News From the Grain Floor 4/30/13

Good morning

The job’s not finished, until the paperwork’s done.

The Outhouse Poet….

Today is month end.

 

Corn limits today are expanded to .60 cents

Overnight closes

·         SN up 6 ½ at 1415 ¼

·         CN down a ¼ at 659 ½

·         WN down 6 ¾ at 709 ¾

·         SMN up 2.50 at 418.90

·         BON down 11 at 4940

·         RRN up 15 at 1507

Overnight volume

  • SN 12,477
  • CN 21,688
  • WN 6,723
  • SMN 7,456
  • BON 7,068
  • RRN 112

Opening calls

·         Beans 5-10 higher

·         Corn mixed

·         Wheat 5-7 lower

·         Meal 3-5 higher

·         Bean oil mixed

·         Rice 10-15 higher

Crude lower. Dollar, silver, and gold are higher.

Nikkei down .168%

Hang Seng up .692%

Chinese markets closed. Trading resumes on Thursday.

Euro Zone March unemployment rate at 12.1% ( record high) as expected vs. 12% in February

Euro Zone April inflation at +1.2% expecting +1.6% and vs. +1.7% in March

Spain unemployment rate at 26.7%

Portugal unemployment rate at 17.5%

German April unemployment rate at 6.9% unchanged from March

Japan March unemployment rate at 4.1% vs. 4.3% in February expecting 4.2%

FOMC 2 day policy meeting begins today .

Palm oil up 13

SGS estimated Malaysia’s April palm oil exports at 1.29 MMT down 5.6% from a month ago

·         China imported 355,042 tons vs. 401,120 a month ago

·         EU imported 239,422 tons vs. 206,113 tons a month ago

·         India imported 189,999 tons vs. 81,142 tons a month ago

Intertek estimated Malaysia’s April palm oil exports at 1.31 MMT down 4.3% from a month ago

·         China imported 362,637 tons vs. 403,420 a month ago

·         EU imported 216,675 tons vs. 199,485 tons a month ago

South Korea CJ bought 48,900 tons of US wheat for July shipment

Wheat Quality Council US winter wheat tour begins today . Tour is 3 days. They will be surveying winter wheat crops mostly in Kansas and also in Oklahoma and Nebraska.

India’s Ag Min said India may consider cutting wheat export price to increase shipments

Yesterday EIA released Feb ethanol production at 22.645 MB down 15% from a year ago

Yesterday EIA released Feb biodiesel production at 524 million lbs down 11.7% from a year ago

·         Feb bean oil methyl esters usage at 275 million lbs down 14.1% from a year ago. Market was expecting 330-360

On and off showers in the US Midwest for the next 6 days

Analysts said dryness in Australia may damage wheat crops .

Light rains are in the forecast for Australia but more rain is needed

836 new wheat receipts were registered yesterday afternoon by the Andersons

20 oat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

8 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Incobrasa Gillman IL

106 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

Today is first notice day for May futures.

Deliveries

·         Wheat 604 (expecting 0-500) with the date at 4/24/13

·         Bean oil 3,291 (expecting 0-3,000) with the date at 4/18/13

·         Rice 1,077  with the date current

·         No corn, meal, or beans (as expected)

Moving averages

·         SN 100 day 1410 ½

·         SN 200 day 1433 ½

·         SX 50 day 1248

·         CN 50 day 664 ¼

·         CZ 100 day 572

·         WN 50 day 710 ¾

·         WZ 50 day 731 ¾

·         SMN 200 day 415.20

·         SMZ 50 day 348.20

·         BON 50 day 5006

·         BOZ 50 day 4942

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday.

 

Corn

  • Planted 5% vs. 4% a week ago and vs. 31% 5 year average. Slowest corn planting since 1984.  (expecting 8-10% complete)
    • Corn planting by state
      • IL 1% unchanged from a week ago  vs. 76% a year ago and vs. 36% average
      • IA 2% vs. 0% a week ago vs. 44% a year ago and vs. 36% average
      • IN 1% unchanged from a week ago  vs. 67% a year ago and  vs. 30% average
      • KA 7% vs. 5% a week ago vs. 53% a year ago and vs. 35% 5 year average
      • NE 3% vs. 0% a week ago vs. 40% a year ago and vs. 26% average
  • Emerged 2% vs. 14% a year ago and vs. 6% 5 year average

Winter Wheat

  • Condition 33% good to excellent vs. 35% a week ago and vs. 64% a year ago
  • Condition 35% poor to very poor vs. 33% a week ago and vs. 10% a year ago
    • Texas good to excellent 7% vs. 12% a week ago
    • Texas poor to very poor 68% vs. 60% a week ago
    • Oklahoma good to excellent 23% vs. 27% a week ago
    • Oklahoma poor to very poor 41% vs. 36% a week ago
    • Kansas good to excellent 27% vs. 30% a week ago
    • Kansas poor to very poor 39% vs. 37% a week ago
  • Headed 14% vs. 8% a week ago and vs. 29% 5 year average

Spring wheat

  • Planted 12% vs. 7% a week ago and vs. 37% 5 year average
  • Emerged 3% vs. 26% a year ago and vs. 10% 5 year average

Rice

  • Planted 44% vs. 33% a week ago and vs. 57% 5 year average
  • Emerged 24% vs. 18% a week ago and vs. 35% 5 year average

Cotton

  • Planted 14% vs. 10% a week ago and vs. 20% 5 year average

USDA did not put out any bean planting progress on today’s report . Bean planting progress should be on May 6th report.

Bean planting by state

·         Louisiana 26% vs. 20% a week ago vs. 41% a year ago and vs. 42% average

·         Mississippi 11% vs. 7% a week ago vs. 56% a year ago and vs. 47% average

·         Arkansas 10% vs. 4% a week ago vs. 43% a year ago and vs. 22% average

·         Texas 55% vs. 44% a week ago vs. 67% a year ago and vs. 68% average

·         South Carolina 6% vs. 3% a week ago vs. 18% a year ago and vs. 7% average

·         Georgia 2% vs. 1% a week ago vs. 3% a year ago and vs. 4% average

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

·         CN 474,880 open, up 1,056

·         Total corn 1,169,506 open, down 30,735

·         SN 294,388 open, up 14,967

·         Total beans 541,750 open, down 2,171

·         SMN 133,525 open, up 1,978

·         Total meal 254,795 open, down 1,278

·         BON 190,761 open, up 266

·         Total bean oil 338,080 open, down 2,539

·         WN 239,279 open, up 4,953

·         Total wheat 413,715 open, down 6,605

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT  
  • Malaysian palm oil markets are closed tomorrow for May Day holiday
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • European and Chinese economic data comes out on Thursday
  • ECB meets on Thursday . Speculation ECB will cut rates by .25% to .5% (record low)
  • US unemployment comes out Friday May 5th
  • General elections in Malaysia on May 5th
  • CONAB Brazilian crop report comes out May 9th . Previous estimates were
    • Bean crop at 81.9 MMT
    • Average bean yield at 2.957 TPH
    • 1st  corn crop at 34.8 MMT
    • 2nd corn crop at 42.68 MMT
    • Total corn crop at 77.45 MMT
    • Wheat crop at 4.3 MMT
    • Cotton crop at 1.2 MMT
  • CME to launch RINs contracts including ethanol RINs and biodiesel RINs on May 13th  
  • Argentina will raise biodiesel blend rate to 10% from 7% on June 1st

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg