News From the Grain Floor 6/25/13

Good morning

Baseball is like church. Many attend few understand.

Leo Durocher

This day in baseball – 1976 – Ranger Toby Harrah becomes the first shortstop in major-league history to go through an entire doubleheader without a fielding chance. At the plate, Harrah makes up for the inactivity, collecting six hits, including a grand slam in the opener and another round-tripper in the nightcap. The Rangers beat the White Sox in the first game 8-4, but lose the nightcap 14-9.

Overnight closes

·         SX up 7 at 1280 ½

·         CZ up 1 ½ at 548

·         WU up 5 at 692 ¾

·         SMZ up 3.10 at 382.90

·         BOZ up 15 at 4641

·         RRU up 6 at 1571 ¾

Overnight volume

·         SX 12,015

·         CZ 8,817

·         WU 5,896

·         SMZ 3,760

·         BOZ 5,366

·         RRU 57

Opening calls

·         Beans 6-8 higher

·         Corn 1-2 higher

·         Wheat 4-6 higher

·         Meal 3-4 higher

·         Bean oil  10-20 higher

·         Rice 5-7 higher

Crude , gold, silver, stock market, and dollar all higher this morning

Nikkei down .715%

Hang Seng up .211%

Shanghai Index down .176%

Palm oil up 8China grain markets higher except for oils were lower

Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s June 1-25th palm oil exports at 1.17 MMT up 9.7% from a month ago . Market was expecting this

Surveyor SGS delayed their estimate of Malaysia’s June 1-25th exports until Thursday no reason was given

China’s Ministry of Commerce estimated China’s June imports at 8.32 MMT (record) up 63% from May

Frequent heavy showers delaying loading operations in Paranagua port

Japan seeks 58K food wheat and 33K food barley via SBS tender

Ukraine’s National Weather Center estimated 2013 grain crop at 52-53 MMT vs. 46.2 MMT in 2012

Ukraine harvest has begun average yields are 2.25 TPH vs. 1.64 TPH a year ago

Russia sold 39,477 tons of Intervention grain making the total since Oct 23rd 3,610,563

Russia’s Ag Min said Southern Russia grain harvest as of June 24th 2.1 MMT grain harvested on 5011,600 hectares with an average yield of 4.17 TPH vs. 2.98 TPH a year ago . Including 755,900 tons of wheat on 176,500 hectares average yield of 4.28 TPH vs. 3.08 TPH a year ago

Russia’s Ag Min said northern Russia will start harvesting later this week

16 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Buffalo IA

Favorable Midwest crop weather

Rising waters along the Mississippi River may halt barge loadings in the next few days

Stats Canada came out this morning with their 2013 Acreage report

  • Canada all wheat area estimated at 26.18 MA vs. average estimate 26.183 MA, range of estimates are 25.3-27 MA  . In April Stats Canada estimated wheat area at 26.618 MA and vs. 2012 acreage of 23.706 MA
  • Canada canola area estimated at 19.74 MA vs. average estimate 19.635 MA, range of estimates are 19-20.117 MA, In April they estimated canola area at 19.133 MA and vs. 2012 acreage of 21.531 MA
  • Canada barley area estimated at 7.17 MA vs. average estimate 7.158 MA, range of estimates are 6.8-7.5 MA. In April they estimated the area at 7.24 MA and vs. 2012 acreage of 7.405 MA
  • Canada oat area estimated at 3.37 MA vs. average estimate 3.27 MA, range of estimates are 3.0-3.5 MA. In April they estimated the area at 3.379 MA and vs. 2012 acreage of 2.854 MA
  • Canada corn area estimated at 3.645 MA average estimate 3.743 MA, range of estimates are 3.4-3.95 MA. In April they estimated the area at 3.813 MA and vs. 2012 acreage of 3.544 MA
  • Canada soybean area estimated at 4.589 MA vs. 2012 acreage of 4.153 MA

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Condition 65% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago and vs. 56% a year ago. Market was expecting conditions to go up 1-3% this week
  • Emerged 96% vs. 92% a week ago and vs. 99% 5 year average
  • Iowa corn planting is 96% complete – 570,000 acres remaining
  • Minnesota corn planting 96% complete – 360K acres remaining
  • North Dakota corn planting 96% complete – 160K acres remaining
  • Wisconsin corn planting 92% complete – 350K acres remaining  

Beans

  • Condition 65% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago and vs. 53% a year ago . Market was expecting conditions to go up 1-3% this week
  • Planted 92% vs. 85% a week ago and vs. 99% 5 year average . Market was expecting 92-97% complete.
  • Emerged 81% vs. 66% a week ago and vs. 89% 5 year average

Spring wheat

  • Condition 70% good to excellent up 2% from a week ago and vs. 77% a year ago . Market was expecting good to excellent conditions to go up by 1-2% this week
  • Planted 96% vs. 92% a week ago and vs. 99% 5 year average
  • Emerged 90% vs. 84% a week ago and vs. 97% 5 year average

Winter wheat

  • Condition 32% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago and vs. 54% a week ago
  • Harvested 20% vs. 11% a week ago and vs. 37% 5 year average . Market was expecting about 25% complete
  • Headed 95% vs. 89% a week ago and vs. 95% 5 year average

Rice

  • Condition 68% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 71% a year ago
  • Headed 3% vs. 15% a year ago and vs. 6% 5 year average

Cotton

  • Condition 43% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago and vs. 50% a year ago
  • Squaring 23% vs. 10% a week ago and vs. 29% 5 year average

Moving averages

·         Nov beans 200 day 1289 ¼

·         Dec corn 100 day 549 ¾

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

·         CN 118,883 open, down 17,163

·         CZ 529,930 open, down 8,013

·         Total corn 1,186,735 open, down 22,623

·         SN 65,065 open, down 17,494

·         SX 353,515 open, up 3,806

·         Total beans 575,643 open, down 12,103

·         SMN 40,277 open, down 3,932

·         SMZ 156,621 open, up 4,780

·         Total meal 317,780 open , up 4,531

·         BON 34,885 open, down 12,878

·         BOZ 157,420 open, up 2,697

·         Total bean oil 343,478 open, down 3,254

·         WN 32,221 open, down 16,050

·         WU 170,586 open, up 5,542

·         Total wheat 394,458 open, down 9,629

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • US 1st quarter GDP comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a draw of 2.0 MB
    • Gas a build of 1.0 MB
    • Distillates a build of 1.0 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • On Thursday German June unemployment comes out and Japan economic data comes out
  • Thursday June 27th is position day for July futures
  • Friday June 28th is First Notice Day for July futures
  • USDA grain stocks and Planted acreage report comes out on Friday at 11 am CDT – I will have estimates for the report in my afternoon recap.
  • Friday June 28th is month end and the end of the quarter.

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg