11,059

·         SMN 32,829 open, down 7,021

·         SMZ 158,981 open, up 2,528

·         Total meal 316,806 open, down 334

·         BON 24,839 open, down 9,641

·         BOZ 158,265 open, up 1,222

·         Total bean oil 340,504 open, down 2,138

·         WN 23,814 open, down 8,069

·         WU 172,678 open, up 2,272

·         Total wheat 389,092 open, down 4,363

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.75 MB
    • Gas a build of 875K
    • Distillates a build of 650K
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out today at 930 am CDT
  • Tomorrow  German June unemployment comes out and Japan economic data comes out
  • Surveyor SGS will come out with their June 1-25th Malaysian palm oil export estimates
  • Thursday June 27th is position day for July futures
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Friday June 28th is First Notice Day for July futures Deliveries expected
    • Wheat 0
    • KC wheat light to none
    • Meal 0
    • Corn 0
    • Beans 0
    • Bean oil 500-1500
  • USDA grain stocks and Planted acreage report comes out on Friday at 11 am CDT –
  • Friday June 28th is month end and the end of the quarter.

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg