News From The Grain Floor 6/06/13

Good morning.

 

Never give a sucker an even break

Edward Francis Albee

 

Overnight closes

  • SN down 3 ¼ at 1528 ¾
  • SX down a ½ at 1299 ½
  • CN down 1 at 659 ¾
  • CZ up 2 ¾ at 545
  • WN down 1 at 700 ½
  • SMN down .80 at 455.10
  • BON up 16 at 4846
  • RRN down 6 at 1572

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 10,864
  • SX 12,035
  • CN 4,927
  • CZ 7,685
  • WN  4,365
  • SMN 3,643
  • BON 6,323
  • RRN 277

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat steady lower
  • Meal .50-1.00 lower
  • Bean oil 10-20 higher
  • Rice 5-7 lower

 

Dollar, silver, and gold lower. Crude oil higher.

 

Nikkei down .852%

Hang Seng down 1.046%

Shanghai Index down 1.123%

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at – 11K to 346K expecting 345K

 

ECB leaves interest rates unchanged at .50% as expected

 

Palm oil up 31 (2 month high). Chinese grain markets lower except for palm oil was higher.

 

TALK from yesterday China bought US new crop corn.

 

Argentine farmers may temporarily stop crop sales to protest government policies in the next two months.

 

Rumor from yesterday – Argentine farmers were going to call a sales strike soon and that it would last for 10 days – Reuters

 

Japan bought 163,605 tons of milling wheat for July – Sept shipment . Breakdown

  • 35,335 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 25,805 tons of dark northern spring US wheat
  • 49,000 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat
  • 53,465 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Jordan bought 50K optional origin feed barley for August shipment

 

Iran bought 600K tons of German and Baltic Sea origin wheat for July/September shipment over the past 2 weeks for July-September shipment

 

Jordan seeks 100K optional origin barley

 

FAO estimated ‘13/14 global wheat production at 702.0 MMT (record) up 6.5% from 2012

 

FAO estimated ‘13/14 global corn crop at 963.0 MMT up 10% from 2012

 

Russia attaché estimated ‘13/14 grain exports at 24.0 MMT vs. 16.0 MMT in ‘12/13

 

Russia attaché estimated ‘13/14 grain crop at 91.0 MMT vs. 71.0 MMT in ‘12/13

 

59 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon . 46 out of Cargill Buffalo IA and 13 out of South Dakota Soybean Processors Volga SD

 

105 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Rains in forecast for Midwest through Monday , 90% coverage .

 

Good crop weather in Germany and France.

 

India Monsoon rains 28% above average in the first week

 

Chinese Industry Analysts – Chinese Crush Breakdown

  • For the week May 25-31 2013 total China crush volume nationwide at 1,212,400 tons up 11.95% from a week ago
  • Expecting domestic crush rates will continue to increase
  • For the week May 25-31 2013 total crush capacity utilization at 47.46% up 5.07% from a week ago
  • Total crush volume between Oct 1st 2012- May 31 2013 at 38,862,900 tons down .62% from a year ago
  • Total crush volume between Jan 1st – May 31 2013 at 23,300,320 tons up 1.33% from a year ago
  • As of May 24th total Chinese imported bean stocks at 4.3355 MMT up 138,100 tons from a week ago
  • Estimated June China bean imports at 7.8-8.0 MMT (record) – CNGOIC estimated June bean imports at 7.25 MMT (record)

 

CONAB Brazilian Crop estimates 

  • ‘12/13 Brazilian bean crop estimated at  81.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 81.5 MMT
  •  ‘12/13 Brazilian total corn crop estimated at 78.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 78.0 MMT
  •  ‘13/14 Brazilian wheat crop estimated at 5.56 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.4 MMT

 

Lanworth crop estimates (from yesterday)

  • ‘13/14 world corn crop estimated at 961 MMT vs. previous estimate of 965.0 MMT
  • ‘13/14 world bean crop estimated at 286 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 world wheat crop estimated at 694 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 US corn crop estimated at 13.8 BB down 1% from previous estimate
  • Expecting an 800K acre cut to 2013 US corn plantings
  • ‘13/14 US bean crop estimated at 3.40 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.43 BB
  • Expecting a 1 million acre cut to 2013 US bean plantings
  • ‘13/14 US wheat crop estimated at 1.45 BB down 1% from previous estimate
  • Expecting a 700K acre cut to 2013 US spring wheat plantings
  • ‘13/14 Australian wheat crop estimated at 24.8 MMT  up 3% from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 Canadian wheat crop estimated at 27.9 MMT down 1% from previous estimate

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat ‘12/13 – 33,200 ‘13/14 664,900 (expecting 300-600K)
  • Corn ‘12/13 107,200 ‘13/14 51,600 (expecting 500-800K)
  • Beans ‘12/13 48,400 ‘13/14 589,900 (expecting 300-700K)
  • Meal ‘12/13 134,200 ‘13/14 137,100 (expecting 75-175K)
  • Bean oil ‘12/13 30,500 (expecting 30-40K)
  • Cotton ‘12/13 184,200 ‘13/14 138,400

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales reductions of 33,200 MT for delivery in the 2012/2013 marketing year were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Chile (64,900 MT), Brazil (41,500 MT, including 40,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Portugal (13,900 MT, including 15,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,100 MT), the Philippines (12,600 MT, including 10,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Algeria (12,000 MT), and Israel (11,600 MT), were more than offset by decreases for unknown destinations (150,000 MT), South Korea (24,000 MT), Mexico (23,000 MT), and the French West Indies (4,000 MT). Net sales of 664,900 MT for delivery in the 2013/2014 marketing year were primarily for Mexico (117,600 MT), unknown destinations (112,500 MT), South Korea (93,500 MT), Japan (78,300 MT), and Brazil (75,000 MT). Exports of 528,500 MT were down 11 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (67,300 MT), Chile (66,900 MT), Mexico (58,800 MT), Nigeria (43,400 MT), Israel (36,200 MT), and Peru (33,000 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 107,200 MT for 2012/2013 were up 25 percent from the previous week, but down 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Japan (165,800 MT, including 86,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,600 MT), Mexico (7,400 MT), Canada (5,400 MT), and Venezuela (5,000 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (77,600 MT). Net sales of 51,600 MT for 2013/2014 were for Mexico. Exports of 359,800 MT were up 1 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (202,700 MT), Mexico (107,300 MT), Venezuela (20,000 MT), and Jamaica (18,500 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 48,400 MT for 2012/2013 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 32 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Germany (66,000 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from the Netherlands), Mexico (21,700 MT), Taiwan (10,700 MT), Morocco (10,000 MT), and Vietnam (9,300 MT), were partially offset by decreases for the Netherlands (60,000 MT) and Syria (27,000 MT). Net sales of 589,900 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for China (486,300 MT), unknown destinations (60,000 MT), Mexico (26,900 MT), and Malaysia (10,000 MT). Exports of 122,700 MT were up 9 percent from the previous week, but down 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Germany (66,000 MT), Mexico (11,400 MT), Israel (9,400 MT), Japan (8,900 MT), and Vietnam (6,000 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 134,200 MT for 2012/2013 were down 10 percent from the previous week, but up 38 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for unknown destinations (64,500 MT), Colombia (27,000 MT), Venezuela (11,000 MT), the Philippines (9,800 MT), Canada (9,600 MT), and Israel (8,000 MT). Decreases were reported for Sri Lanka (2,100 MT). Net sales of 137,100 MT for 2013/2014 were for unknown destinations (135,000 MT), the Philippines (2,000 MT), and Canada (100 MT). Exports of 110,800 MT were down 38 percent from the previous week and 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Canada (24,200 MT), Mexico (23,700 MT), Venezuela (23,000 MT), Guatemala (9,500 MT), Israel (6,500 MT), and Jamaica (6,500 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 30,500 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Germany (30,000 MT) and Mexico (1,000 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Canada (700 MT). Exports of 1,900 MT–a marketing-year low–were down 84 percent from the previous week and 82 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (900 MT), Canada (800 MT), and Trinidad (100 MT).
  • Cotton – Net Upland sales of 184,200 running bales for 2012/2013 were up 57 percent from the previous week and 80 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Vietnam (65,900 RB), China (36,700 RB), Turkey (25,800 RB), Taiwan (15,500 RB), and Indonesia (12,400 RB). Net sales of 138,400 RB for 2013/2014 were reported primarily for China (98,100 RB), Vietnam (16,900 RB), and Mexico (14,900 RB). Exports of 276,600 RB were down 8 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (115,100 RB), Turkey (41,900 RB), Mexico (17,200 RB), Vietnam (15,900 RB), Thailand (15,100 RB), and Indonesia (10,100 RB). Net American Pima sales of 1,000 RB for 2012/2013 were reported for China (400 RB), Japan (300 RB), and Taiwan (300 RB). Exports of 30,500 RB–a marketing-year high–were up 77 percent from the previous week and 47 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily to China (23,400 RB), India (3,100 RB), and South Korea (2,200 RB).

 

Moving averages

  • SX 200 day 1292 ¼
  • CZ 50 day 541
  • WN 50 day 703 ½
  • WZ 50 day 726 ¼

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CN 370,744 open, down 12,496
  • CZ 459,739 open, up 11,212
  • Total corn 1,183,799 open, up 4,068
  • SN 251,228 open, down 7,748
  • SX 243,276 open, up 6,307
  • Total beans 603,273 open, up 2,954
  • SMN 130,563 open, up 388
  • Total meal 293,857 open, up 6,623
  • BON 156,264 open, down 5,187
  • Total bean oil 368,289 open, down 1,540
  • WN 181,936 open, down 7,801
  • Total wheat 425,279 open, down 3,173

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CDT expecting +99 B
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins tomorrow . Lasts for 5 days . They will be rolling long July positions forward.
  • May US unemployment comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT
  • China’s May CPI comes out on June 9th. BOC expecting +2.5% vs. +2.4% in April
  • Malaysian Palm oil Board comes out with their May data report on Monday, June 10. Based on a Reuters survey of 5 analysts , estimates for the report are
    • May palm oil production average estimate 1.39 MMT vs. April production of 1.37 MMT
    • May palm oil stocks average estimate 1.78 MMT vs. April stocks of 1.93 MMT
    • May palm oil exports average estimate 1.41 MMT vs. 1.45 MMT in April.
  • Surveyors will estimate Malaysia’s June 1-10 palm oil exports on Monday, June 10
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand  report come out on June 12th at 11 am CDT

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg