News From the Grain Floor 4/12/13

Good morning

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.”
– Charles MacKay

USDA reported 110K US new crop beans sold to unknown .

CBOT grain overnight closes
• SK up 5 ¾ at 1407 ¾
• CK up 4 ¼ at 655 ½
• WK up 8 at 705 ¾
• SMK up 2.50 at 397.50
• BOK down 3 at 4974
• RRK up 7.5 at 1584

CBOT grain overnight volume
• SK 20,140
• CK 12,512
• WK 9,161
• SMK 5,636
• BOK 9,243
• RRK 57

CBOT grain Opening Calls
• Beans 4-6 higher old crop , steady better new crop
• Corn 3-5 higher
• Wheat 6-8 higher
• Meal 2-3 higher
• Bean oil steady lower
• Rice 6-8 higher

Crude, gold, silver, stock market are lower . Dollar higher

Nikkei down .473%
Hang Seng down .055%
Shanghai Index down .578%
Most world stock markets are lower this morning

European finance ministers meet today in Dublin to discuss Cyprus bailout

Chinese industry analysts expect China’s Central bank will tighten monetary policy soon

Palm oil down 8 (near 2 week lows) Chinese grain markets higher meal and corn and lower beans and oils

Egypt Meditrade seeks 30-40K sunflower oil for May shipment

Egypt FIHC seeks 12K sunflower oil for May/June shipment

Tight US old crop bean stocks

TALK China may buy more US wheat if prices fall.

Analysts estimated China’s ‘13/14 wheat imports at more than 3.5 MMT vs. 3.2 MMT in ‘12/13 and vs. 2.933 MMT in ‘11/12 said northeast Chinese corn planting delays at least 10 days due to excessive snow cover . Northeast China is China’s largest corn producing area said some Chinese farmers prefer to plant beans over corn because beans take a shorter time to mature said Chinese bean seed sales better than corn seed sales

Chinese feed demand may fall due to bird flu

CCC sold 3,000 tons of US bean oil to Guatemala this week.

Brazilian dock workers to stage 1 day strike on April 18th . Brazilian government said they will try to avoid

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said as of 4/11/13 24% of the Argentine bean harvest has been completed vs. 9.2% a week ago and vs. 22.7% a year ago

BAGE said central Argentina is reporting better than expected yields of 3.72 TPH

BAGE estimated Argentina’s ‘12/13 bean crop at 48.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. USDA estimate of 51.5 MMT

BAGE said Argentina’s corn harvest is 28.2% complete as of 4/11 vs. 24.3% a week ago and vs. 33.4% a year ago

BAGE estimated Argentina’s corn crop at 25.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. USDA estimate of 26.5 MMT

Argentina farmers are not selling

Bulgaria Ag Min estimated 2013 wheat crop at 4.5 MMT vs. 4.4 MMT a year ago

Solvent Extractors Association of India said March edible oil imports at 850,906 tons up 21% from a year ago , March palm oil imports at 558,810 up 50% from a year ago , March sunflower oil imports at 90,655 down 13% from a year ago , March bean oil imports at 46,990 tons down 53% from a year ago

Solvent Extractors association of India said Nov 1st – March 31st India edible oil imports at 4.631 MMT up 22% from a year ago

Indian Food Minister said India’s government is looking into ways to cool domestic food and grain prices

Kazakhstan national statistics agency said April 1st grain stocks were at 10.318 MMT down 9.6% from a month ago and down 36% from a year ago . Including wheat stocks of 9.349 MMT vs. 14.985 MMT a year ago , barley stocks 507,590 tons vs. 709,474 tons a year ago

UK customs data said UK imported 256,067 tons of wheat in February vs. 269,676 tons in January

UK customs data said July 1 – April 1 wheat imports at 1.86 MMT vs. 598,077 tons a year ago

Vietnam to sell 187K tons of rice to the Philippines for April / June shipment

Vietnam Food Association estimated Vietnam’s 2nd quarter rice exports at 2.2 MMT vs. 1.45 MMT in the 1st quarter

Delays in US corn planting may lead to farmers switching to bean acres from corn acres. Some analysts say it is too early for concern.

MDA Weather Services estimated US 2013 corn yield at 154.0 BPA vs. 2012 yield of 147.2 BPA

MDA Weather Services estimated US 2013 bean yield at 43.0 BPA vs. 2012 yield of 41.9 BPA

MDA Weather Services is forecasting a dryer than normal US planting season and despite the winter snow and early spring rains drought is still a possibility in the US corn belt

Agrium expects western Canadian planting delays of 2-4 weeks due to snow cover.

Flood risks in Canada

Cold weather in the US , Canada, Russia, and the Ukraine

Mississippi river shipping off to the latest start in 44 years due to colder than normal temps and heavy snow. Shipping started earlier this week. Normally shipping on the Mississippi river begins in mid-March.

80 rice receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

Open interest from yesterday’s close
• CK 312,414 open, down 16,342
• CN 393,676 open, up 14,293
• Total corn 1,304,295 open, up 4,077
• SK 173,436 open, down 14,660
• SN 204,151 open, up 7,482
• Total beans 564,857 open, down 4,394
• SMK 70,233 open, down 5,194
• SMN 109,350 open, up 7,034
• Total meal 268,554 open, up 5,089
• BOK 102,033 open, down 5,513
• BON 146,399 open, up 7,166
• Total bean oil 364,025 open, up 1,843
• WK 111,323 open, down 5,855
• WN 184,394 open, up 10,709
• Total wheat 452,321 open, up 9,486

Upcoming reports/events
• Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT
• China’s 1st quarter GDP comes out on Monday
• Surveyors Intertek and SGS will estimate Malaysia’s April 1-15th palm oil exports on Monday
• Weekly US export inspections come out Monday at 10 am CST
• NOPA March crush report comes out Monday April 15th at 11 am CDT
• Weekly US crop progress report comes out Monday at 3 pm CDT should show US corn plantings for the first time this season expecting 4-6% complete
• US CPI comes out on Tuesday at 730 am CDT
• Argentine truckers to strike April 22nd
• Stats Canada prospective plantings report comes out on April 24th
• CME plans to launch RINs contracts including ethanol RINs and Biodiesel RINs in May
• General elections in Malaysia on May 5th

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg