News from the grain floor 6/12/13

Good morning

“Allowing the U.S. government to intimidate its people with threats of retaliation for revealing wrongdoing is contrary to the public interest.”

Edward Snowden

USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out today at 11 am CDT. See below for estimates for the report. I will email the report out as quickly as possible.  Some analysts are expecting the USDA to make changes to the corn and bean acreage today. USDA does not usually change acreage in this report. Analysts are expecting USDA to lower corn acreage by 1.5 MA and raise bean acreage by 700,000 acres.

 

Overnight closes

·         SN up 2 ½ at 1543

·         SX down 3 ½ at 1323 ½

·         CN down 2 at 657 ½

·         CZ down 3 at 547 ¾

·         WN down 4 ¾ at 692

·         WU down 6 ¼ at 698 ¾

·         SMN up 4.10 at 467.50

·         BON up 3 at 4807

·         RRN up .5 at 1614.50

Overnight volume

·         SN 9,193

·         SX 8,535

·         CN 6,522

·         CZ 5,926

·         WN 5,836

·         WU 4,536

·         SMN 4,136

·         BON 5,676

·         RRN 211

Crude, gold, silver, stock market, and dollar are all higher this  morning

Nikkei down 1.458%

Hang Seng down 1.205%

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

·         Crude a build of 8.97 MB expecting a draw of 700K

·         Gas a build of 1.04 MB expecting a build of 1.5 MB

·         Distillates a build of 199K expecting a build of 600K

EIA estimated China’s 2013 oil use growth at +4.1% vs. previous forecast of +4.4%

EIA estimated US 2013 oil use growth at 12.2% vs. previous forecast of 14.2%

EIA said OPEC May oil output at 30.48 MB per day highest since September and vs. 30.23 MMT in April

Palm oil down 5

Chinese markets closed today. Trading resumes tomorrow.

South Korea FLC bought 62K optional origin corn for October shipment

Bangladesh bought 50K Indian wheat

Japan Farm Minister said yesterday Japan is seeking 120K feed wheat excluding US supplies shipped from the Pacific Northwest

South Korea seeks 26,610 tons of optional origin rice for Oct/Dec shipment

Goldman Sachs said it expects significant downside potential during the second half of 2013 to agricultural markets unless extreme weather occurs.

Argentine farmers to suspend grain and livestock sales to protest government policies. Strike will begin on Saturday 6/15/13 and end on Wednesday 6/19/13. Comment from a South American source “ I don’t think the strike has a very strong impact because next week Argentina has 2 holidays on June 20th and 21st . Specifically the strike is only 3 working days.”

Farm Coop estimated German’s 2013 wheat crop at 24.01 MMT vs. previous estimate of 23.76 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 22.38

Farm Coop estimated German winter rapeseed crop at 5.42 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.35 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 4.80 MMT

Farm Coop estimated German all grain crop at 46.23 MMT vs. previous estimate of 45.50 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 45.17 MMT

Farm Coop estimated German winter barley crop at 8.21 MMT vs. 7.07 MMT a year ago

Farm Coop estimated German spring barley crop at 1.87 MMT vs. 3.31 MMT a year ago

Farm Coop estimated German corn crop at 4.72 MMT vs. 5.49 MMT a year ago

Egypt supplies minister said total wheat stocks are at 3.915 MMT enough supply to last until November 16th

Britain’s National Farmers Union said Britain’s 2013 wheat output expected to fall 29% from 2012

Scientists say new study shows pig health hurt by GMO feed. –Reuters

Today is the fourth day of the Goldman Sachs roll . Roll ends tomorrow.

Scattered showers in Midwest through Monday

Germany had second wettest May in 132 years

Okato Shoji Co. (Tokyo based commodity brokerage group) said poor US beans and delayed planting could push prices up to $16.

July meal made a new contract high overnight of 467.50, yesterday’s contract high was 466.10 and the old contract high made on September 14th was 465.70

June 5th high in July beans was 1549. 1549 was the high overnight

June 10th low in July wheat was 680 ½  and  June 4th high was 713 ¼ . The high overnight was 695 the low was 691.

European wheat futures near one year low on good crop outlook

19 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

·         7 out of South Dakota Soybean Processors

·         12 out of Cargill Buffalo IA

16 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

ABARE ‘13/14 Australian crop estimates came out this morning

·         Wheat crop estimated at 25.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 24.9 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 22.1 MMT

·         Wheat exports estimated at 19.6 MMT vs. 20.1 MMT a year ago

·         Wheat planted area estimated at 13.7 MH vs. previous estimate of 13.8 MH and up 3% from a year ago

·         Canola output estimated at 3.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.9 MMT and down 17% from a year ago

·         Barley output estimated at 7.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 7.8 MMT and up 10% from a year ago

·         Cotton production estimated at 995K tons vs. previous estimate of 905K tons

·         Western Australian wheat crop estimated at 8.8 MMT up 29% from a year ago

FranceAgriMer ‘12/13 French crop estimates

·         Soft wheat ending stocks estimated at 2.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.5 MMT and up 1.8% from a year ago

·         Barley ending stocks estimated at 1.34 MMT vs. previous estimate of 1.56 MMT and down 39.6% from a year ago

·         Barley exports estimated at 6.33 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.21 MMT

·         Soft wheat exports estimated at 17.27 MMT vs. 16.15 MMT a year ago and vs. previous estimate of 17.05 MMT

·         Feed use estimated at 4.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.5 MMT

·         Durum exports estimated at 1.55 MMT vs. previous estimate of 1.45 MMT

·         Durum ending stocks estimated at 170K tons vs. previous estimate of 201K tons

·         Corn ending stocks estimated at 1.34 MMT vs. previous estimate of 1.56 MMT

Moving averages

·         CN 100 day 670 ¼

·         CN 50 day 644 ¼

·         CZ 100 day 553 ½

·         CZ 50 day 541 ½

·         WN 50 day 703 ½

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

·         CN 309,305 open, down 16,726

·         CU 253,983 open, up 21,841

·         CZ 481,531 open, up 4,660

·         Total corn 1,218,046 open, up 12,711

·         SN 199,150 open, down 11,904

·         SX 289,239 open, up 12,726

·         Total beans 612,872 open, up 5,679

·         SMN 101,341 open, down 7,327

·         SMZ 108,121 open, up 10,503

·         Total meal 305,121 open. Up 8,583

·         BON 120,885 open, down 11,894

·         BOZ 127,396 open, up 6,143

·         Total bean oil 367,930 open, down 3,939

·         WN 140,772 open, down 17,153

·         WU 111,963 open, up 9,053

·         WZ 110,260 open, up 630

·         Total wheat 419,089 open, down 7,252

Estimates For Wednesday USDA supply and demand, crop production report. Report comes out at 11 am CDT – From Dow Jones

 

2013 US Wheat Production Estimates

  • All wheat production (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.026 BB, range of estimates are 1.872-2.082 BB, and 2012 production was 2.269 BB
  • All winter wheat production (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.457 BB, range of estimates are 1.401-1.503 BB, and 2012 production was 1.645 BB
  • Hard red winter wheat production (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate .743 BB, range of estimates are .676-.789 BB, and 2012 production was 1.004 BB
  • Soft red winter wheat production (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate .506 BB, range of estimates are .492-.517 BB, and 2012 production was .420 BB
  • White winter wheat production (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate .208 BB, range of estimates are .200-.217 BB, and 2012 production was .222 BB

 

‘12/13 US Grain and Bean Carryout Estimates

  • Corn (16 analysts surveyed) average estimate .748 BB, range of estimates are .700-.789 BB , May USDA estimate was .759 BB, and ‘11/12 US carryout was .989 BB
  • Beans (16 analysts surveyed) average estimate .125 BB, range of estimates are .119-.130 BB, May USDA estimate was .125 BB, and ‘11/12 US carryout was .169 BB
  • Wheat (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate .734 BB, range of estimates are .725-.751 BB , May USDA estimate was .731 BB, and ‘11/12 US carryout was .743 BB

‘13/14 US Grain and Bean Carryout Estimates

  • Corn (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.758 BB, range of estimates are 1.274-1.994 BB, and May USDA estimate was 2.004 BB
  • Beans (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate .273 BB, range of estimates are .185-.339 , and May USDA estimate was .265 BB
  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate .634 BB, range of estimates .501-.686 BB, and May USDA estimate was .670 BB

‘12/13 World Grain and Bean Carryout Estimates

·         Corn (8 analysts surveyed) average estimate 125.7 MMT , range of estimates are 124.5-128.2 MMT , May USDA estimate was 125.4 MMT, and ‘11/12 carryout was 132.2 MMT

·         Beans (9 analysts surveyed) average estimate 62.0 MMT, range of estimates are 60.5-63.0 MMT, May USDA estimate was 62.5 MMT, and ‘11/12 carryout was 54.7 MMT

·         Wheat (7 analysts surveyed) average estimate 180.4 MMT , range of estimates 179.8-181.6 MMT , May USDA estimate was 180.2 MMT , and ‘11/12 carryout was 199.5 MMT

 

‘13/14 World Grain and Bean Carryout Estimates

  • Corn (8 analysts surveyed) average estimate 150.5 MMT, range of estimates 143.9-155.2 MMT, and May USDA estimate was 154.6 MMT
  • Beans (9 analysts surveyed) average estimate 74.2 MMT, range of estimates are 68.2-76.0 MMT , and May USDA estimate was 75.0 MMT
  • Wheat (8 analysts surveyed) average estimate 185.5 MMT, range of estimates are 182.1-187.5 MMT, and May USDA estimate was 186.4 MMT

 

‘12/13 Argentina and Brazil Corn and Bean Production Estimates

  • Argentina’s corn production (9 analysts surveyed) average estimate 25.8 MMT, range of estimates 25.0-26.5 MMT, May USDA estimate was 26.5 MMT , and ‘11/12 production was 21.0 MMT
  • Argentina’s bean production (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 51.5 MMT, range of estimates are 49.0-54.0, May USDA estimate was 51.0 MMT , and ‘11/12 production was 40.1 MMT
  • Brazil’s corn production (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 75.7 MMT, range of estimates are 73.0-78.5 MMT, May USDA estimate was 76.0 MMT, and ‘11/12 production was 73.0 MMT
  • Brazil’s bean production (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 83.3 MMT, range of estimates are 81.5-85.0 MMT, May USDA estimate was 83.5 MMT, and ‘11/12 production was 66.5 MMT

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE #s comes out today at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude draw of 1.5 MB
    • Gas build of 500K
    • Distillates build of 1.5  MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CDT
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand  report comes out today at 11 am CDT
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Intertek Agri Services come out on Saturday with their June 1-15th Malaysian palm oil export estimates
  • SGS comes out on Monday with their June 1-15th Malaysian palm oil export estimates
  • NOPA comes out Monday June 17th at 11 am CDT with their May crush report
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting June 18-19
  • Argentine markets closed for holiday June 20-21
  • July options expire Friday June 21st
  • Brazilian port workers may strike on June 25th
  • USDA grain stocks and Planted acreage report comes out on June 28th at 11 am CDT

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg