News From the Grain Floor 5/23/13

Good morning

I am a little busy this morning, there is more news. I will send additional news shortly.

The good part, William, is that, no matter whether our clients make money or lose money, Duke & Duke get the commissions.

Randolph Duke

USDA announced 115K new crop US beans sold to China

Overnight closes

·         SN down 2 at 1492 ¼

·         CN down 3 ½ at 655

·         WN up 5 ¼ at 693 ¾

·         SMN down 2.00 at 438.60

·         BON down 22 at 4942

·         RRN up 6.50 at 1540.50

Overnight volume

·         SN 16,454

·         CN 6,794

·         WN 8,478

·         SMN 5,601

·         BON 7,976

·         RRN 82

Opening calls

·         Beans 2-4 lower

·         Corn 2-4 lower

·         Wheat 4-6 higher

·         Meal 1.50-2.50 lower

·         Bean oil 15-25 lower

·         Rice 6-8 higher

Crude, dollar, and stock market lower. Gold and silver higher.

Nikkei down 7.316%

Hang Seng down 2.542%

Shanghai Index down 1.133% n

Most world stock markets lower.

Weekly jobless claims came out this morning at – 23K to 340K expecting 345K

a few participants expressed concern that conditions in certain U.S. financial markets were becoming too buoyant…. One participant cautioned that the emergence of financial imbalances could prove difficult for regulators to identify and address, and that it would be appropriate to adjust monetary policy to help guard against risks to financial stability

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/05/22/parsing-fed-minutes-debating-when-to-pull-back/

May Flash PMIs

·         Eurozone 47.8 (3 month high) expecting 47.0 and vs. 46.7 in April

·         German 49.0 expecting 48.5 and vs. 48.1 in April

·         French 45.5 (9 month high) expecting 44.8 vs. 44.4 in April

·         China HSBC at 49.6 (7 month low) vs. 50.4 in April

Rumors from yesterday – More South American beans being imported into the US

·         Expecting 3 cargoes in May

·         Expecting 4 cargoes in June

·         Expecting 3-4 cargoes in July

Hearing China bought 1 cargo of Argentine beans yesterday for August shipment

Hearing China bought 1 US bean cargo off the PNW yesterday for October shipment

Hearing 1 cargo of US beans were sold off the Gulf yesterday for Sept/Oct shipment

Analysts expect China to buy US SRW wheat, if wheat prices fall.

Analysts expect Argentina to export a record 3 MMT or more beans in May vs. April record of 2.8 MMT

Argentina exported about 2.3 MMT of corn between May 1 – May 21

Egypt FIHC to hold tender next week for 12K sunflower oil for June- July shipment

India farmers are not selling/holding on to their wheat hoping for higher domestic prices

Weekly US export sales report

·         Wheat ‘12/13 239,000 ‘13/14 713,600 (expecting 400-700K)

·         Corn ‘12/13 104,600 ‘13/14 341,600 (expecting 200-500K)

·         Beans ‘12/13 183,500 ‘13/14 838,900 (expecting 400-800K)

·         Meal ‘12/13 131,200 ‘13/14 125,400 (expecting 100-225K)

·         Bean oil ‘12/13 9,600 (expecting 0-15K)

·         Cotton ‘12/13 101,700 ‘13/14 36,400

Export highlights

·         Wheat ‘12/13 Nigeria bought 105,400 , Brazil bought 72K, Mexico bought 46,400 , unknown canceled 98,600, Dominican Republic canceled 3,500 ‘13/14 unknown bought 162,900 , Dominican Republic bought 68,100 , Venezuela bought 66,500

·         Corn ‘12/13 Mexico bought 40,300 , Unknown bought 32K , Jamaica bought 13,300 ‘13/14 unknown bought 205,400 , Japan bought 64,200 China bought 60K

·         Beans ‘12/13 unknown bought 82,800 , Japan bought 35,200 , Indonesia bought 30,900 , ‘13/14 China bought 531K , unknown bought 180K , Indonesia canceled 5K

·         Meal ‘12/13 Ecuador bought 62,200 , unknown bought 27,300 , Venezuela bought 23K, Colombia canceled 25,300 Portugal canceled 8,700 ‘13/14 unknown bought 75K, Vietnam bought 47K

·         Bean oil South Korea bought 8K Mexico bought 1,600 Canada canceled 600

·         Cotton ‘12/13 China bought 29,900 , Turkey bought 17,200 Vietnam bought 16K ‘13/14 South Korea bought 20,100 Mexico bought 11,400 Turkey canceled 7,900

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

·         CN 435,507 open, down 203

·         Total corn 1,175,442 open, down 678

·         SN 294,418 open, down 3,206

·         Total beans 585,716 open, up 2,988

·         SMN 140,006 open, up 814

·         Total meal 273,416 open, up 6,737

·         BON 175,660 open, down 1,095

·         Total bean oil 351,348 open, down 250

·         WN 219,814 open, down 527

·         Total wheat 417,105 open, up 2,884

Upcoming reports/events

·         Weekly EIA Nat Gas Storage report comes out today at 930 am CDT expecting +92 B

·         Malaysian palm oil markets are closed tomorrow for public holiday

  • June options expire tomorrow
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT  
  • See attachment for Memorial Day trading hours schedule
  • Rogers roll begins May 30th. Lasts for 3 days
  • OPEC meets May 31st in Vienna
  • Argentina will raise biodiesel blend rate to 10% from 7% on June 1st
  • CME to launch palm oil swaps contract on June 3rd
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins June 7th . Lasts for 5 days

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg