News From the Grain Floor 6/19/13

Good morning

“I would much rather be here today debating this point than trying to explain how we failed to prevent another 9/11″

Gen. Keith Alexander

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CDT with their US 2013 acreage estimates . Informa’s previous estimates are below.

·         US corn acreage estimated at 96.827 MA vs. USDA estimate of 97.3 MA

·         US bean acreage estimated at 78.286 MA vs. USDA estimate of 77.1 MA

·         US Spring wheat acreage (other than durum) estimated at 12.4 MA vs. USDA estimate of 12.7 MA

·         US Durum wheat acreage estimated at 1.901 MA vs. USDA estimate of 1.75 MA

·         US all cotton acreage estimated at 10.2 MA vs. USDA estimate of 10.0 MA

·         Rice acreage estimated at 2.6 MA unchanged from USDA estimate

Overnight closes

·         CN down 7 ¾ at 665 ½

·         CZ down 3 at 547 ½

·         SN unchanged at 1510 ¾

·         SX down 1 at 1288 ¾

·         WN down 2 ½ at 685

·         WU down 1 ¾ at 693

·         SMN down 1.80 at 450.00

·         SMZ down 1.50 at 378.40

·         BON up 24 at 4905

·         BOZ up 18 at 4776

·         RRN down 3.50 at 1625

Overnight volume

  • CN 10,004
  • CZ 15,060
  • SN 5,264
  • SX 6,780
  • WN 4,220
  • WU 3,274
  • SMN 4,062
  • SMZ 2,703
  • BON 6,257
  • BOZ 4,203
  • RRN 43

Opening calls

·         Beans steady lower

·         Corn 4-6 lower

·         Wheat 1-3 lower

·         Meal 1-2 lower

·         Bean oil 15-25 higher

·         Rice 2-4 lower

Crude and gold higher. Dollar, stock market, and silver lower.

Nikkei up 1.829%

Hang Seng down 1.126%

Shanghai Index down .624%

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday afternoon

·         Crude a draw of 4.286 MB

·         Gas a build of 918K

·         Distillates a draw of 617K

FOMC 2 day policy meeting concludes today. Feds to make rate announcement at 1 pm CDT. Ben Bernanke press conference today at 1:30 pm .

Palm oil up 4. Chinese grain markets lower

Indonesia Palm Oil Association

·         May palm oil exports at 1.82 MMT up 22% from April

·         Estimated 2013 palm oil output at 28.0 MMT

·         Estimated 2013 palm oil exports at 18.0 MMT

South Korea MFG bought 60K South American meal for October shipment

Japan has bought 1 cargo of US corn this week for July shipment

CNGOIC estimated China’s June bean imports at 6.9 MMT and estimated July bean imports at 6.0 MMT vs. 5.1 MMT in May

CNGOIC said China has bought 2.5 MMT of US corn this year for ‘13/14 delivery , USDA reported 1.35 MMT

USDA attaché in China estimated China’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 12.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

USDA attaché estimated China’s 2013 bean planting area at 6.8 MH unchanged from previous estimate

USDA attaché estimated China’s ‘12/13 bean imports at 59.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 63.0 MMT

USDA attaché estimated China’s ‘13/14 bean imports at 67.5 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 69.0 MMT

Outbreak of deadly piglet virus spreads to 13 US states – Reuters

UK based brokerage house London Commoditiy Brokers LTD is entering agriculture markets said the CEO

TALK of US importing Brazilian ethanol

From a Brazilian contact – Between June 1 – June 17th Brazil has shipped 4.31 MMT of beans, 776K tons of meal and pellets, 119K tons of corn , and 25K tons of edible oils

Argentine farmer strike continues. Today is the last day . Argentine markets are closed tomorrow and Friday for holiday

Russia sold 34,909 tons of intervention grain making the total since Oct 23rd 3,571,086

Ukraine Ag Min estimated ‘12/13 grain exports at 23.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 24.4 MMT

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine has harvested 300K tons of grain so far this season with an average yield of 2.3 TPH vs. 1.6 TPH a year ago

Mexico’s Ag Min estimated 2013 corn crop at above 20.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 22.45 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 21.35 MMT

Taiwan Flour Millers said they favor non-Oregon wheat offers in tender

Analysts said Asian Feedmillers to use corn as a substitute for wheat in the 4th quarter to save costs

Japan customs data showed Japan imported 2,435,044 tons of grain in May up 5.8% from a year ago – 1,012,387 tons from the US down 28% from a year ago

Japan customs data showed Japan imported 319,065 tons of beans in May up 8.6% from a year ago – 126,633 tons from the US down 14.7% from a year ago

India’s Food Minister said India to consider allowing an extra 2.0 MMT of wheat export at Friday’s meeting . India has already allowed 4.5 MMT of wheat exports

UK imported 255,785 tons of wheat in April – customs data

UK imported 2.38 MMT of wheat between July – April vs. 732,180 tons a year ago – customs data

Manitoba , Canada grain planting is nearly complete

Earlier this week Ag Canada estimated Canada’s all wheat production at 29.4 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

Ag Canada estimated ‘13/14 wheat ending stocks at 5.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.0 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 ending stocks estimate of 4.8 MMT

Thailand Rice Exporters Association estimated Thailand 2013 rice exports at 7.0 MMT and 2014 rice exports at 8.0 MMT . Previously they estimated 2013 rice exports at 6.0-6.5 MMT

Warmer and drier US weather.

227 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

·         24 out of Bunge Decatur IN

·         200 out of Cargill Ackley IA

·         3 out of South Dakota Soybean Processors Volga, SD

16 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

Yesterday on the close FI bought 10,000 Sept short dated corn 500/480 put spreads at 4 5/8. Sept short dated goes off the Dec futures but expires when the Sept options expire. Open interest in the CDFU 500 puts went up 10,010 yesterday total opened is 24,996 and open interest in the CDFU 480 puts went up 8,086 yesterday total opened is 12,973

Triple bottom at 1506 in July beans. 1506 was the low overnight

Moving Averages

·         SX 200 day 1291

·         CN 100 day 667 ½

·         CZ 100 day 551

·         BON 50 day 4901

·         BOZ 50 day 4817

July Options expire on Friday . Open interest

·         CN 650 calls 10,576 open- Puts 13,169 open

·         CN 660 calls 12,890 open – Puts 11,470 open

·         CN 670 calls 9,596 open – Puts 8,843 open

·         CN 680 calls 9,235 open – Puts 5,209 open

·         CN 690 calls 5,430 open – Puts 3,752 open

·         CN 700 Calls 13,996 open – Puts 4,929 open

·         SN 1480 calls 3,866 open – Puts 3,592 open

·         SN 1500 calls 8,040 open – Puts 8,869 open

·         SN 1510 calls 1,115 open – Puts 4,716 open

·         SN 1520 calls 2,501 open – Puts 2,285 open

·         SN 1540 calls 4,643 open – Puts 2,249 open

·         BON 48 calls 1,559 open – Puts 3,835 open

·         BON 49 calls 1,206 open – Puts 3,001 open

·         BON 49.5 calls 666 open – Puts 845 open

·         BON 50 calls 3,289 open – Puts 2,666 open

·         SMN 440 calls 1,299 open – Puts 996 open

·         SMN 450 calls 2,510 open – Puts 2,489 open

·         SMN 460 calls 1,203 open – Puts 344 open

·         WN 650 calls 1,285 open – Puts 4,273 open

·         WN 660 calls 0 open – Puts 1,241 open

·         WN 670 calls 466 open – Puts 1,990 open

·         WN 680 calls 1,331 open – Puts 2,773 open

·         WN 690 calls 1,665 open – Puts 1,683 open

·         WN 700 calls 6,048 open – Puts 7,388 Open

Open interest in futures as of yesterday’s close

·         CN 207,143 open , down 27,656

·         CU 327,122 open, up 5,327

·         CZ 519,027 open , up 17,890

·         Total corn 1,239,480 open, down 913

·         SN 144,703 open, down 9,724

·         SX 336,642 open, up 5,013

·         Total beans 622,391 open, up 686

·         SMN 66,394 open, down 5,479

·         SMZ 137,925 open, up 3,871

·         Total meal 315,676 open, up 3,094

·         BON 78,070 open, down 9,734

·         BOZ 148,201 open, up 1,973

·         Total bean oil 355,804 open , down 5,387

·         WN 94,274 open , down 5,937

·         WU 151,360 open, up 3,233

·         WZ 118,215 open, up 1,798

·         Total wheat 421,541 open, down 677

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US DOE #s come out today at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a draw of 500K
    • Gas a build of 750K
    • Distillates a build of 925K
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out today at 930 am CDT
  • Chinese and European economic data comes out tomorrow
  • Argentine markets closed for holiday June 20-21- Thursday and Friday
  • SGS and IAS will estimated Malaysia’s June 1-20 palm oil exports on Thursday expecting 926K tons up 15-16% from a month ago due to a pick-up of demand ahead of Ramadan
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • July options expire Friday June 21st
  • Brazilian port workers may strike on June 25th
  • Argentine farm leaders meet on June 25th to discuss government and possibility of more strikes.
  • June 27th is position day for July futures and June 28th is First Notice Day for July futures
  • USDA grain stocks and Planted acreage report comes out on June 28th at 11 am CDT

 

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg