News From the Grain Floor 6/18/13

Good morning

If you don’t know what the defect level is, how do you know when to get mad?
Philip B. Crosby

December corn and December bean oil is top step (spot month) today.


USDA announced 240K US new crop beans sold to China this morning

 

Overnight closes

·         SN up 6 at 1518 ½

·         SX up 3 ½ at 1289

·         CN down ¾ at 667 ¾

·         CZ down 1 ¾ at 536 ¾

·         WN up 3 ½ at 684

·         WU up 4 ¼ at 692

·         SMN up 4.60 at 453.70

·         SMZ up .80 at 377.60

·         BON up 14 at 4898

·         BOZ up 6 at 4795

·         RRN up 1.50 at 1634

Overnight volume

·         SN 6,005

·         SX 11,952

·         CN 9,006

·         CZ 8,826

·         WN 4,689

·         WU 3,597

·         SMN 2,787

·         SMZ 2,915

·         BON 5,596

·         BOZ 4,517

·         RRN 185

Opening calls

·         Beans 5-7 higher

·         Corn steady lower

·         Wheat 3-5 higher

·         Meal 2-3 higher

·         Bean oil 10-20 higher

·         Rice 1-2 higher

Dollar and stock market higher Crude and silver higher Dollar lower

US May CPI came out this morning at 730 am  CDT at .1% expecting .2%

UK May CPI at +2.7% expecting +2.6% and vs. +2.4% in April

Nikkei down .198%

Shanghai Index up .417%

Palm oil up 5 Chinese grain market higher

TALK from yesterday Oklahoma and Texas farmers may double crop beans after hard red wheat harvest.

TALK of 2-3 million corn acres being loss from USDA estimate of 97.3 MA

Taiwan TSC canceled tender for 12K US beans and 23K US corn hoping prices will decline further

South Korea NOFI bought 58K optional origin corn possibly from the Black Sea for the first time for November shipment

South Korea NOFI bought 68K optional origin corn for October shipment

South Korea NOFI bought 4K feed barley

Egypt Meditrade seeks 30K sunflower oil for July shipment

India MMTC seeks 21 RBD palm oil and 4K CPO from Indonesia or Malaysia for July shipment

South Korea has bought 1.3 MMT of corn and wheat over the past 6 weeks

Japan sees 152,231 tons of milling wheat – excluding US white wheat for the 4th week Breakdown is July / Sept shipment

·         29,450 tons HRW US wheat

·         35,453 tons of DNS US Wheat

·         60,882 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat

·         26,446 tons of Australian wheat

Russia sold 34,290 tons of intervention grain making the total sold since the program started on 10/23/12 equal 3,536,177 tons

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine has started harvesting. They have harvest 177,800 MMT of grain on 79,200 hectares as of 6/17/13 average yield is 2.25 TPH vs. 1.64 TPH a year ago

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine ‘13/14 grain crop estimated at 53-54 MMT

17 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon 6 out of South Dakota Soybean Processors Volga SD and 11 out of Cargill Buffalo IA

16 Rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

Corn

  • As many analysts expected there was no corn planting progress on this report due to the date.
    • Iowa  corn planting is only 94% complete leaving 850,000 acres
    • Illinois corn planting is 99% complete leaving 120,000 acres
    • North Dakota corn planting is 94% complete leaving 240,000 acres
    • Minnesota corn planting is 94% complete leaving 540,000 acres
    • Missouri corn planting is 98% complete leaving 7,000 acres
    • Wisconsin 87% corn planting complete leaving 560,000 acres  
  • Condition 64% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago and vs. 63% a year ago  (expecting a 1-3% increase from a week ago )
  • Emerged 92% vs. 85% a week ago and vs. 97% five year average

 

Beans

  • Planting 85% vs. 71% a week ago and vs. 91% 5 year average (expecting 85-90% complete)
  • Emerged 66% vs. 48% a week ago and vs. 80% 5 year average
  • Condition 64% good to excellent vs. 56% a year ago (expecting 60-65% good to excellent)

 

Spring Wheat

  • Planting 92% vs. 87% a week ago and vs. 97% 5 year average
  • Emerged 84% vs. 71% a week ago and vs. 94% 5 year average
  • Condition 68% good to excellent vs. 62% a week ago and vs. 76% a year ago

 

Winter Wheat

  • Condition 31% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 54% a year ago
  • Headed 89% vs. 82% a week ago and vs. 91% 5 year average
  • Harvested 11% vs. 5% a week ago and vs. 25% 5 year average

 

Rice

  • Condition 68% good to excellent vs. 62% a week ago and vs. 68% a year ago
  • Emerged 98% vs. 94% a week ago and vs. 96% 5 year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 42% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 53% a year ago
  • Planted 95% vs. 88% a week ago and vs. 97% 5 year average
  • Squaring 10% vs. 6% a week ago and vs. 19% 5 year average

Moving average

·         CN 100 day 667 ¾

·         CZ 50 day 541 ¼

·         SX 200 day 1291 ½

·         BON 50 day 4903

·         BOZ 50 day 4822

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

·         CN 235,044 open, down 25,150

·         CU 321,705 open, up 5,351

·         CZ 501,084 open, up 6,187

·         Total corn 1,240,473 open, down 10,916

·         SN 154,364 open, down 7,047

·         SX 331,813 open, up 6,693

·         Total beans 621,883 open, up 5,451

·         SMN 72,047 open, down 2,383

·         SMZ 134,082 open, up 3,444

·         Total meal 312,828 open, up 2,950

·         BON 87,901 open, down 7,007

·         BOZ 146,601 open, up 1,927.

·         Total bean oil 361,678 open, down 201

·         WN 100,747 open, down 11,110

·         WU 148,319 open, up 6,285

·         Total wheat 422,548 open , down 6,774

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • Weekly US DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a draw of 500K
    • Gas a build of 500K
    • Distillates a build of 925K
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • FOMC announcement tomorrow
  • Hearing Informa will come out tomorrow at 1030 am CDT with US acreage estimates
  • Chinese and European economic data comes out on Thursday
  • Argentine markets closed for holiday June 20-21- Thursday and Friday
  • SGS and IAS will estimated Malaysia’s June 1-20 palm oil exports on Thursday
  • July options expire Friday June 21st
  • Brazilian port workers may strike on June 25th
  • Argentine farm leaders meet on June 25th to discuss government and possibility of more strikes.
  • June 27th is position day for July futures and June 28th is First Notice Day for July futures
  • USDA grain stocks and Planted acreage report comes out on June 28th at 11 am CDT

 

Kate Rosenberg

TCD-Daily