News From the Grain Floor 6/20/13

Good morning

“Give us your poor, your tired, your huddled masses longing to be free…”

THE STATUE OF LIBERTY

We should welcome immigrants from across the globe, but you can’t welcome them with a full welfare state.

Senator Ted Cruz

Overnight closes

·         SN down 14 at 1509

·         SX down 17 ½ at 1293 ¼

·         CN down 6 ¾ at 675 ½

·         CZ down 8 ½ at 562

·         WN  down 9 ¼ at 697 ¾

·         WU down 9 ¾ at 704 ½

·         SMN 2.40 at 451.20

·         SMZ down 6.00 at 380.60

·         BON down 53 at 4882

·         BOZ down 34 at 4786

·         RRN down 5 at 1623

Overnight volume

·         SN 4,896

·         SX 15,606

·         CN 7,744

·         CZ 18,200

·         WN 9,274

·         WU 6,473

·         SMN 2,634

·         SMZ 5,503

·         BON 6,278.

·         BOZ 7,091

·         RRN 260

Opening calls

·         Beans 13-16 lower

·         Corn 7-9 lower

·         Wheat 9-11 lower

·         Meal 4-6 lower

·         Bean oil 30-40 lower

·         Rice 4-6 lower

Dollar sharply higher.  Crude, gold, silver, and stock market sharply lower

Nikkei down 1.741%

Hang Seng down 2.878%

Shanghai Index down 2.771%

All world stock markets lower

Analysts expect that China will not ease its current monetary policy

Feds said yesterday they may taper bond buying program

China’s flash June HSBC PMI at 48.3 (9 month low) vs. 49.2 in May

Eurozone flash June PMI at 48.7 expecting 48.6 and vs. 48.3 in May

German June flash PMI at 48.7 expecting 49.9 and vs. 49.4 in May

France June flash PMI at 48.3 expecting 47.0 and vs. 46.4 in May

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at +18K to 354K expecting 340K

Argentina is on holiday today and tomorrow .

Palm oil down 7. Chinese grain markets beans lower, meal corn and bean oil higher and palm oil unchanged

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s June 1-20th palm oil exports at 916,768 tons up 13.6% from a month ago

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s June 1-20th palm oil exports at 928,810 tons up 16% from a month ago

Talk on Monday and Tuesday China buying or seeking Australian wheat. Yesterday there were reports of China buying 200K tons of French wheat.

Morocco buying Argentine meal for July shipment

Taiwan bought 85,500 tons of US wheat for July – Aug shipment with non GM guarantee

Japan bought 152,231 tons of milling wheat – excluding US white wheat for the 4th week for July / Sept shipment

  • 29,450 tons HRW US wheat
  • 35,453 tons of DNS US Wheat
  • 60,882 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat
  • 26,446 tons of Australian wheat

Japan has bought 473,365 tons of wheat so far this month the most in seven months.

Iraq bought 80K Thailand rice

China’s Ag Min said China has planted 55.2% of their summer grain crop up 1.8% from a year ago . China has planted 68.7% of their corn crop

Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentine ‘12/13 bean crop at 48.3 MMT unchanged from previous estimate . Argentine Ag Min estimated it at 50.2 MMT yesterday and vs. USDA estimate at 51.0 MMT

Argentine wheat prices at all-time highs due to shrinking supplies

Russia’s federal statistics agency said June 1st grain stocks were at 11.0 MMT down 34.3% from a year ago

Strategie Grains estimated EU 28 ‘13/14 soft wheat crop at 131.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 130.9 MMT

Strategie Grains estimated EU 28 ‘13/14 corn crop at 66.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 66.4 MMT

Today’s weather forecast took away yesterday’s ridging model .

17 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of South Dakota Soybean Processors Volga SD

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange Weekly Argentine crop Report

·         Said bean harvest is complete

·         Estimated Argentine bean crop at 48.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

·         Corn harvest is 71.8% complete vs. 66.3% a week ago

·         Estimated corn crop at 24.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

·         Said wheat crop is 42% planted vs. 52.5% a year ago

·         Estimated ‘13/14 Argentine wheat area at 3.9 MH

·         Said sorghum harvest is 69% complete

·         Estimated Sorghum crop at 4.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

Weekly US export sales report

·         Wheat ‘13/14 432,700 ‘14/15 2,000 (expecting 300-650K)

·         Corn ‘12/13 133,400  ‘13/14 77,100 (expecting 200-450K)

·         Beans ‘12/13 52,600 ‘13/14 108,500 (expecting 350-600K)

·         Meal ‘12/13 26,600 ‘13/14 114,600 (expecting 100-200K)

·         Bean oil ‘12/13 700 (expecting 5-15K)

·         Cotton ‘12/13 69,800 ‘13/14 81,400

Export highlights

·         Wheat – Net sales of 432,700 MT for delivery in the 2013/2014 marketing year were primarily for the Philippines (120,600 MT), China (90,800 MT, including 50,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (72,000 MT), Brazil (47,300 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,900 MT), Indonesia (40,000 MT), and Nigeria (27,500 MT). Decreases were reported for Peru (43,000 MT), Taiwan (1,700 MT), and Trinidad (1,500 MT). Net sales of 2,000 MT for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were for Mexico. Exports of 619,100 MT were primarily to Brazil (195,300 MT), Mexico (89,300 MT), China (57,800 MT), Japan (56,900 MT), Guatemala (50,300 MT), and the Philippines (44,100 MT).

·         Corn – Net sales of 133,400 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Japan (132,400 MT, including 43,500 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (32,600 MT), Venezuela (30,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Guatemala (10,400 MT, switched from unknown destinations), and El Salvador (8,500 MT, switched from unknown destinations), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (72,300 MT) and Jamaica (14,500 MT). Net sales of 77,100 MT for 2013/2014 were for Mexico (80,400 MT), Taiwan (4,500 MT), China (4,000 MT), and Colombia (4,000 MT). Decreases were reported for Jamaica (8,300 MT) and Panama (7,500 MT). Exports of 322,400 MT were up 39 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (118,300 MT), Japan (93,000 MT), Venezuela (48,000 MT), and Panama (30,100 MT).

·         Beans – Net sales of 52,600 MT for 2012/2013 were up 57 percent from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (36,900 MT), Taiwan (6,000 MT), Canada (3,000 MT), Indonesia (2,600 MT), and Vietnam (2,200 MT). Net sales of 108,500 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for China (55,000 MT), Mexico (30,000 MT), and unknown destinations (16,000 MT). Exports of 92,700 MT–a marketing-year low–were down 28 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (45,400 MT), Indonesia (8,800 MT), Taiwan (8,800 MT), Vietnam (6,900 MT), and Venezuela (6,000 MT).

·         Meal – Net sales of 26,600 MT for 2012/2013–a marketing-year low–were down 73 percent from the previous week and 79 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Mexico (40,700 MT), Canada (9,500 MT), the Dominican Republic (9,000 MT), Israel (8,000 MT), and Japan (5,900 MT, including 3,100 MT switched from unknown destinations), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (43,100 MT), Jamaica (6,700 MT), Colombia (4,000 MT), and Sri Lanka (2,800 MT). Net sales of 114,600 MT for 2013/2014 were for unknown destinations (78,000 MT) and the Philippines (40,000 MT). Decreases were reported for Jamaica (2,700 MT) and Canada (600 MT). Exports of 68,500 MT–a marketing-year low–were down 55 percent from the previous week and 52 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Canada (15,400 MT), Panama (13,600 MT), Venezuela (10,000 MT), Bangladesh (5,100 MT), Colombia (5,100 MT), and Japan (4,400 MT).

·         Bean oil – Net sales of 700 MT for 2012/2013 were down 95 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Canada (300 MT) Trinidad (100 MT), Saudi Arabia (100 MT), and Lebanon (100 MT). Exports of 2,600 MT were down 79 percent from the previous week and 72 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (1,500 MT), Canada (800 MT), Lebanon (100 MT), and Saudi Arabia (100 MT).

·         Cotton – Net Upland sales of 69,800 running bales for 2012/2013 were down 31 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (24,600 RB), Turkey (22,000 RB), Vietnam (13,700 RB), Colombia (10,100 RB, including 9,300 MT switched from Mexico), and Ecuador (5,500 RB). Decreases were reported for Mexico (8,600 RB) and Indonesia (1,700 RB). Net sales of 81,400 RB for 2013/2014 were reported primarily for China (48,400 RB), South Korea (12,200 RB), and Mexico (9,100 RB). Decreases were reported for Indonesia (1,800 RB). Exports of 187,900 RB were down 19 percent from the previous week and 28 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (66,800 RB), Turkey (28,500 RB), Vietnam (18,300 RB), Mexico (17,200 RB), South Korea (11,000 RB), and Indonesia (10,200 RB). Net American Pima sales of 1,200 RB for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for China (1,300 RB), Turkey (200 RB, switched from Switzerland), and Thailand (200 RB). Decreases were reported for Bangladesh (400 RB) and Switzerland (200 RB). Exports of 24,800 RB were up 23 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily to China (18,900 RB), India (2,800 RB), and Indonesia (900 RB).

Moving averages

·         SX 200 day 1290 ¾

·         WN 50 day 701 ¼

·         WU 50 day 709 ¼

·         BON 50 day 4899

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

·         CN 181,900 open, down 24,995

·         CU 334,722 open, up 7,794

·         CZ 534,171 open, up 15,092

·         SN 132,501 open, down 11,453

·         SX 347,194 open, up 10,542

·         Total beans 625,028 open, up 3,456

·         SMN 62,565 open, down 3,726

·         SMZ 144,957 open, up 7,080

·         Total meal 319,810 open, up 4,317

·         BON 66,552 open, down 11,394

·         BOZ 149,716 open, up 1,491

·         Total bean oil 351,420 open, down 4,255

·         WN 81,436 open, down 12,691

·         WU 158,265 open, up 6,931

·         WZ  124,301 open, up 6,094

·         Total wheat 422,101 open, up 773

Upcoming reports/events

·         Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am expecting +88 B

  • July options expire tomorrow
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT
  • Brazilian port workers may strike on June 25th
  • Argentine farm leaders meet on June 25th to discuss government and possibility of more strikes.
  • June 27th is position day for July futures and June 28th is First Notice Day for July futures
  • USDA grain stocks and Planted acreage report comes out on June 28th at 11 am CDT
  • June 28th is month end and the end of the quarter.

 

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg