News From the Grain Floor 6/13/13

Good morning

The LORD maketh poor, and maketh rich: he bringeth low, and lifteth up.

I Samuel 2:7

Overnight closes

·         SN down 9 at 1531 ¾

·         SX down 5 ¾ at 1308 ½

·         CN down a ½ at 650 ¼

·         CZ down ¾ at 536 ¾

·         WN down 1 ¼ at 681 ¾

·         WU unchanged at 691

·         SMN down 1.60 at 459.80

·         BON up 15 at 4826

·         RRN down 3.50 at 1625

Overnight volume

·         SN 8,511

·         SX 11,598

·         CN 6,037

·         CZ 6,790

·         WN 4,408

·         WU 3,864

·         SMN 3,797

·         BON 7,977

·         RRN 43

Opening calls

·         Beans 7-10 lower

·         Corn 1-2 lower

·         Wheat 1-2 lower

·         Meal 1-2 lower

·         Bean oil 10-20 higher

·         Rice 2-4 lower

Dollar and stock market higher. Crude, gold, and silver lower

Nikkei down 6.351%

Hang Seng down 2.190%

Shanghai Index down 2.744%

Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning at – 12K to 334K expecting 350K

Palm oil down 28. Chinese grain markets lower beans, corn, and meal, higher oils

India bought 12K palm oil from Indonesia or Malaysia for July shipment

Egypt FIHC bought 30K sunflower oil

South Korea bought 110K South American corn for Sept/Oct shipment

Taiwan BSPA-T bought 60K Brazilian beans for August / Sept shipment

Japan bought 157,439 tons of milling wheat for July/September shipment . Breakdown

  • 29,481 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 64,581 tons of Dark northern US wheat
  • 41,877 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat
  • 21,500 tons of Australian white wheat

Taiwan seeks 85,500 tons of US wheat for July/August shipment Breakdown

·         10,150 western white

·         28,500 dark northern spring

·         9,600 HRW wheat

Today is the last day of the Goldman Sachs roll.

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning

·         Wheat ‘13/14 427,200 (expecting 400-650K)

·         Corn ‘12/13 81,500 ‘13/14 68,000 (expecting 200-400K)

·         Beans ‘12/13 33,500 ‘13/14 447,100 (expecting 300-700K)

·         Meal ‘12/13 97,700 ‘13/14 47,100 (expecting 125-300K)

·         Bean oil ‘12/13 13,200 (expecting 10-20K)

Export highlights

·         Wheat – Net sales for the 2013/2014 marketing year, which began June 1, totaled 427,200 metric tons. Increases reported for Brazil (130,700 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,000 MT), Japan (94,700 MT), Peru (44,000 MT), Colombia (24,700 MT), and the Philippines (24,000 MT), were partially offset by decreases for the Dominican Republic (2,000 MT). A total of 1,185,500 metric tons in sales were carried over from the 2012/2013 marketing year, which ended May 31. Exports for the period May 31 of 254,900 MT brought accumulated exports to 26,348,100 MT, unchanged from the prior year’s total of 26,627,300 MT. The primary destinations were the Philippines (98,000 MT), Brazil (58,400 MT), Peru (32,900 MT), Nigeria (30,600 MT), and Algeria (26,300 MT). Exports for June 1-6 totaled 376,100 MT, with Brazil (89,200 MT), Nigeria (57,800 MT), China (57,800 MT), Mexico (32,700 MT), and South Korea (26,700 MT) being the main destinations.

·         Corn – Net sales of 81,500 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Japan (56,700 MT, including 31,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,500 MT), Venezuela (17,500 MT, including 10,500 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (16,800 MT), and Jamaica (8,600 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (36,000 MT) and Panama (4,000 MT). Net sales of 68,000 MT for 2013/2014 were for Mexico (44,600 MT), Japan (18,200 MT), China (7,800 MT), Taiwan (4,000 MT) and South Korea (600 MT). Decreases were reported for Trinidad (7,200 MT). Exports of 232,800 MT were down 35 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (80,800 MT), Mexico (78,000 MT), Venezuela (51,500 MT), and Trinidad (7,700 MT).

·         Beans – Net sales of 33,500 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Japan (29,100 MT, including 18,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,000 MT), Mexico (9,600 MT), Vietnam (7,000 MT), Taiwan (6,400 MT), and Israel (2,200 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (18,000 MT) and Indonesia (5,500 MT). Net sales of 447,100 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for China (407,200 MT) and Mexico (32,800 MT). Decreases were reported for Taiwan (4,000 MT). Exports of 128,800 MT were up 5 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (43,700 MT), Mexico (40,600 MT), Israel (11,700 MT), Indonesia (8,800 MT), and Vietnam (8,200 MT).

·         Meal – Net sales of 97,700 MT for 2012/2013 were down 27 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Venezuela (59,600 MT, including 20,600 MT switched from unknown destinations), Ecuador (28,000 MT), Mexico (18,800 MT), El Salvador (11,500 MT, including 5,500 MT switched from Guatemala and 5,400 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Israel (9,100 MT, including 8,500 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (36,500 MT), Colombia (25,000 MT), and Bangladesh (1,100 MT). Net sales of 47,100 MT for 2013/2014 were for the Philippines (46,400 MT) and Canada (700 MT). Exports of 153,100 MT were up 38 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Ecuador (31,600 MT), Mexico (22,400 MT), Venezuela (20,600 MT), Canada (14,800 MT), El Salvador (13,100 MT), and Israel (9,100 MT).

·         Bean oil – Net sales of 13,200 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Canada (14,000 MT) and Nicaragua (1,000 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Mexico (1,900 MT). Exports of 12,300 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and 41 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (10,000 MT), Canada (1,200 MT), and Nicaragua (1,000 MT).

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CDT expecting +95 B
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT
  • Intertek Agri Services come out on Saturday with their June 1-15th Malaysian palm oil export estimates
  • SGS comes out on Monday with their June 1-15th Malaysian palm oil export estimates
  • NOPA comes out Monday June 17th at 11 am CDT with their May crush report
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting June 18-19
  • Argentine markets closed for holiday June 20-21
  • July options expire Friday June 21st
  • Brazilian port workers may strike on June 25th
  • USDA grain stocks and Planted acreage report comes out on June 28th at 11 am CDT

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg