News From the Grain Floor 4/17/13

Good morning

books don’t crash, they don’t get viruses, and they don’t need screensavers

pepper… and salt, WSJ

July corn, beans, wheat, and bean oil are top step today .

 

Overnight closes

·         SN unchanged at 1375 ¼

·         CN down 2 ¾ at 638

·         WN down 2 ½ at 705 ¼

·         SMK up 3.50 at 404.80

·         BON down 28 at 4879

·         RRK up 5.50 at 1566

Overnight volume

·         SN 13,272

·         CN 9,126

·         WN 3,667

·         SMK 4,820

·         BON 11,571

·         RRK 246

Opening calls

·         Beans steady to 3 higher

·         Corn 1-2 lower

·         Wheat 2-4 lower

·         Meal 2-4 higher

·         Bean oil  15-30 lower

·         Rice steady to 2 higher

Crude, gold, silver, and stock market lower. Dollar higher

Nikkei up 1.221%

Hang Seng down .472%

Shanghai Index down .049%

Cyprus Finance Minister plans to sell part of gold reserves within the next few months . This has to be approved by the central bank.

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

·         Crude a draw of 6.7 MB expecting a build of 1.3 MB

·         Gas a build of 253,000 expecting a draw of 500K

·         Distillates a build of 1.3 MB expecting a draw of 500K

Palm oil down 25 (4 month low). Chinese grain markets higher

NDRC said China’s hog and feed ratio is down 2.78% from a month ago

Chinese industry analysts said China’s corn stocks at north ports at 3.5 MMT vs. 2.15 MMT a year ago

H7N9 China’s bird flu 77 human cases with 16 human deaths

Chinese government said cases of bird flu could continue to rise.

WHO said some bird flu cases had no contact with poultry

Concerns Argentine farmers will not sell beans due to high inflation rate and weak peso

Talk of good palm oil demand from India

TALK EU, Philippines and Vietnam seeking US meal.

Article on Reuters said European traders said US bought 30K tons of Argentine meal to be shipped soon

Japan bought 1,960 tons of feed wheat and 36,705 tons of feed barley via SBS for July shipment

Japan seeks 120K feed wheat and 200K feed barley via SBS tender for July shipment

Japan seeks 47K food wheat and 46K tons of barley via SBS tender for July shipment

Japan seeks 105,425 tons of milling wheat for May/July shipment Breakdown

·         5,330 tons of western white US wheat

·         18,725 tons of HRW US wheat

·         24,330 tons of DNS US wheat

·         25,470 tons of WRS Canadian wheat

·         31,570 tons of White Australian wheat

Russia Ag Min said 4.8% or 1.45 MH of spring grains planted as of April 16th vs. 590,000 hectares a year ago . Total spring planted area estimated at 33 MH

Russia Prime Minister estimated 2013 grain crop at 90-95 MMT vs. Ag Minister estimate of 90-92 MMT

Egypt’s current wheat stocks at 1.74 MMT vs. 2.0 MMT on April 3rd. Enough wheat supply for 71 days

German Farm Coop estimated 2013 wheat crop at 23.19 MMT vs. previous estimate of 23.59 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 22.38 MMT

US corn belt wet thru Friday with light rains in forecast next week delaying corn planting

More snow in forecast for Canada delaying spring planting further

Australia wheat areas dry . Analysts said dry weather could lower wheat output. Analysts estimated ‘13/14 wheat exports at 14-15 MMT vs. 19.0 MMT in ‘12/13 and vs. ‘11/12 record of 23.0 MMT . ABARE estimated ‘13/14 wheat crop at 24.9 MMT and some analysts believe this estimate is too high. Analysts estimated ‘12/13 wheat ending stocks at 3.0  MMT vs. 8.0 MMT a year ago

Australian weather agency sees normal to below normal rainfall the next 3 months.

Russia dry.

28 ethanol receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

Somar Meteorologia Brazilian corn estimates

·         Expects outstanding 2nd corn crop output due to rains keeping good soil moisture

·         Expects over 50% in 1st corn crop losses in some parts of northeast Brazil due to drought and pests

·         Southeast Minas Gerais 1st corn crop harvest 56% complete vs. 42% a year ago

·         Southeast Sao Paulo 1st corn crop harvest 65% complete vs. 72% a year ago

·         South RGDS 1st corn crop harvest 69% complete vs. 62% a year ago

·         South Santa Catarina 1st corn crop harvest 75% complete  vs. 63% a year ago

·         South Parana 1st corn crop harvest 75% complete vs. 66% a year ago

Yesterday Rand bought 10,000 – 12,000 Nov bean 1120 puts and sold 5,000 – 6,000 Nov bean 1200 puts at a ½ debit

Open interest on the Nov 1120 puts is 14,715 up 3,696 total amount traded yesterday was 12,604 contracts

Open interest on the Nov 1200 puts is 19,061 down 4,157 total amount traded yesterday was 6,353 contracts

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

·         CK 259,160 open, down 19,099

·         CN 414,974 open, up 5,426

·         Total corn 1,280,700 open, down 13,575

·         SK 133,988 open, down 12,394

·         SN 230,208 open, up 10,962

·         Total beans 559,685 open, up 1,409

·         SMK 50,586 open, down 9,661

·         SMN 119,594 open, up 4,497

·         Total meal 261,053 open, down 3,985

·         BOK 79,765 open, down 15,124

·         BON 161,389 open, up 5,573

·         Total bean oil 361,864 open, down 7,724

·         WK 83,884 open, down 7,615

·         WN 199,282 open, up 3,615

·         Total wheat 441,384 open, down 2,911

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE numbers come out today at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a build of 1.20 MB
    • Gas a draw of 800,000
    • Distillates a draw of 350,000
  • Weekly ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CDT
  • Brazilian dock workers to stage 1 day strike tomorrow
  • G20 summit tomorrow and Friday in Washington
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Senate hearings next week on ethanol mandate
  • Argentine truckers to strike April 22nd
  • Stats Canada prospective plantings report comes out on April 24th
  • May options expire April 26th
  • Position day for May futures is April 29th
  • First notice day for May futures is April 30th
  • CME plans to launch RINs contracts including ethanol RINs and Biodiesel RINs in May
  • General elections in Malaysia on May 5th

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg