News From the Grain Floor 4/19/13

Good morning

“It’s not the will to win that matters – everyone has that. It’s the will to prepare to win that matters.”

Paul Bear Bryant

Overnight closes

·         SN up a ¼ at 1390 ¼

·         CN up ¾ at 630 ½

·         WN down 4 ½ at 702 ¼

·         SMK up 1.80 at 412.80

·         BON down 17 at 4949

·         RRK up 4 at 1541.50

Overnight Volume

·         SN 14,276

·         CN 9,192

·         WN 8,387

·         SMK 1,981

·         BON 7,424

·         RRK 64

Opening calls

·         Beans steady to 2 higher

·         Corn 2-4 higher

·         Wheat mixed

·         Meal .50 – 1.00 higher

·         Bean oil  10-20 lower

·         Rice 3-5 higher

Crude , gold, silver, and stock market higher. Dollar higher

Nikkei  up .729%

Hang Seng up 2.329%

Shanghai Index up 2.138%

Most world stock markets higher

G20 summit in Washington ends today.

Palm oil down 13. Chinese grain markets higher

RUMOR from yesterday afternoon 2-3 cargoes of Argentine bean oil being shipment into the US

Indonesia seeks 150K optional origin corn for June shipment

Malaysia seeks 120K optional origin (possibly South American) corn for June shipment

Philippines seeks 50K optional origin feed wheat for July shipment

Tunisia seeks 67K optional origin milling wheat for May-June shipmtn

South Korea seeks 100,686 tons of optional origin rice for August – October shipment

Palm oil analysts expecting Malaysia’s April 1-20th palm oil exports to be at 883,000 tons down 4.7% from a month ago

Palm oil analysts expecting April palm oil output in Malaysia to increase by 4-6% from March

Chinese local governments introduced measures such as subsidies or tax exemptions to keep poultry producers from suffering further financial losses (Dow Jones)

China sold 1,446 tons of rapeseed at yesterday’s auction, they offered 100,138 tons.

Chinese industry analysts said China’s current palm oil stocks at ports is at 1.3 MMT up 60,000 tons from a week ago

Chinese industry analysts estimated China’s April palm oil imports at 580,000 tons vs. 458,000 a year ago and vs. 430,000 tons a month ago. They estimated China’s May palm oil imports at 500,000 tons

Yigu Information Consulting LTD estimated China’s ‘13/14 corn imports at above 10.0 MMT vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 2.0 MMT

Yigu Information said Chinese farmers switching from corn to bean acres

Yigu estimated ‘12/13 Chinese corn crop at 180.0 MMT and estimated consumption at 180-190 MMT

WHO said 50% of human bird flu cases had no contact with poultry

88 confirmed human cases of H7N9 bird flu with 17 deaths

TALK of good US bean and meal demand

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange weekly Argentine crop report from yesterday

·         Estimated sunseed crop at 3.3 MMT down 8.3% from a year ago

·         Said sunseed harvest is complete

·         Estimated bean crop at 48.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

·         Said 38.6% of the bean crop has been harvested vs. 24% a week ago

·         Estimated corn crop at 25.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

·         Said 31.7% of corn harvest complete vs. 28.2% a week ago

Argentina’s Ag Min estimates as of 4/11/13

·         Corn crop estimated at a record 25.7 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

·         Said 36% of the corn crop has been harvested

·         Bean crop estimated at 51.3 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

·         Said 25% of bean crop harvested

Brazil loaded 4.2 MMT of beans in April, 76% to be shipment to China

35 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Bunge Decatur IN

USDA may release weekly export data for DDG shipments , decision will be made in the next few months

US exported 617,894 tons of  DDG in February up 5.6% from a month ago and largest exports since October

USDA estimated 2013 DDG exports at 6.9 MMT vs. 7.5 MMT in 2012

USDA estimated 2013 DDG production at 32.5 MMT

Ukraine Ag Min said spring grains planting complete on 2.0 MH vs. 3.6 MH a year ago

Ukraine Ag Min said 95.5% of winter grain crops in good to satisfactory condition

Ukraine Ag Min said they need to replant 500K hectares of winter grain vs. 2.0 MH a year ago

Ukraine Ag Min estimated 2013 grain crop at 50.0 MMT vs. 46.2 MMT a year ago

Other analysts estimated Ukraine’s 2013 grain crop at 53-55 MMT

150 mile stretch of the Mississippi river is closed

Weather problems and planting delays are starting talk that US corn acreage will be reduced

Rains in Midwest easing drought concerns

Bad weather causing planting delays in China

Chinese local feed demand falling due to bird flu

Snow fell yesterday in the Dakotas and Minnesota

Planting delays in Canada

More snow in Canadian forecast

Australia dry

NOAA predicts cooler than normal temps in northern US Plains for the month of May.

Moving averages

·         May bean 50 day – 1429

·         May beans 100 day – 1426 ¾

·         May meal 50 day 416.40

·         May meal 100 day 417.20

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

·         CK 202,454 open, down 31,414

·         CN 437,459 open, up 14,907

·         Total corn 1,262,601 open, down 5,471

·         SK 112,832 open, down 14,511

·         SN 243,521 open, up 7,873

·         Total beans 557,960 open, down 5,682

·         SMK 40,563 open, down 3,255

·         SMN 124,567 open, up 1,214

·         Total meal 258,499 open, down 1,161

·         BOK 53,975 open, down 12,304

·         BON 169,931 open, up 6,010

·         Total bean oil 347,771 open, down 4,861

·         WK 66,012 open, down 5,646

·         WN 210,954 open, up 4,420

·         Total wheat 437,532 open, up 4

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CDT
  • Intertek Agri Services estimates Malaysia’s April 1-20th palm oil exports on Saturday.
  • SGS estimates Malaysia’s April 1-20th palm oil exports on Monday
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CDT expecting
    • US corn harvest to be about 5-8% complete vs. average of 16%
    • US winter wheat good to excellent conditions to drop by 1-2%
  • Senate hearings next week on ethanol mandate
  • Argentine truckers to strike April 22nd
  • Stats Canada prospective plantings report comes out on April 24th
  • US 1st quarter GDP comes out Friday at 730 am CDT
  • May options expire Friday April 26th
  • Position day for May futures is April 29th
  • First notice day for May futures is April 30th
  • CME plans to launch RINs contracts including ethanol RINs and Biodiesel RINs in May
  • General elections in Malaysia on May 5th
  • Argentina will raise biodiesel blend rate to 10% from 7% on June 1st

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg