News From the Grain Floor 4/26/13

Good morning.

Before you accuse me take a look at yourself.

– Bo Diddley

May options expire today at 115 pm CDT. See below for open interest

 

Overnight close

·         SN down 4 ¼ at 1368

·         CN down 6 ¼ at 618 ¼

·         WN down 7 ½ at 696 ¼

·         SMK down 1.30 at 413

·         BON down 20 at 4928

·         RRN up 4.50 at 1515.50

Overnight volume

·         SN 11,785

·         CN 8,256

·         WN 4,772

·         SMK 1,112

·         BON 7,369

·         RRN 40

Opening calls

·         Beans 2-4 lower

·         Corn 5-7 lower

·         Wheat 4-6 lower

·         Meal .50-1.50 lower

·         Bean oil 20-30 lower

·         Rice 3-5 higher

Crude and dollar are lower.

Nikkei down .301%

Hang Seng up .654%

Shanghai Index down .961%

Most world stock markets are lower

US 1st quarter GDP came out this morning at +2.5% expecting +3.2% and vs. 4th quarter 2012 GDP of +.4%

Palm oil up 6. Chinese grain markets higher beans, corn, and meal. Lower bean and palm oil.

Good palm oil demand for India

Indonesia’s Trade Minister – May palm oil export tax at 9.0% vs. 10.5% currently

Indonesia 1st quarter palm oil imports totaled 1.848 MMT up 22.5% from a year ago

Malaysia’s May palm oil export tax at 4.5% unchanged from current export tax

Talk from yesterday continues – China will roll all remaining old crop US bean purchases into new crop

CNGOIC said palm oil stocks at Chinese ports at 1.33 MMT up 30,000 tons from a week ago and vs. 830,000 tons a year ago

Chinese industry analyst estimated China’s April palm oil imports at 580,000 tons and estimated May’s palm oil imports at 500,000 tons

Analysts said soybean stocks at China’s ports are currently at 3.5 MMT vs. 4.0 MMT at the end of March

IGC estimated China’s ‘12/13 bean imports at 59.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 61.0 MMT  due to bird flu vs. ‘11/12 imports of 57.1 MMT

CNGOIC said China bought 50K European rapeseed oil for July – Aug shipment .

China’s 1st quarter rapeseed oil imports at 387,234 tons up 69% from a year ago

Indonesia bought 200K South American corn for May June  shipment

Asian buyer seek 300K US or Australian wheat for July shipment

Japan bought 31,700 tons of Australian and Canadian wheat and bought 42,665 tons of Australian and Canadian barley via SBS tender for July shipment

GAPKI said Indonesia exported 5.67 MMT of palm oil in the 1st quarter. March totaled 1.7 MMT , February totaled 1.92 MMT , and January totaled 2.05 MMT

Mauritius seeks 50K optional origin wheat flour for July – Jan shipment

India Food Minister said Monsoon rainfall seen above normal this year and should boost grain crop production

India’s Farm Minister estimated India’s ‘12/13 total grain crop at 250.1 MMT down 3.5% from a year ago

India’s bean futures hit contract high

IGC  said Philippines rice stocks are at a 5 year low. Estimated June ending stocks at 1.7 MMT . 5 years ago Philippine rice stocks were at 4.7 MMT

IGC estimated Philippines ‘12/13 rice imports at 1.3 MMT

Warmer and drier weather in the forecast for the US Midwest

Australia dry

Russia and Ukraine dry – helping planting progress

May bean 50 day moving average is 1427 ½

May bean 100 day moving average is 1427 ¼

May meal 50 day moving average is 415.90

May meal 100 day moving average is 417.20

303 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon . Breakdown

·         40 – ADM Decatur IL

·         35 – ADM Des Moines IA

·         1 – ADM Frankfurt IN

·         4 – ADM Lincoln Nebraska

·         7 – ADM Quincy IL

·         116 – Bunge Decatur IN

·         80 – Cargill Ackley IA

·         20 – Minnesota Soybean Processors Brewster MN

70 rice canceled yesterday afternoon .

May options expire today on the close (115 pm CDT).  Open interest

  • CK 620 calls 370 open – puts 6,410 open
  • CK 630 calls 2,737 open – puts 5,289 open
  • CK 640 calls 5,084 open – puts 6,008 open
  • CK 650 calls 7,926 open – puts 10,592 open
  • CK 660 calls 9,964 open – puts 6,846 open
  • SK 1400 calls 4,554 open – puts 11,428 open
  • SK 1410 calls 2,050 open – puts 3,014 open
  • SK 1420 calls 4,218 open – puts 4,495 open
  • SK 1430 calls 2,940 open – puts 3,621 open
  • SK 1440 calls 5,837 open – puts 4,801 open
  • SMK 400 calls 1,490 open – puts 2,625 open
  • SMK 410 calls 1,101 open – puts 1,865 open
  • SMK 420 calls 1,366 open – puts 1,851 open
  • BOK 49 calls 791 open – puts 2,780 open
  • BOK 49.50 calls 288 open – puts 1,290 open
  • BOK 50 calls 1,082 open – puts 3,806 open
  • WK 680 calls 1,330 open – puts 3,875 open
  • WK 690 calls 727 open – puts 1,683 open
  • WK 700 calls 3,678 open – puts 7,172 open
  • WK 710 calls 1,525 open – puts 2,434 open
  • WK 720 calls 1,853 open – puts 2,522

Open interest (futures) as of yesterday’s close

·         CK 126,968 open, down 15,751

·         CN 463,259 open, up 158

·         Total corn 1,236,569 open, down 9,698

·         SK 57,015 open, down 16,341

·         SN 274,351 open, up 3,696

·         Total bean 557,220 open, down 10,230

·         SMK 21,066 open, down 2,261

·         SMN 132,834 open, up 3,232

·         Total meal 259,435 open, up 2,819

·         BOK 20,957 open , down 4,304

·         BON 195,892 open, down 1,807

·         Total bean oil 352,221 open, down 2,777

·         WK 33,163 open, down 4,784

·         WN 231,342 open, up 617

·         Total wheat 430,979 open, down 1,932

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CDT  
  • Weekly US export inspections come out Monday at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CDT. Expecting 8-10% corn planting
  • Position day for May futures is Monday. Delivery expectations are
    • Corn 0 – 0 registered
    • Beans 0 – 0 registered
    • Meal 0 – 0 registered
    • Wheat 0-500 – 1,153 registered
    • Bean oil 3,000- 6,000 – 11,356 registered
  • Wheat Quality Council US winter wheat tour begins Tuesday
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting begins Tuesday
  • First notice day for May futures is Tuesday
  • ECB meets May 2nd . Speculation ECB will cut rates.
  • US unemployment comes out Friday May 5th
  • General elections in Malaysia on May 5th
  • CME to launch RINs contracts including ethanol RINs and biodiesel RINs on May 13th  
  • Argentina will raise biodiesel blend rate to 10% from 7% on June 1st

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg