News From the Grain Floor 6/11/13

 

Good morning

All my life I’ve had one dream, to achieve my many goals.

Homer Simpson

Overnight closes

·         SN up 9 ¾ at 1521 ½

·         SX up 1 ¼ at 1320 ¼

·         CN up 1 ½ at 651 ½

·         CZ up a ½ at 546 ½

·         WN down 1 at 688 ¾

·         SMN up 3.60 at 451.90

·         BON up 22 at 4829

·         RRN up 10 at 1610

Overnight volume

  • SN 9,232
  • SX 9,178
  • CN 6,436
  • CZ 8,119
  • WN 4,844
  • SMN 4,321
  • BON 5,955
  • RRN 245

Opening calls

·         Beans 8-10 higher

·         Corn 1-2 higher

·         Wheat 1-2 lower

·         Meal 2-4 higher

·         Bean oil 20-30 higher

·         Rice 9-11 higher

Dollar, stock market, crude, gold, and silver are all lower this morning.

Nikkei up 5.021%

Hang Seng up .187%

China markets are closed today and tomorrow. Trading resumes on Thursday.

BOJ keeps policy unchanged

Hwang DBS Vickers expects Malaysia’s June palm oil output to reach 1.59 MMT vs. 1.384 MMT in May

Hwang DBS Vickers estimated Malaysia’s June palm oil stocks at 1.83 MMT vs. 1.82 MMT in May , and expects palm oil stocks to reach 2.14 MMT in December.

Analysts expect palm oil demand to pick up ahead of Ramadan which begins in July

CNGOIC estimated China’s 2013 corn, rice , and wheat crop at 542.5 MMT up 1.8% from a year ago including 214 MMT of corn

CNGOIC said China’s soybean consumption seed gaining 3% annually

South Korea MFG bought 134,000 tons of feed corn optional origin for October shipment

South Korea has bought over 1.0 MMT of corn and wheat over the past 5 weeks

Thailand bought 55K feed wheat Black Sea origin for August / September shipment

Japan seeks 300 food wheat and 500 food barley via SBS tender for August shipment

Japan seeks 157,439 tons of milling wheat for July/September shipment . Breakdown

·         29,481 tons of HRW US wheat

·         64,581 tons of Dark northern US wheat

·         41,877 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat

·         21,500 tons of Australian white wheat

Japan suspends feed wheat imports from the Pacific Northwest due to GM concerns

Hearing Argentine farmers may begin week long strike on Sunday, June 16th

Ukraine attaché estimated 2013 corn planting area at 4.8 MH up 1.6% from a year ago

Analysts expect Ukraine grain harvesting to start 7-10 days earlier than a year ago due to hot weather in the Ukraine

Based on a Bloomberg survey of 5 analysts estimated India’s May palm oil imports at 750K tons up 9.3% from a year ago , estimated total cooking oil imports at 910K tons up 1.5% from a year ago , estimated June palm oil imports at 725K tons, and estimated July palm oil imports at 725K tons

India’s attaché estimated India’s ‘13/14 wheat exports at 5.0 MMT down 8% from ‘12/13

India’s attaché said seeing yields in northern India 8-10% lower than a year ago

India’s attaché estimated India’s ‘12/13 corn exports at 4.8 MMT (record)

India’s attaché estimated India’s ‘13/14 corn exports at 3.5 MMT

India’s attaché said May 1st government wheat stocks were at 42.7 MMT up 12% from a year ago

India’s attaché estimated ‘13/14 India’s wheat crop at 87.0 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 92.0 MMT

Egypt’s Minister of Supplies said Egypt has bought 3.5 MMT of domestic wheat so far this season for stocks,

Egypt’s Minister of Supplies said Egypt has enough wheat supply to last until December 1st

French Farm Ministry estimated 2013 winter rapeseed crop at 4.5 MMT down 17.2% from a year ago

French Farm Ministry estimated 2013 winter barley crop at 7.2 MMT up 6.2% from a year ago

Pakistan  Finance Ministry estimated ‘12/13 wheat crop at 24.231 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 23.3 MMT

Manitoba , Canada crop planting is 94% complete

Today is the third day of the Goldman Sachs roll. Roll ends on Thursday.

Goldman Sachs recommends closing short July 2013 CBOT soybean crush future position. They recommended going short on April 10th . GS said the reason they recommended closing the position is due to expectations of US bean imports and South American meal exports rising. GS expecting USDA to show a larger than expected ‘12/13 bean crop . On April 10th July crush was valued at 47 cents and currently July crush is valued at 3 cents

27 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon .

·         10 out of Cargill Buffalo IA

·         17 out of South Dakota Soybean Processors Volga SD

Warmer drier weather in the US Plains

Better crop weather in the Midwest, scattered rains still remain in forecast

Nov bean 200 day moving average is 1292 ¼

Dec corn 50 day moving average is 541 ¼

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Planted 95% complete (as expected) vs. 91% a week ago and vs. 98% 5 year average
    • Iowa corn planting is 92% complete  vs. 88% a week ago – Meaning there is still 1.14 MA of corn still unplanted
    • Illinois corn planting is 96% complete vs. 91% a week ago  
  • Emerged 85% vs. 74% a week ago and vs. 92% 5 year average
  • Condition 63% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 66% a year ago
  • Condition 8% poor to very poor up 1% from a week ago

Beans

  • Planted 71% complete (expecting 70-75% complete) vs. 57% a week ago and vs. 84% 5 year average – slowest in 17 years
    • Iowa bean planting is 60% complete vs. 44% a week ago and vs. 95% average
    • Illinois bean planting 62% complete vs. 49% a week ago and vs. 80% average
  • Emerged 48% vs. 31% a week ago and vs. 67% 5 year average

Spring wheat

  • Planted 87% complete (expecting 81-84%) vs. 80% a week ago and vs. 96% 5 year average
  • Emerged 71% vs. 61% a week ago and vs. 89% 5 year average
  • Condition 62% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago and vs. 75% a year ago

Winter wheat

  • Headed 82% vs. 73% a week ago and vs. 86% 5 year average
  • Harvested 5% vs. 37% a year ago and vs. 16% 5 year average
  • Condition 31% good to excellent down 1% a week ago and vs. 53% a year ago
  • Condition 42% poor to very poor vs. 43% a week ago

Rice

  • Emerged 94% vs. 88% a week ago and vs. 93% 5 year average
  • Condition 62% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago and vs. 69% a year ago

Cotton

  • Planted 88% vs. 82% a week ago and vs. 92% 5 year average
  • Squaring 6% vs. 4% a week ago and vs. 11% 5 year average
  • Condition 42% good to excellent vs. 51% a year ago

Oats condition 56% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 73% a year ago

Oats planting is 96% complete up 2% from a week ago and vs. 99% average

Sorghum planting is 69% complete vs. 52% a week ago and vs. 72% average

Barley condition is 63% good to excellent down 3% from a week ago and down 1% from a year ago

Barley planting is 88% complete up 5% week ago vs. 100% year ago and vs. 96% 5 year average

Sunflower planting is 29% complete vs. 15% a week ago and vs. 61% average

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

·         CN 329,829 open, down 26,788

·         CU 232,224 open, up 19,205

·         CZ 477,001 open, up 8,998

·         Total corn 1,209,333 open, up 4,597

·         SN 213,547 open, down 14,599

·         SX 276,693 open, up 11,779

·         Total beans 609,961 open, down 458

·         SMN 108,870 open, down 8,349

·         SMZ 97,646 open, up 8,995

·         Total meal 296,805 open, up 2,463

·         BON 132,853 open, down 7,647

·         BOZ 121,265 open, up 6,917

·         Total bean oil 371,983 open, up 4,247

·         WN 158,496 open, down 6,724

·         WU 102,962 open, up 8,670

·         WZ 109,670 open, up 276

·         Total wheat 427,041 open, up 4,295

Estimates For Wednesday USDA supply and demand, crop production report. Report comes out at 11 am CDT – From Dow Jones

 

2013 US Wheat Production Estimates

  • All wheat production (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.026 BB, range of estimates are 1.872-2.082 BB, and 2012 production was 2.269 BB
  • All winter wheat production (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.457 BB, range of estimates are 1.401-1.503 BB, and 2012 production was 1.645 BB
  • Hard red winter wheat production (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate .743 BB, range of estimates are .676-.789 BB, and 2012 production was 1.004 BB
  • Soft red winter wheat production (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate .506 BB, range of estimates are .492-.517 BB, and 2012 production was .420 BB
  • White winter wheat production (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate .208 BB, range of estimates are .200-.217 BB, and 2012 production was .222 BB

 

‘12/13 US Grain and Bean Carryout Estimates

  • Corn (16 analysts surveyed) average estimate .748 BB, range of estimates are .700-.789 BB , May USDA estimate was .759 BB, and ‘11/12 US carryout was .989 BB
  • Beans (16 analysts surveyed) average estimate .125 BB, range of estimates are .119-.130 BB, May USDA estimate was .125 BB, and ‘11/12 US carryout was .169 BB
  • Wheat (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate .734 BB, range of estimates are .725-.751 BB , May USDA estimate was .731 BB, and ‘11/12 US carryout was .743 BB

‘13/14 US Grain and Bean Carryout Estimates

  • Corn (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.758 BB, range of estimates are 1.274-1.994 BB, and May USDA estimate was 2.004 BB
  • Beans (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate .273 BB, range of estimates are .185-.339 , and May USDA estimate was .265 BB
  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate .634 BB, range of estimates .501-.686 BB, and May USDA estimate was .670 BB

‘12/13 World Grain and Bean Carryout Estimates

·         Corn (8 analysts surveyed) average estimate 125.7 MMT , range of estimates are 124.5-128.2 MMT , May USDA estimate was 125.4 MMT, and ‘11/12 carryout was 132.2 MMT

·         Beans (9 analysts surveyed) average estimate 62.0 MMT, range of estimates are 60.5-63.0 MMT, May USDA estimate was 62.5 MMT, and ‘11/12 carryout was 54.7 MMT

·         Wheat (7 analysts surveyed) average estimate 180.4 MMT , range of estimates 179.8-181.6 MMT , May USDA estimate was 180.2 MMT , and ‘11/12 carryout was 199.5 MMT

 

‘13/14 World Grain and Bean Carryout Estimates

  • Corn (8 analysts surveyed) average estimate 150.5 MMT, range of estimates 143.9-155.2 MMT, and May USDA estimate was 154.6 MMT
  • Beans (9 analysts surveyed) average estimate 74.2 MMT, range of estimates are 68.2-76.0 MMT , and May USDA estimate was 75.0 MMT
  • Wheat (8 analysts surveyed) average estimate 185.5 MMT, range of estimates are 182.1-187.5 MMT, and May USDA estimate was 186.4 MMT

 

‘12/13 Argentina and Brazil Corn and Bean Production Estimates

  • Argentina’s corn production (9 analysts surveyed) average estimate 25.8 MMT, range of estimates 25.0-26.5 MMT, May USDA estimate was 26.5 MMT , and ‘11/12 production was 21.0 MMT
  • Argentina’s bean production (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 51.5 MMT, range of estimates are 49.0-54.0, May USDA estimate was 51.0 MMT , and ‘11/12 production was 40.1 MMT
  • Brazil’s corn production (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 75.7 MMT, range of estimates are 73.0-78.5 MMT, May USDA estimate was 76.0 MMT, and ‘11/12 production was 73.0 MMT
  • Brazil’s bean production (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 83.3 MMT, range of estimates are 81.5-85.0 MMT, May USDA estimate was 83.5 MMT, and ‘11/12 production was 66.5 MMT

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude build of 800K
    • Gas build of 500K
    • Distillates build of 800K
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand  report come out on June 12th at 11 am CDT
  • NOPA comes out Monday June 17th at 11 am CDT with their May crush report
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting June 18-19
  • July options expire Friday June 21st
  • Brazilian port workers may strike on June 25th

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg