News from the grain floor 5/30/2013

Good morning

 

Listen, here’s the thing. If you can’t spot the sucker in the first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker.

Mike McDermott

 

Rogers roll begins today. Rogers roll lasts 3 days. They will roll long July positions forward. Hearing they will roll July beans, meal, and oil into August and July corn and wheat into September.

 

USDA announced 120K new crop US beans sold to China

 

Overnight closes

  • SN down 8 at 1493 ¾
  • SX down 3 ¼ at 1285 ½
  • CN down 2 ¾ at 662 ¼
  • CZ down 3 ¼ at 562 ½
  • WN down 7 ¼ at 695 ½
  • SMN down 2.70 at 441.60
  • BON down 3 at 4860
  • RRN down 8.50 at 1537.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 7,122
  • SX 8,520
  • CN 5,622
  • CZ 11,136
  • WN 5,516
  • SMN 2,957
  • BON 8,176
  • RRN 24

 

Opening calls

  • Beans old crop 9-12 lower, new crop 4-6 lower
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat 6-8 lower
  • Meal 2-3 lower
  • Bean oil 5-10 lower
  • Rice 6-8 lower

 

Gold, silver, and stock market higher. Crude and dollar lower

 

Nikkei down 5.147%

Hang Seng down .313%

Shanghai Index down .266%

 

Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning +10K to 354K expecting 340K

 

US 1st quarter GDP came out this morning at +2.4% as expected

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a build of 4.4 MB expecting a draw of 400K
  • Gas a build of 1.937 MB expecting a build of 100K
  • Distillates a build of 3.113 MB expecting unchanged

 

Palm oil down 27. China beans and oils lower meal higher and corn unchanged

 

Lack of news this morning

 

China raises state purchasing price for wheat in 2013 by 10%

 

Expecting palm oil demand to rise before Ramadan . Ramadan begins in July

 

South Korea Nofi bought 68K tons of South American or US corn for October shipment

 

Japan is suspending imports of US wheat grade on GM concerns

 

Japan bought 117,035 tons of milling wheat for June/August shipment

  • 20,415 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 32,665 tons of DNS US wheat
  • 63,995 tons of WRS Canadian wheat
  • Canceled 24,926 tons of western white US wheat due to unapproved GM wheat found in a farm in Oregon

 

Jordan retenders for 150K optional origin wheat and 100K optional origin barley

 

Lebanon bought 25K German wheat for June shipment

 

India’s STC tenders to sell 100K wheat for July shipment

 

Bangladesh retenders for 50K optional origin wheat for June/July shipment

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said Kazakhstan exported 6.3 MMT of grain between July 1st – May 20th vs. 9.5 MMT a year ago

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min estimated ‘12/13 grain exports at 7-8 MMT

 

MDA Weather Services estimated ‘13/14 global feed grain production at 1.133 Billion tons down 700K tons from previous estimate

 

MDA estimated ‘13/14 US corn crop at 13.331 BB down 24 MB from previous estimate

 

MDA estimated ‘13/14 global oilseed crop at 464.26 MMT up 130,000 tons from previous estimate due to US farmers switching from corn acres to bean acres

 

Macquarie said large US corn crop may send price to $4

 

Heavy rains and thunderstorms in Midwest today and tomorrow

 

Russia and Ukraine crop weather improving

 

28 ethanol receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Moving averages

  • SX 200 day 1291 ¾
  • CN 100 day 674 ¼
  • CZ 100 day 556 ¼
  • WN 50 day 706
  • WZ 50 day 728 ¼

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CN 420,724 open, down 7,140
  • Total corn 1,185,602 open, up 4,105
  • SN 269,985 open, down 5,968
  • Total beans 580,305 open, down 1,018
  • SMN 141,097 open, up 2,858
  • Total meal 281,556 open, up 2,669
  • BON 176,037 open, up 2,475
  • Total bean oil 369,545 open, up 10,902
  • WN 204,842 open, down 6,281
  • Total wheat 410,192 open, down 5,613

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CDT expecting +86  B
  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 10 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a draw of 500K
    • Gas a draw of 500K
    • Distillates a draw of 450K
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 10 am CDT
  • Tomorrow is month end
  • OPEC meets tomorrow in Vienna
  • Surveyors Intertek and SGS will put out their May Malaysian palm oil export estimates tomorrow expecting 1.26 MMT down 2-3% from a month ago
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT
  • Argentina will raise biodiesel blend rate to 10% from 7% on June 1st
  • Deutsche Bank roll begins June 4th They will be rolling wheat only Long July 2013 positions into July 2014. Roll lasts 5 days.
  • CME to launch palm oil swaps contract on June 3rd
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins June 7th . Lasts for 5 days
  • China’s May CPI comes out on June 9th. BOC expecting +2.5% vs. +2.4% in April

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg