News from the grain floor 5-22-13

Good morning

These days, the problem with many neighborhoods is that there are more hoods than neighbors.

Alfred E. Neuman.

USDA announced 360K new crop corn sold to China


USDA announced 180K new crop corn sold to unknown

Overnight closes

·         SN down 3 ¾ at 1474 ½

·         CN down 2 at 638

·         WN up 4 ½ at 685

·         SMN down 3.50 at 435.20

·         BON up 3 at 4951

·         RRN up 4.50 at 1522.5

Overnight volume

·         SN 15,974

·         CN 7,904

·         WN 5,738

·         SMN 5,401

·         BON 5,959

·         RRN 9

Opening calls

·         Beans 2-4 lower

·         Corn 1-2 lower

·         Wheat 4-6 higher

·         Meal 2-4 lower

·         Bean oil steady better

·         Rice up 3-5 higher

Dollar higher. Stock market higher . Silver and gold higher. Crude lower

Nikkei up 1.601%

Hang Seng down .451%

Shanghai Index down .107%

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

·         Crude a build of 532K expecting a draw of 800K

·         Gas a build of 3.032 MB expecting unchanged

·         Distillates a build of 460,000 expecting a build of 900K

Palm oil up 25. Chinese grain markets higher except for meal was slightly lower

Indonesia to keep June palm oil export tax unchanged from May export tax at 9%

Analysts expect Malaysia’s May palm oil output to decline 5% this month

Analysts expecting Malaysia’s May palm oil ending stocks at 1.75-1.82 MMT

Rumors from yesterday – China rolling beans from July to November

Rumors from yesterday – China buying new crop US corn – USDA confirmed this morning

CNGOIC said China canceled 150K tons of South American bean oil due to ample supplies and weak domestic prices

Chinese Industry Analysts

·         China imported 2.912 MMT of rapeseed between June 2012-May 21 2013 up 40.9% from a year ago

·         Estimated May rapeseed imports at above 200K tons

·         Estimated ‘12/13 rapeseed imports at 3.10 MMT (record)

·         China imported 1.357 MMT of rapeseed oil between June 2012-May 21 2013 up 135.2% from a year ago

·         Estimated May rapeseed oil imports at 150K tons

·         Estimated ‘12/13 rapeseed oil imports at 1.50 MMT

·         Northern China corn stocks at ports at 3.77 MMT up 1.33 MMT from a year go

Egypt FIHC bought 12K sunflower oil  – They will be tendering Thursday for 20K more tons

Tunisia seeks 67K tons of milling wheat and 25K feed barley optional origin for June shipment

Jordan retenders for 150K optional origin milling wheat

Jordan canceled tender for 100K feed barley

Taiwan canceled tender for 60K Brazilian or South African corn for July August shipment due to high prices

Argentina’s Ag Secretary estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 wheat area at 4.5 MH up 40% from a year ago

During the grains conference in Bali Analysts said wait time for corn shipments at some Argentina ports are at 50 days

Cash prices are weakening

Rains in forecast for Midwest

Rains in forecast for Australia

75 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

·         CN 436,065 open, down 1,059

·         Total corn 1,170,280 up , 544

·         SN 267,869 open, up 2,900

·         Total beans 583,270 open, up 3,440

·         SMN 139,280 open, up 163

·         Total meal 266,796 open, up 1,077

·         BON 176,749 open, down 7,027

·         Total bean oil 351,627 open, down 6,675

·         WN 220,580 open, down 1,193

·         Total wheat 414,894 open, up 1,118

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE numbers come out today at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.0 MB
    • Gas a draw of 300K
    • Distillates a build of 1.0 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • EU summit in Brussels on Wednesday
  • FOMC to read minutes from April 30th – May 1st meeting on Wednesday
  • Chinese and European economic data comes out on Thursday
  • ECB president speaks on “Future of Europe” in London on Thursday
  • June options expire Friday
  • See attachment for Memorial Day trading hours schedule
  • Rogers roll begins May 30th. Lasts for 3 days
  • OPEC meets May 31st in Vienna
  • Argentina will raise biodiesel blend rate to 10% from 7% on June 1st
  • CME to launch palm oil swaps contract on June 3rd
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins June 7th . Lasts for 5 days

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg