News From the Grain Floor 6/17/13

Good morning

“First they ignore you. Then they ridicule you. And then they attack you and want to burn you. And then they build monuments to you.”

Nicholas Klein

November beans and December oats are top step (spot month) this morning.

 

NOPA May crush report comes out today at 11 am CDT . See below for estimates.

 

Overnight closes

·         SN down 13 at 1503 ½

·         SX down 13 ¾ at 1284 ½

·         CN down 2 at 653

·         CZ down 5 ¾ at 527 ¼

·         WN down 5 at 675 ¾

·         WU down 5 at 683 ¾

·         SMN down .30 at 450.40

·         SMZ down 7.50 at 376.00

·         BON up 22 at 4870

·         BOZ up 11 at 4773

·         RRN up 7.50 at 1658

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 10,709
  • SX 19,927
  • CN 7,147
  • CZ 12,132
  • WN 4,259
  • WU 3,390
  • SMN 4,007
  • SMZ 4,763
  • BON 6,750
  • BOZ 5,775
  • RRN 45

Opening calls

·         Beans 10-15 lower

·         Corn 3-5 lower

·         Wheat 4-6 lower

·         Meal 2-3 lower

·         Bean oil 15-25 higher

·         Rice 6-8 higher

Dollar, crude oil and stock market higher.  Gold and silver lower.

Nikkei up 2.732%

Hang Seng up 1.224%

Shanghai Index down .250%

Most world stock markets higher

G8 summit today in Northern Ireland.

Palm oil up 25. Chinese grain markets lower except for oils were higher

Malaysia government keeps CPO export tax unchanged at 4.5% in July

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s June 1-15th palm oil exports at 707,148 tons up 15.7% from a month ago

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s June 1-15th palm oil exports at 709,860 tons up 18.5% from a month ago

USDA said recent appearance of GM wheat found in Oregon seems to be an isolated incident

Japan and South Korea are still banning US white wheat

Argentine farmers on strike through Wednesday.

President of Confederation Rural Argentina said Argentina farm battle may continue if government does not respond . Farmers to meet June 25th

Europe bought 80K Indian soymeal for June/July shipment

Indonesia bought 70K Australian wheat for August shipment

Based on a Bloomberg survey of 14 China based crushers estimated ‘13/14 China bean imports at 63.0 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 69.0 MMT

Based on a Bloomberg survey of 14 China based crushers estimated ‘12/13 China bean imports at 58.0 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 59.0 MMT . ‘12/13 imports may fall for the first time in 10 years

TALK that many parts of Australia will run out of wheat by August .  Australian wheat stocks estimated at 2-3 MMT when next harvest starts in October vs. 8.0 MMT a year ago

Analysts said India exported 486K tons of meal to Europe in ‘12/13 up 27% from a year ago

South Korea NOFI seeks 140K optional origin corn for Oct/Nov shipment , Black Sea origin corn is allowed for the first time in this tender

South Korea NOFI seeks 55K optional origin feed wheat for October shipment – Excluded US origin wheat

South Korea NOFI seeks 6K optional origin feed barley for October shipment

Israel bought 9K feed barley Black Sea origin for July shipment

Japan’s Aid Agency seeks unspecified volume of wheat for donation to Burundi

Expecting Asian grain demand to rise this week due to falling prices

Egypt Ag Min said Egypt has bought 3.96 MMT of local wheat so far this year

Vietnam Food Association (VFA) said Vietnam exported 180,853 tons of rice between June 1-13th

VFA estimated Vietnam’s June rice exports at 750K tons

VFA estimated Vietnam’s 2nd quarter rice exports at 2.1 MMT vs. 1.57 MMT in the 1st quarter

Midwest weather mostly dry and warmer this week with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms

Monsoon rains cover India a month earlier than normal increasing crop hopes

52 bean oil receipts canceled Friday afternoon 39 out of Cargill Buffalo IA and 13 out of South Dakota Soybean Processors Volga SD

37 rice receipts canceled Friday afternoon

Argentine Ag Min weekly report from Friday

·         Argentine bean harvest is 99% complete vs. 96% a year ago

·         Argentine corn harvest is 80% complete vs. 69% a year ago

·         Estimated Argentine wheat planting area at 4.0 MH vs. 3.16 MH a year ago

Moving averages

·         SX 200 day 1291 ¾

·         BON 50 day 4905

·         BOZ 50 day 4825

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large Spec positions as of 6/11/13 futures and options combined.

·         Wheat short 47,031

·         KC Wheat short 13,064

·         Corn long 8,287

·         Beans long 116,571

·         Meal long 51,244

·         Bean oil short 61,594

Open interest as of Friday’s close

·         CN 259,473 open, down 19,151

·         CU 316,594 open, up 11,229

·         CZ 495,411 open, up 4,799

·         Total corn 1,251,403 open, down 1,583

·         SN 162,218 open, down 11,232

·         SX 325,013 open, up 8,872

·         Total beans 617,612 open, down 319

·         SMN 74,587 open, down 7,098

·         SMZ 130,598 open, up 4,179

·         Total meal 310,025 open, down 1,042

·         BON 94,921 open, down 9,509

·         BOZ 144,675 open, up 3,949

·         Total bean oil 361,924 open, down 5,062

·         WN 109,732 open, down 14,439

·         WU 142,096 open, up 4,937

·         WZ 119,342 open, up 3,997

·         Total wheat 427,980 open, down 5,267

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CDT
  • NOPA comes out today at 11 am CDT with their May crush report expecting

o   From Reuters-

§  Crush average estimate. 118.1 MB, range of estimates are 110-126 MB

§  Bean oil stocks average estimate 2.638 billion pounds, range of estimates are 2.471 B – 2.6 B

§  Meal exports – no estimate was given

o   From Dow Jones –

§  Crush average estimate 117.6 MB, range of estimates are 114.0-124.0

§  Bean oil stocks average estimate 2.522 B pounds , range of estimates are 2.471-2.680 B

§  Meal exports estimated about 506,000 tons

o   NOPA April crush was 120.1 MB and May 2012 crush 138.266 MB

o   NOPA April bean oil stocks was 2.638 B and May 2012 bean oil stocks were 2.312 B pounds

o   NOPA April meal exports were 506,429 tons

  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CDT
    • Expecting US bean planting 85-90% complete vs. 71% a week ago and vs. average of about 92%
    • Expecting to see first bean conditions . Last year the bean crop was 65% good to excellent , looking for 60-65% good to excellent today.
    • Expecting US corn planting about 98% complete
    • Expecting US corn good/excellent condition to increase by 2-3% from a week ago of 63% good to excellent
  • December corn top step tonight/tomorrow
  • December bean oil top step tonight/tomorrow
  • UK and US economic data comes out tomorrow
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting tomorrow and Wednesday.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT
  • FOMC announcement on Wednesday
  • Chinese and European economic data comes out on Thursday
  • Argentine markets closed for holiday June 20-21- Thursday and Friday
  • July options expire Friday June 21st
  • Expecting Informa to come out this week with US acreage estimates
  • Brazilian port workers may strike on June 25th
  • Argentine farm leaders meet on June 25th to discuss government and possibility of more strikes.
  • June 27th is position day for July futures and June 28th is First Notice Day for July futures
  • USDA grain stocks and Planted acreage report comes out on June 28th at 11 am CDT

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg