News from the grain floor 5-16-2013

Good morning

You make no friends in the pits and you take no prisoners

Louis Winthorpe III

Overnight closes

·         SN up 3 ¼ at 1416

·         CN down a ¼ at 650 ½

·         WN up 2 ¾ at 696 ½

·         SMN down .50 at 410.00

·         BON up 17 at 4952

·         RRN down 8.50 at 1514.5

Overnight volume

·         SN 8,046

·         CN 4,711

·         WN 4,934

·         SMN 4,531

·         BON 7,881

·         RRN 73

Opening calls

·         Beans 2-4 higher

·         Corn mixed

·         Wheat 2-4 higher

·         Meal steady mixed

·         Bean oil 10-20 higher

·         Rice 8-10 lower

Crude higher. Dollar lower. Gold and silver lower

Nikkei down .389%

Hang Seng up .167%

Shanghai Index up 1.223%

US April CPI came out this morning at -.4% expecting -.3%

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at +32K to 360K expecting 330K

Palm oil up 17. Chinese grain markets higher beans, corn, and palm oil and lower meal and bean oil

Analysts expecting palm oil demand to increase ahead of Ramadan holiday, which begins in July

Hearing 2 cargos of US beans sold off the Gulf yesterday for October shipment, 1 cargo of US beans sold of the PNW yesterday for October shipment, and China bought 1 cargo of Brazilian beans for July/August shipment

TALK / RUMORS China buying/eyeing new crop US beans

CNGOIC estimated June China bean imports at 7.0-7.5 MMT , estimated July imports at above 6.0 MMT , estimated August at 5.0 MMT and estimated September at 5.0 MMT

MOC said China imported 1,373 tons of meal in April and estimated May imports at 1,347 tons

Chinese industry analysts said corn stocks at northern Chinese ports at 3.75 MMT up 1.42 MMT from a year ago

Reuters Article said Buenos Aires industry sources said a record high 2 MMT of South American corn is being sent into the US through August (mainly Virginia and North Carolina) due to 2012 drought . US bought 1.5 MMT of South American corn, mostly from Brazil , between September 2012 – February 2013 . Expecting US to buy 500-600K South American, mostly Argentine corn, between March and August. USDA estimated corn imports at 3.2 MMT with one third coming from Canada.

Bangladesh bought 50K optional origin wheat for June shipment

South Korea bought 10K non-GM soybean for Sept/October shipment

South Korea Kocopia bought 55K Brazilian corn for August shipment

South Korea has bought over 600K tons of corn and wheat the past 10 days

Japan bought 147,620 tons of wheat for June –Aug shipment Breakdown

  • 24,556 tons of western white US
  • 29,200 dark northern spring US
  • 30,966 HRW wheat US
  • 34,632 tons of western red spring Canada
  • 28,266 tons of Australian white

Egypt FIHC to hold tender in the next couple of weeks for 20-24K sunflower oil

Japan seeks 120K feed wheat and 200K feed barley via SBS tender for August shipment

From Brazilian contact – Schutter Group – “Brazil Congress still debating ports Decree; Unions Strike in Protest

Debate in Congress over a proposal to expand and modernize Brazil’s ports moved into a 3rd day, lessening the chances of the decree being voted into law before a Thursday deadline.

Operations in port, despite virtually normal, are subject to casual stoppages held by dock workers.”

Ukraine State Statistics Office said May 1st grain stocks at 8.4 MMT down 39% from a year ago including 3 MMT of wheat , 900K tons of barley , 3.7 MMT of corn, and 200K tons of rye

Egypt president wants to stop importing wheat within  four years

Egypt normally imports 10.0 MMT of wheat per year , 2013 imports are estimated at 4-5 MMT and 2013 local wheat crop estimated at 9.5 MMT

24 wheat receipts canceled yesterday afternoon by the Andersons

17 ethanol receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

8 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Ag Processing Inc. Omaha NE

Midwest rain in forecast for Saturday – Tuesday , warm and drier weather starting Wednesday

Expecting Monday’s US crop progress report to show 60% corn planting complete and 30-35% bean planting complete

Ukraine and Russia have rains in forecast for the next 10 days

Weekly US export sales report

·         Wheat ‘12/13 125K ‘13/14 415,600 (expecting 200-500K)

·         Corn ‘12/13 219,900 ‘13/14 38,600 (expecting 200-550K)

·         Beans ‘12/13 15,300 ‘13/14 346,600 (expecting 25-150K)

·         Meal ‘12/13 82,800 ‘13/14 109,700 (expecting 25-150K)

·         Bean oil ‘12/13 – 5,300 (expecting 0-15K)

·         Cotton ‘12/13 74K ‘13/14 68,800

Export highlights

·         Wheat Net sales of 125,000 MT for delivery in the 2012/2013 marketing year were down 48 percent from the previous week and 52 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for the Philippines (65,000 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Egypt (63,000 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Saudi Arabia (57,700 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Guatemala (35,300 MT, including 32,600 MT switched from unknown destinations), Peru (35,000 MT, including 27,500 MT switched from Haiti), and Indonesia (32,600 MT), were more than offset by decreases for unknown destinations (255,100 MT), Japan (60,000 MT), and Haiti (27,500 MT). Net sales of 415,600 MT for delivery in the 2013/2014 marketing year were primarily for unknown destinations (196,900 MT), Japan (64,800 MT), Brazil (57,000 MT), and Mexico (38,700 MT). Exports of 726,800 MT were up 30 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (148,000 MT), Mexico (82,300 MT), the Philippines (65,000 MT), Egypt (63,000 MT), Saudi Arabia (57,700 MT), and Nigeria (44,600 MT).

·         Corn Net sales of 219,900 MT for 2012/2013 were up 90 percent from the previous week, but down 24 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Mexico (136,700 MT, including 33,300 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,000 MT), Japan (132,900 MT, including 85,400 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 25,400 MT), Venezuela (19,800 MT), Canada (10,700 MT), El Salvador (10,200 MT, switched from Guatemala), and Trinidad (7,200 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (86,000 MT), Panama (14,500 MT), and Guatemala (11,200 MT). Net sales of 38,600 MT for 2013/2014 were for Mexico (31,100 MT) and panama (7,500 MT). Exports of 298,500 MT were up 55 percent from the previous week, but down 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (132,700 MT), Mexico (79,900 MT), Venezuela (22,500 MT), Guatemala (19,000 MT), and Honduras (15,000 MT).

·         Beans Net sales of 15,300 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Mexico (10,300 MT), Taiwan (8,700 MT), Canada (3,100 MT), Vietnam (1,800 MT), and Indonesia (1,300 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (9,000 MT) and Japan (1,900 MT). Net sales of 346,600 MT for 2013/2014 were primarily for China (275,000 MT), Mexico (45,000 MT), and unknown destinations (20,500 MT). Exports of 167,600 MT were down 3 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (66,400 MT), Mexico (31,000 MT), Indonesia (26,400 MT), Japan (13,200 MT), Taiwan (9,900 MT), and Vietnam (8,000 MT).

·         Meal Net sales of 82,800 MT for 2012/2013 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 44 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Colombia (52,000 MT), Venezuela (26,700 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the United Kingdom (24,500 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (22,800 MT), Canada (9,000 MT), and Ecuador (7,400 MT, including 8,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 600 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (75,400 MT), Guatemala (3,400 MT), and Panama (3,200 MT). Net sales of 109,700 MT for delivery in 2013/2014 were for Vietnam (94,000 MT), Canada (12,800 MT), and the Philippines (2,900 MT). Exports of 125,700 MT were up 35 percent from the previous week, but down 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Venezuela (26,700 MT), the United Kingdom (24,500 MT), Mexico (14,400 MT), Canada (13,700 MT), Ecuador (7,400 MT), Guatemala (6,800 MT), and Bangladesh (6,500 MT).

·         Bean oil Net sales reductions of 5,300 MT for 2012/2013 resulted as increases for Nicaragua (500 MT), unknown destinations (100 MT), and Belgium (100 MT), were more than offset by decreases for Mexico (4,700 MT), Colombia (900 MT), and Canada (600 MT). Exports of 9,300 MT were down 3 percent from the previous week and 33 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Jamaica (4,000 MT), Mexico (2,800 MT), Canada (900 MT), and Trinidad (800 MT).

·         Cotton Net Upland sales of 74,000 running bales for 2012/2013 were down 37 percent from the previous week and 66 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (28,600 RB), Vietnam (17,200 RB), Morocco (8,000 RB), Thailand (6,100 RB), and Taiwan (4,400 RB). Decreases were reported for Turkey (9,800 RB). Net sales of 68,800 RB for 2013/2014 were primarily for Turkey (32,700 RB), Mexico (14,600 RB), and Pakistan (13,000 RB). Decreases were reported for Thailand (2,100 RB) and Japan (700 RB). Exports of 306,700 RB were up 11 percent from the previous week, but down 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (98,200 RB), Turkey (63,600 RB), Mexico (38,600 RB), Vietnam (22,000 RB), South Korea (16,500 RB), and Brazil (11,100 RB). Net American Pima sales of 8,900 RB for 2012/2013 were up noticeably from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported primarily for China (6,400 RB), India (1,200 RB), and South Korea (1,100 RB). Exports of 23,700 RB were up 15 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily to China (14,900 RB), India (2,200 RB), Peru (2,100 RB), and Egypt (1,200 RB).

Moving averages

·         SN 100 day 1405 ¼

·         SN 200 day 1431 ½

·         CN 50 day 656 ¾

·         WZ 50 day 730 ¾

·         BON 50 day 4965

·         BOZ 50 day 4892

·         SMN 100 day 409.70

·         SMN 200 day 415.80

·         SMZ 50 day 344.80

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

·         CN 441,607 open, up 482

·         Total corn 1,154,655 open, up 9,781

·         SN 296,424 open, down 35

·         Total beans 570,009 open, up 5,555

·         SMN 137,068 open, down 509

·         Total meal 257,188 open, up 361

·         BON 182,405 open, up 1,601

·         Total bean oil 347,651 open, up 4,979

·         WN 216,656 open, down 1,119

·         Total wheat 401,358 open, down 2,022

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CDT expecting 94 Billion
  • Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am CDT with US acreage estimates. Previous estimates were
    • Corn acreage estimated at 97.753 MA vs. USDA estimate of 97.3 MA
    • Bean acreage estimated at 78.457 MA vs. USDA estimate of 77.1 MA
    • All wheat acreage estimated at 56.074 MA vs. USDA estimate of 56.4 MA
    • Cotton acreage estimated at 10.367 MA vs. USDA estimate of 10.0 MA
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out Monday with their May 1-20th Malaysian palm oil export estimates
  • OPEC meets May 31st in Vienna
  • Argentina will raise biodiesel blend rate to 10% from 7% on June 1st

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg