News From the Grain Floor 4/23/13

Good morning

“Money doesn’t make me happy, but it doesn’t make me unhappy either.”

Lauren Bacall

USDA announced 392,000 tons of new crop US beans sold to China

Overnight closes

·         SN down 1 ¼ at 1363

·         CN down 3 ½ at 620

·         WN down 7 ½ at 695

·         SMK up 2.40 at 412.40

·         BON down 34 at 4825

·         RRN down 2.50 at 1535

Overnight volume

·         SN 12,364

·         CN 8,906

·         WN 6,189

·         SMK 1,596

·         BON 11,104

·         RRN 117

Opening calls

·         Beans mixed

·         Corn 3-5 lower

·         Wheat 6-8 lower

·         Meal 1-3 higher

·         Bean oil 20-40 lower

·         Rice 1-3 lower

Crude , gold, and silver lower. Dollar and stock market higher.

Nikkei down .285%

Hang Seng down 1.079%

Shanghai Index down 2.573%

April mfg PMI flashes

·         Eurozone at 46.5, expecting 46.7 , vs. March final of 46.9

·         German at 47.9, expecting 49.0, vs. March final of 49.0

·         France at 44.4 , as expected, vs. March final of 44.0

·         China at 50.5 , expecting 51.5, vs. March final of 51.6

Palm oil up 17. Chinese grain markets higher beans lower everything else

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘12/13  corn imports at 3.0 MMT vs. ‘11/12 imports of 5.23 MMT. They said China has imported 2.12 MMT of corn so far this season down 26% from a year ago

MOC (Ministry of Commerce) estimated China’s April bean imports at 5.452 MMT down 257,200 tons from previous and vs. other analysts estimate of 4.27 MMT and vs. 3.84 MMT in March

MOC estimated China’s April bean oil imports at 79,500 tons vs. 31,661 tons in March

MOC estimated China’s April meal imports at 1,373 tons vs. 3,415 tons in March

MOC estimated China’s April rapeseed imports at 353,400 vs. 236,541 tons in March

MOC estimated China’s April rapeseed oil imports at 283K tons vs.  155,989 tons in March

China’s bird flu – 105 human cases 21 deaths

Rosario Grains Exchange said 20% of the ‘12/13 Argentine bean crop has been sold

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia has exported 14.322 MMT of grain between July 1st – April 17th down 40% from a year ago

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine has exported 20.5 MMT of grain between July 1st and April 22nd up 19% from a year ago

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine may lift cap on wheat exports for the remainder of the season the cap was 6.3 MMT of wheat exports

Based on a Reuters survey South Africa’s 2013 corn crop estimated at 11.5 MMT vs. government estimate of 11.75 MMT and vs. ‘11/12 crop of 11.83 MMT

Warmer and drier weather in Midwest forecast

Australia dry

May bean 50 day moving average is 1427 ½

May bean 100 day moving average is 1427

Cordonnier’s weekly report

·         Argentine bean harvest about 40% complete

·         Argentine corn harvest about 32% complete

·         Brazilian bean harvest about 90% complete

·         Brazilian bean crop estimated at 81.5 MMT unchanged from previous

·         Brazilian corn crop estimated at 75.0 MMT unchanged from previous

·         Argentine bean crop estimated at 50.0 MMT unchanged from previous

·         Argentine corn crop estimated at 24.0 MMT unchanged from previous

·         Total South American bean crop estimated at 144.45 MMT unchanged from previous vs. Safras e Mercado estimate of 146.275 MMT and vs. USDA estimate of 148.76 MMT

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Winter wheat

  • Good to excellent condition 35% (expecting down 1-2% from a week ago ) vs. 36% a week ago and vs. 63% a year ago
  • Poor to very poor condition 33% vs. 31% a week ago and vs. 10% a year ago
    • Texas condition 12% good to excellent vs. 17% a week ago , 60% poor to very poor vs. 50% a week ago
    • Oklahoma condition 27% good to excellent vs. 25% a week ago , 36% poor to very poor vs. 37% a week ago
    • Kansas condition 30%  good to excellent unchanged from a week ago , 37% poor to very poor vs. 33% a week ago
  • Headed 8% vs. 4% a week ago and vs. 19% 5 year average

Spring wheat

  • Planted 7% complete vs. 6% a week ago and vs. 24% 5 year average

Corn

  • Planted 4% (expecting 5-8% complete) vs. 2% a week ago and vs. 16% 5 year average
    • Kansas 5% planted vs. 30% a year ago and vs. 20% average
    • Texas 59% planted vs. 56% a week ago vs. 63% a year ago and vs. 62% average
    • Tennessee 31% planted vs. 87% a year ago and 45% average
    • Kentucky 15% planted vs. 73% year ago and 32% average
    • Missouri 13% planted vs. 48% a year ago and vs. 29% average
    • Illinois 1% planted vs. 56% a year ago and 24% average
    • Indiana 1% planted vs. 43% a year ago and vs. 16% average
    • Ohio 1% planted vs. 31% a year ago and vs. 12% average   
    • Nebraska 0% planted

Rice

  • Planted 33% vs. 23% a week ago and vs. 44% 5 year average
  • Emerged 18% vs. 12% a week ago and vs. 24% 5 year average

Cotton

  • Planted 10% vs. 8% a week ago and vs. 14% 5 year average

US soybean planting by state

·         Louisiana 20% complete vs. 11% a week ago , vs. 32% a year ago, and vs. 5 year average of 30%

·         Mississippi 7% complete vs. 4% a week ago  , vs. 39% a year ago, and vs. 32% 5 year ago

·         Arkansas 4% complete vs. 1% a week ago , vs. 27% a year ago , and vs. 14% 5 year average

·         Texas 44% complete, vs. 38% a week ago , vs. 57% a year ago, and vs. 57% 5 year average

·         South Carolina 3% complete , vs. 4% a year ago, and vs. 2% 5 year average

·         Georgia 1% complete , vs. 1% year ago and vs. 1% 5 year average

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

·         CK 184,650 open, down 5,841

·         CN 446,375 open, down 447

·         Total corn 1,264,982 open, up 1,875

·         SK 104,801 open, down 5,881

·         SN 256,869 open, up 7,808

·         Total beans 573,611 open, up 7,064

·         SMK 34,438 open, down 4,464

·         SMN 125,512 open, up 639

·         Total meal 256,741 open, down 2,766

·         BOK 46,210 open, down 3,397

·         BON 176,058 open, up 5,313

·         Total bean oil 351,185 open, up 4,804

·         WK 52,509 open, down 6,776

·         WN 219,707 open, up 4,511

·         Total wheat 435,595 open, up 348

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • Stats Canada comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT with their 2013 planting intentions report expecting
    • All wheat acreage average estimate 24.4 MA , range of estimates are 23.3-25.2 MA , vs. Ag Canada’s estimate of 25.229 MA and vs. 2012 acreage of 23.7976 MA
    • Durum acreage average estimate 4.5 MA , range of estimates are 4.0-4.9 MA , vs. Ag Canada’s estimate of 4.695 MA and vs. 2012 acreage of 4.68 MA
    • Canola acreage average estimate 20.3 MA , range of estimates are 19.7-21.0 MA , vs. Ag Canada’s estimate of 21.251 MA and vs. 2012 acreage of 21.531 MA
    • Oats acreage average estimate 2.8 MA , range of estimates are 2.5-3.3 MA , vs. Ag Canada’s estimate of 2.595 MA and vs. 2012 acreage of 2.85 MA
    • Barley acreage average estimate 7.6 MA , range of estimates are 7.2-8.0 MA , vs. Ag Canada’s estimate of 7.784 MA and vs. 2012 acreage of 7.40 MA
    • Corn acreage average estimate 3.6 MA , range of estimates are 3.2-3.8 MA , vs. Ag Canada’s estimate of 3.459 MA and vs. 2012 acreage of 3.54  MA
    • Beans acreage average estimate 4.6 MA , range of estimates are 4.4-5.0 MA , vs. Ag Canada’s estimate of 4.794 MA and vs. 2012 acreage of 4.15 MA
    • Flax seed acreage average estimate 1.0 MA , range of estimates are .8 -1.2  MA , vs. Ag Canada’s estimate of .865 MA and vs. 2012 acreage of .980 MA
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a build of 1.75 MB
    • Gas a draw of 350K
    • Distillates a build of 50K
  • Weekly ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • US 1st quarter GDP comes out Friday at 730 am CDT
  • May options expire Friday April 26th
  • ECB meets next week. Speculation ECB will cut rates.
  • Position day for May futures is April 29th
  • First notice day for May futures is April 30th
  • CME plans to launch RINs contracts including ethanol RINs and Biodiesel RINs in May
  • General elections in Malaysia on May 5th
  • Argentina will raise biodiesel blend rate to 10% from 7% on June 1st

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg