News from the Grain Floor 5/06/13

Good morning

“People know that if the economy is so fragile that government cannot allow failure, then we are indeed close to collapse

Seth Klarman

Overnight closes

·         SN down 3 ¾ at 1383 ½

·         CN down 16 ¼ at 645

·         WN down 12 at 709

·         SMN down 1.40 at 405.10

·         BON up 5 at 4932

·         RRN down 16.5 at 1519

Overnight volume

·         SN 11,543

·         CN 13,922

·         WN 9,895

·         SMN 6,175

·         BON 9,864

·         RRN 33

Opening calls

·         Beans 2-4 lower

·         Corn 12-15 lower

·         Wheat 10-12 lower

·         Meal .50-1 lower

·         Bean oil steady to 10 higher

·         Rice 15-17 lower

Crude lower. Dollar higher

Nikkei down .763%

Hang Seng up .992%

Shanghai Index up 1.167%

ECB president speaks in Rome today .

Palm oil down 2. Chinese grain markets higher except for meal was lower.

General elections in Malaysia yesterday – National Front coalition retained power

Malaysian Ringgits traded at the highest since 1998.

Analysts expecting Middle East and Indian palm oil demand to rise ahead of Ramadan which begins in July.

China extends corn stockpiling program for 1 month until the end of May

South Korea bought 32,314 tons of optional origin rice for Aug-Sept

South Korea NOFI seeks 70K optional origin corn for September shipment

South Korea seeks 10K optional origin non-GM beans for July-Aug shipment

Libya seeks 50K milling wheat and 50K durum wheat optional origin

Algeria seeks 50K optional origin durum wheat for June/July shipment

Argentina’s Ag Min said as of 5/03 66% of the bean crop has been harvest unchanged from a year ago

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India exported 199,168 tons of oilmeal in April vs. 403,090 tons a year ago

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India exported 99,451 tons of meal in April down 67% from a month ago

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India exported 54,077 tons of rapeseed meal in April vs. 45,734 tons a year ago

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India’s ‘12/13 oilmeal exports were at 4.8 MMT down 14.3% from a year ago

ANZ said US HRW wheat crop expected to fall 15% this year

Egypt’s Prime Minister estimated Egypt’s 2013 wheat imports at 4-5 MMT vs. 10.0 M average per year.

Egypt’s Prime Minister said Egypt bought 284K tons of local wheat for stocks between April 1- May 2nd vs. 36,203 tons a year ago

Egypt’s Prime Minister estimated Egypt’s wheat crop at 9.5 MMT

Analysts were expecting Egypt’s GASC to tender for wheat this week.

Vietnam Food Association said Vietnam exported 700,710 tons of rice in April vs. General Statistics Office estimate of 800K tons

Western corn belt received 40% of rain and or snow over the weekend, Eastern corn belt slightly drier than expected over the weekend . This weekend and this week is drier than expect and the 6-10 is slightly drier than expected

Ukraine and Russia dry helping spring planting progress, rain is needed .

Analysts said dry southern Russian weather may hurt grain crops.

Canada warmer this week

Rain in forecast for western Australia central and eastern areas dry for the next 10 days

366 wheat receipts canceled Friday afternoon by the Andersons

48 new ethanol receipts were registered Friday afternoon

31 rice receipts canceled

73 bean oil receipts were canceled Friday afternoon

·         13 out of Cargill Ackley IA

·         60 out of South Dakota Soybean Processors , Volga SD


·         Bean oil 237 with the date at 5/01/13

o   Bunge house stopped 12

o   Rand issued 107

·         Rice 15 with the date current

·         Ethanol 68 with the date at 4/08

·         Wheat 1,024 with the date current

o   Term issued 931

·         No beans, meal, or bean oil

Moving averages

·         WN 50 day is 710

·         WZ 50 day is 731

·         BON 50 day is 4980

·         SMN 50 day is 409.10

Open interest as of Friday’s close

·         CN 459,472 open, up 1,480

·         Total corn 1,140,308 open, down 2,449

·         SN 290,595 open, up 2,414

·         Total beans 541,583 open, up 4,670

·         SMN 138,399 open, up 2,952

·         Total meal 255,030 open, up 3,510

·         BON 188,697 open, down 4,730

·         Total bean oil 341,215 open, down 2,501

·         WN 234,007 open, down 143

·         Total wheat 409,435 open, up 2,060

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out at 3 pm CDT today. expecting 13-20% corn planting complete vs. 5 year average of 45%-47% . We should also see bean planting progress on today’s report expecting 1-4% complete
  • Hearing Informa will come out this week with 2013 US acreage estimates. Previous acreage estimates were
    • Corn acreage estimated at 97.753 MA vs. USDA estimate of 97.3 MA
    • Bean acreage estimated at 78.457 MA vs. USDA estimate of 77.1 MA
    • All wheat acreage estimated at 56.074 MA vs. USDA estimate of 56.4 MA
    • Cotton acreage estimated at 10.367 MA vs. USDA estimate of 10.0 MA
  • German and France finance ministers meet tomorrow.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT
  • Chinese economic data comes out on Thursday.
  • CONAB Brazilian crop report comes out on Thursday . Previous estimates were
    • Bean crop at 81.9 MMT
    • Average bean yield at 2.957 TPH
    • 1st  corn crop at 34.8 MMT
    • 2nd corn crop at 42.68 MMT
    • Total corn crop at 77.45 MMT
    • Wheat crop at 4.3 MMT
    • Cotton crop at 1.2 MMT
  • G8 meets on Friday in the UK
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out with their April data report on Friday . Expecting
    • Palm oil stocks 2.07 MMT vs. 2.17 MMT in March
    • Palm oil exports 1.42 M vs. 1.54 M in March
    • Palm oil output 1.40 MMT vs. 1.33 M in March
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Friday at 11 am CDT . Should see estimates for Friday’s report on newswires this afternoon or tomorrow morning.
  • CME to launch RINs contracts including ethanol RINs and biodiesel RINs on May 13th  
  • May futures expire at noon CDT on May 14th
  • NOPA April crush report comes out May 15th at 11 am CDT
  • Argentina will raise biodiesel blend rate to 10% from 7% on June 1st

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg