News From the Grain Floor 6/10/13

Good morning

“There’s nothing I enjoy more than listening to a highly trained intelligence leapfrogging common sense and coming to the wrong conclusions”

– Tom Sharpe

Overnight closes

·         SN down 15 ½ at 1512 ¾

·         SX down 11 at 1319 ¼

·         CN down 8 at 658 ¼

·         CZ down 9 ¼ at 549 ¼

·         WN down 5 ½ at 690 ¾

·         WZ down 6 at 713 ¼

·         SMN down 3.60 at 448.90

·         BON down 30 at 4823

·         RRN up 3 at 1588.50

Overnight volume

·         SN 11,929

·         SX 13,728

·         CN 7,999

·         CZ 9,317

·         WN 5,943

·         SMN 5,648

·         BON 5,645

·         RRN 81

Opening calls

·         Beans 14-16 lower

·         Corn 7-9 lower

·         Wheat 4-6 lower

·         Meal 3-4 lower

·         Bean oil 20-40 lower

·         Rice 2-4 higher

Dollar and stock market higher. Crude, gold, and silver lower

Nikkei up 4.944%

Hang Seng up 1.85%

China’s May CPI +2.1% expecting +2.5% and vs. +2.7% in April

China’s May Trade surplus at $20.43 B expecting $17.6 B and vs. $18.16 B in April

China’s May exports +1.0% on year expecting +5.6% and vs. +14.7% in April

China’s May imports -.3% on year expecting +5.0% and vs. +16.8% in Apri;l

Chinese markets closed through Wednesday. Markets reopen on Thursday

Australian markets closed today.

Palm oil down 4

Malaysian Palm Oil Board May data report came out

·         May palm oil output at 1.384 MMT expecting 1.39 MMT and vs. 1.37 MMT in April

·         May palm oil stocks at 1.816 MMT expecting 1.78 MMT and vs. 1.93 MMT in April

·         May palm oil exports at 1.412 MMT expecting 1.41 MMT and vs. 1.45 MMT in April

China’s customs data showed China imported 710K tons of edible oil in May up 54% from a year ago and

China’s customs data showed China imported 3.35 MMT of edible oil in Jan- May up 22.7% from a year ago and

China’s customs data showed China imported 20.57 MMT of beans in Jan – May down 12.2% from a year ago

China’s customs data showed China imported 5.1 MMT of beans in May down 3.4% from a year ago

Argentine Ag Min said on Friday that Argentina has harvested 97% of their bean crop vs. 93% a year ago

Argentine Ag Min said on Friday that Argentina has harvested 74% of their corn crop vs. 64% a year ago

Argentina exported 3.3 MMT of corn in May (record) vs. April’s record of 2.8 MMT

Argentine Ag Min said China approved Argentina’s GM corn and soybeans , which should boost Argentine exports to China

Argentine Ag Secretary estimated Argentina’s 2013 corn production at 26-27 MMT and estimated corn exports at 18.0 MMT. Argentina’s Ag Sec said Argentina may not be able to ship large amounts of corn to China because of lack of additional supply on top of supplying their normal importers.

Argentine Ag Sector said they will strike tomorrow and May strike for a week.

Brazil stats data showed Brazil exported a record high 7.95 MMT of beans in May vs. 7.15 MMT in April

Brazil Stevedores threaten they will strike at all ports on June 25th

Russia’s Ag Min estimated ‘13/14 grain crop at 95.0 MMT

Russia’s Ag Min estimated ‘13/14 grain exports at 18-20 MMT

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia will buy 5.0 MMT of grains for reserves

Ukraine Ag Min estimated ‘13/14 grain crop at 53-54 MMT vs. 46.2 MMT a year ago

India’s Meteorological Department said Monsoon is 11% above 50 year average

Today is the second day of the Goldman Sachs roll. Roll ends Thursday

Today is the last day of the Deutsche Bank roll.

Weather better than expected over the weekend

Warmer temps this week in the Midwest with more rain around .

52 ethanol receipts were canceled Friday afternoon

45 bean oil receipts were canceled Friday afternoon out of Cargill Buffalo IA

Dec corn 100 day moving average is 554 ¼ .

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large spec positions as of 6/04/13. Futures and options combined

·         Wheat short 48,715

·         KC Wheat short 6,262

·         Corn long 15,842

·         Beans long 103,152

·         Meal long 40,937

·         Bean oil short 62,787

Open interest as of Friday’s close

·         CN 357,050 open, down 10,825

·         CZ 468,213 open, up 3,479

·         Total corn 1,204,846 open, up 14,544

·         SN 228,290 open, down 11,810

·         SX 263,504 open, up 8,386

·         Total beans 609,190 open, up 3,860

·         SMN 117,286 open, up 3,860

·         Total meal 294,475 open , down 1,029

·         BON 140,885 open, down 10,567

·         Total bean oil 368,194 open, up 142

·         WN 165,689 open, down 7,934

·         Total wheat 424,373 open, down 909

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CDT expecting
    • Corn planting 92-95% complete vs. 91% a week ago
    • Bean planting 70-75% complete vs. 57% a week ago
    • Spring wheat planting 81-84% complete vs. 80% a week ago
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand  report come out on June 12th at 11 am CDT – I will have estimates for Wednesday’s report in my afternoon wire.
  • NOPA comes out Monday June 17th at 11 am CDT with their May crush report
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting June 18-19
  • July options expire Friday June 21st

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg