News From the Grain Floor 4/15/13

Good morning

 

And those who were seen dancing were thought to be insane by those who could not hear the music

credited to Friedrich Nietzsche though there is some debate

 

USDA announced 480K tons of US SRW wheat sold to China for ‘13/14 delivery

 

NOPA March crush report comes out today at 11 am CDT . I will email the NOPA numbers when they come out. Expecting

  • Crush average estimate from Dow Jones is 140.0 MB and from Reuters is 136.8 MB the range of estimates are 127.1-146.0 MB in February the crush was 136.3 MB and March 2012 the crush was 140.5 MB
  • Bean oil stocks average estimate 2.882 billion pounds range of estimates are 2.74-2.875 B February bean oil stocks were 2.79 B and March 2012 bean oil stocks were 2.363 B
  • Meal exports in February were 765,659 tons

 

Overnight closes

  • SK down 7 ½ at 1405 ½
  • CK down 9 ¾ at 648 ¾
  • WK down 14 ¾ at 700
  • SMK down 2.20 at 398.00
  • BOK down 39 at 4884
  • RRK down 10.50 at 1571.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SK 17,431
  • CK 13,668
  • WK 6,221
  • SMK 4,798
  • BOK 9,471
  • RRK 23

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-10 lower
  • Corn 8-10 lower
  • Wheat 13-15 lower
  • Meal 3-5 lower
  • Bean oil 20-40 lower
  • Rice 10-15 lower

 

Crude, gold, silver, stock market and dollar are all lower this morning.

 

Nikkei down 1.553%

Hang Seng down 1.432%

Shanghai Index down 1.112%

All world stock markets are lower.

 

China’s 1st quarter GDP +7.7% vs. +7.9% in the 4th quarter and expecting +8.0%

 

ECB president to speak in Amsterdam today.

 

Palm oil down 36 Chinese grain markets are all lower.

 

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s April 1- April 15th palm oil exports at 648,275 tons down 4% from a month ago

 

Malaysia set May palm oil export tax at 4.5% unchanged from April tax

 

China’s Stats bureau said Chinese corn area expected to rise 4.1% this year, bean area expected to drop 8.5% this year, rice area expected to rise 1% this year, cotton area expected to drop 6.2% this year

 

Bird Flu found outside of Eastern China

 

Bloomberg Survey estimated 2013 China bean imports may fall to  58.0 MMT due to bird flu

 

60 human cases of bird flu in China with 13 human deaths

 

Beijing based China Cereals said bean prices may fall to $13.00 by next month. May beans currently trading 1405 ½

 

China.gov.cn said as of 4/12/13 palm oil stocks at ports were at 1.21 MMT vs. 890,000 tons a year ago

 

Jordan seeks 100K milling wheat and 100K feed barley optional origin.

 

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia exported 14.236 MMT of grain between July 1 – April 10th

Down 36.8% from a year ago

 

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia may export 14.8 MMT of grain in the ‘12/13 season vs. previous estimate of 15.5 MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine’s  April 1st grain stocks are at 18.0 MMT and April – June consumption is estimated at 7.4 MMT

 

Vietnam exported 213,769 tons of rice between April 1- April 10

 

22 corn receipts were canceled Friday afternoon out of Elburn Coop , Morris IL

 

Argentina Ag Min Harvesting Progress as of Friday April 12th

  • Bean crop 25% complete vs. 30% a year ago
  • Corn crop 36% compete vs. 34% a year ago
  • Sunseed crop 96% harvested vs. 98% a year ago

 

Weekly COT report from Friday . Large spec positions as of 4/09/13 . Futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 48,371
  • Corn short 10,151
  • Beans long 29,126
  • Meal short 3,767
  • Bean oil short 71,282

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • CK 269,199 open, down 16,288
  • CN 401,731 open, up 8,038
  • Total corn 1,303,481 open, down 708
  • SK 162,940 open, down 10,209
  • SN 212,169 open, up 8,024
  • Total beans 565,367 open, up 1,074
  • SMK 65,373 open, down 4,833
  • SMN 115,197 open, up 5,975
  • Total meal 270,184 open, up 1,789
  • BOK 95,290 open, down 6,497
  • BON 149,065 open, down 1,555
  • WK 99,314 open, down 11,366
  • WN 191,507 open, up 7,441
  • Total wheat 448,406 open, down 2,621

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections comes out today at 10 am CST
  • NOPA March crush report comes out today at 11 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CDT should show US corn plantings for the first time this season expecting 2-6% complete vs. 5 year average of 7% complete and expecting a 2-5% drop in winter wheat good to excellent ratings
  • US CPI comes out on Tuesday at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT
  • Brazilian dock workers to stage 1 day strike on April 18th . Brazilian government said they will try to avoid
  • G20 summit Thursday and Friday.
  • Argentine truckers to strike April 22nd
  • Stats Canada prospective plantings report comes out on April 24th
  • CME plans to launch RINs contracts including ethanol RINs and Biodiesel RINs in May
  • General elections in Malaysia on May 5th

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg