News From the Grain Floor 5/20/13

Good morning

I feel that the most important requirement in success is learning to overcome failure. You must learn to tolerate it, but never accept it.

Reggie Jackson [yes THAT Reggie]

USDA announced 120K US corn sold to unknown for ‘13/14 delivery


Overnight closes

·         SN up 1 at 1449 ½

·         CN up 1 ¼ at 654

·         WN down 2 at 681 ¼

·         SMN up 1 at 426.10

·         BON down 10 at 4942

·         RRN up 1.50 at 1525

Overnight volume

·         SN 16,371

·         CN 12,869

·         WN 5,686

·         SMN 5,540

·         BON 5,566

·         RRN 23

Opening calls

·         Beans steady better

·         Corn 1-2 higher

·         Wheat 1-3 lower

·         Meal .50-1.50 higher

·         Bean oil 5-15 lower

·         Rice 1-2 higher

Crude, gold, silver, stock market, and dollar are all lower this morning

Nikkei up 1.471%

Hang Seng up 1.778%

Shanghai Index up .774%

Palm oil down 2. Chinese grain markets higher beans, meal, and bean oil , lower corn and palm oil

International grains conference in Bali.

SGS estimated Malaysia’s May 1-20th palm oil exports at 807,232 tons down 6.6% from a month ago

China’s Ministry of Agriculture said as of May 16th 96.7% of the corn has been planted in northeast China unchanged from a year ago

China’s poultry industry has had losses of over 40 billion Yuan due to the bird flu since the end of March

Vietnam bought 120K tons of US meal for Sept/Nov shipment

Santos port workers are having meetings this morning, they may or may not strike.

Senior Agriculture Economist at Kansas State University said we could see a 6-8% drop in late planted US corn yield , if planting delays continue through the end of May 2-4 million acres of corn could be switched to beans

Agritend estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 wheat area at 4.0 – 4.2 MH vs. BAGE estimate of 3.9 MH and vs. ‘12/13 area of 3.6 MH

US Soybean Export Council said soybean prices could fall below $10 by July due to acreage switch from corn to beans

US Soybean Export Council estimated 2013 US bean area at 80.0 MA

CBH said Australia’s ’13/14 wheat crop will increase 16% this year

Japan’s Ag Ministry said use of corn in animal feed in March was 42.2% vs. 44.3% a year ago

Japan’s Ag  Ministry said Japan imported 1.31 MMT of corn in March down 9.2% from a year ago . 40.5% of March imports were from the US vs. 87.8% a year ago and 50.2% was from Brazil vs. .1% a year ago

IKAR estimated 2013 Russian wheat crop at 53.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 52.5 MMT

IKAR estimated 2013 Russia grain crop at 92.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 90.0 MMT

Analysts said Philippines feed millers to buy more feed wheat from Black sea regions in the second half of 2013. In the first half of 2013 Philippines bought most of their feed wheat from Australia and India

On Friday, hearing China bought 1 cargo of Brazilian beans for July shipment and bought 1 cargo of Argentine beans for June/July shipment

On Friday, Argentine Ag Min said 85% of the bean crop has been harvested vs. 83% a year ago

On Friday, Argentine Ag Min said 61% of the corn crop has been harvested vs. 58% a year ago

On Friday, USDA confirmed PEDV virus had been found in Iowa hog population , USDA said virus does not affect humans and is not a food safety concern.

On Friday, WHO said there is 131 confirmed human cases of the H7N9 bird flu virus with 36 deaths

On Friday, AGP Inc. said they will be permanently closing Nebraska ethanol plant. The plant had been idled since February . They said ethanol margins did not improve.

Vietnam exported 2.39 MMT of rice between January 1st – May 16th

77 corn receipts were canceled Friday afternoon from ADM

267 total bean oil receipts were canceled Friday afternoon Breakdown

·         27 out of AGP Dawson MN

·         111 out of AGP Manson City IA

·         125 out of Bunge Decatur IN

·         4 out of Minnesota soybean Processors Brewster MN

Rains in forecast for eastern Australia , Ukraine, and western Russia

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday . Large Spec positions as of 5/14/13 futures and options combined

·         Wheat short 50,623

·         KC Wheat short 1,976

·         Corn long 14,249

·         Beans long 44,800

·         Meal long 25,871

·         Bean oil short 57,245

Moving averages

·         CN 50 day 655 ¾

·         BON 50 day 4960

·         BOZ 50 day 4886

·         SMZ 50 day 344.40

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out today at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CDT expecting
    • Corn planting to be 55-75% complete
    • Bean planting to be 25-35% complete
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT
  • EU summit in Brussels on Wednesday
  • FOMC to read minutes from April 30th – May 1st meeting on Wednesday
  • Chinese and European economic data comes out on Thursday
  • ECB president speaks on “Future of Europe” in London on Thursday
  • June options expire Friday
  • Rogers roll begins May 30th. Lasts for 3 days
  • OPEC meets May 31st in Vienna
  • Argentina will raise biodiesel blend rate to 10% from 7% on June 1st
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins June 7th . Lasts for 5 days

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg