News From the Grain Floor 4/10/13

Good morning

While we have the gift of life, it seems to me the only tragedy is to allow part of us to die — whether it is our spirit, our creativity or our glorious uniqueness
Gilda Radner

USDA supply and demand and world production report comes out today at 11 am CDT . I will email the numbers from the report when they come out. See below for estimates.

Overnight closes
• SK down 1 at 1394 ½
• CK up ¾ at 645
• WK down 5 ¾ at 703
• SMK down .20 at 394.60
• BOK up 7 at 5005
• RRK up 1 at 1571.5

Overnight volume
• SK 9,690
• CK 9,313
• WK 4,861
• SMK 5,775
• BOK 9,425
• RRK 13

Opening calls
• Beans steady to 2 lower
• Corn mixed
• Wheat 3-5 lower
• Meal mixed
• Bean oil mixed
• Rice steady better

Dollar higher. Crude, gold, and silver lower.

Nikkei up .726%
Hang Seng up .751%
Shanghai Index up .20%
Most world stock markets higher.

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday
• Crude a build of 5.1 MB expecting a build of 1.4 MB
• Gas a build of 2.0 MB expecting a draw of 1.1 MB
• Distillates a draw of 1.3 MB as expected.

FED SAYS MINUTES MISTAKENLY SENT EARLY TO CONGRESS, TRADE GROUPS

FED TO RELEASE FOMC MINUTES AT 8 A.M. CDT VS SCHEDULED 1 P.M.

China’s March imports +14.1% expecting +6.1%

China’s March exports +10.0% expecting +12%

China’s March trade deficit 880 million expecting a surplus of 14.7 billion

Palm oil down 25. Chinese grain markets higher.

Malaysian Palm Oil Board March data report came out this morning
• March palm oil stocks at 2.17 MMT vs. average estimate 2.35 MMT (7 month low) and vs. 2.44 MMT in February
• March palm oil production at 1.33 MMT vs. average estimate 1.28 MMT and vs. 1.30 MMT in February
• March palm oil exports at 1.54 MMT vs. average estimate 1.34 MMT vs. 1.40 MMT in February

Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s April 1-10th palm oil exports at 456,440 tons up 3.5% from March 1-10th

SGS estimated Malaysia’s April 1-10th palm oil exports at 462,276 tons up 5.4% from a month ago

China’s customs data said China imported 23.05 MMT of crude oil in March vs. 20.78 MMT in February and vs. 23.55 MMT a year ago

China’s customs data – China’s Jan – March crude imports at 68.97 MMT down 2.3% from a year ago

China’s customs data said China imported 700K tons of edible oils in March up 20.7% from a year ago

China’s customs data – China’s Jan – March edible oil imports at 1.87 MMT up 6.5% from a year ago

China’s customs data – China’s March bean imports at 3.84 MMT down 20.5% from a year ago and up 32.4% from a month ago

China’s customs data – China’s Jan – March bean imports at 11.49 MMT down 13.4% from a year ago

China’s Ag Min said 9.5 MH of Chinese corn area may be damaged by excessive rain and snow

China’s Ag Min said there is a 7-10 day delay to their crop season

NE Chinese farmers may cut corn acreage due to falling corn prices . NE China areas make up for 40% of China’s total corn output.

China’ Ag Min said China’s total 2013 corn area may rise 1.22% from a year ago .

China’s 2012 corn output was 208.12 MMT

China’s 2012 corn imports were 5.21 MMT

Argentina will reduce corn production next year due to falling prices. (Reuters)

Brazil raises non-Mercosur wheat import quota to 2 MMT from 1 MMT

Japan bought 100K South African corn for May- June shipment due to tight supplies in US and shipping delays in Brazil

Japan industry analysts said Japan still needs 600K tons of corn for April – June shipment . Expecting prices to fall

Japan canceled SBS tender for 120K feed wheat and 200K feed barley for July shipment

South Korea bought eastern Australian wheat to reduce costs (Dow Jones)

Solvent Extractors Association of India estimated March meal exports at 302,131 tons vs. Feb exports of 581,606 tons

Iran is canceling or delaying payments of Indian meal shipments. They have canceled about 100K tons .

Government official said India to consider increasing oilseed prices to boost output (Bloomberg)

USDA attaché in Morocco estimated ‘13/14 grain crop at 7.9 MMT up 55% from a year ago

USDA attaché in Morocco estimated ‘12/13 wheat imports at 3.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.0 MMT

USDA attaché in Morocco estimated ‘13/14 wheat imports at 2.7 MMT

Cold weather damage to HRW wheat crops in the US

Cash markets strong

Today is the 4th day of the index fund roll. Roll ends tomorrow.

Open interest as of yesterday’s close
• CK 348,273 open, down 25,578
• CN 364,572 open, up 18,608
• Total corn 1,297,831 open, down 3,809
• SK 202,037 open, down 16,574
• SN 576,794 open, up 3,046
• Total beans 576,794 open, down 11,812
• SMK 84,477 open, down 16,574
• SMN 96,167 open, up 7,176
• Total meal 264,091 open, down 587
• BOK 119,817 open, down 12,204
• BON 129,341 open, up 10,070
• Total bean oil 363,879 open, down 819
• WK 127,990 open, down 12,352
• WN 162,925 open, up 9,055
• Total wheat 440,997 open, down 617

Estimates for today’s USDA supply and demand and world production report. USDA will estimate US wheat crop in their May report. Report comes out at 11 am CDT

Estimates for April ‘12/13 US Grain, Soybean Ending Stocks
• Corn (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .824 BB, range of estimates are .625-.925 BB, March estimate was .632 BB, and ‘11/12 ending stocks were .989 BB
• Beans (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .137 BB, range of estimates are .107-.160 BB, March estimate was .125 BB, and ‘11/12 ending stocks were .169 BB
• Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .731 BB, range of estimates are .700-.776 BB, March estimate was .716 BB, and ‘11/12 ending stocks were .743 BB

Estimates For April ‘12/13 World Grain, Soybean Carryout
• Corn (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 120.2 MMT, range of estimates are 116.0 – 125.0 MMT, March estimate was 117.48 MMT, and ‘11/12 carryout was 131.16 MMT
• Beans (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 60.1 MMT, range of estimates are 58.21 – 62.0 MMT, March estimate was 60.21 MMT, and ‘11/12 carryout was 55.25 MMT
• Wheat (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 178.6, range of estimates are 176.9-180.0 MMT, March estimate was 178.23 MMT, and ‘11/12 carryout was 196.47 MMT

Estimates for April Argentina, Brazil Corn and soybean production
• Argentine corn (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate 25.7 MMT, range of estimates are 25.0 – 26.5 MMT, March estimate was 26.5 MMT, and ‘11/12 production was 21.0 MMT
• Argentine beans (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate 50.6 MMT, range of estimates are 49.0-52.0 MMT, March estimate was 51.5 MMT, and ‘11/12 production was 40.1 MMT
• Brazil corn (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate 72.9 MMT, range of estimates are 71.95-75.0 MMT , March estimate was 72.5 MMT, and ‘11/12 production was 73.0 MMT
• Brazil beans (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate 82.8 MMT, range of estimates are 81.0-83.7 MMT, March estimate was 83.5 MMT, and ‘11/12 production was 66.5 MMT

Upcoming reports/events
• Weekly DOE numbers come out today at 930 am CDT expecting
o Crude a build of 1.5 MB
o Gas a draw of 1.5 MB
o Distillates a draw of 1.5 MB
• Weekly ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CDT
• USDA supply and demand and world crop production report comes out on today at 11 am CST
• China to auction 100K tons of rapeseed oil from reserves tomorrow
• Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
• Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
• Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
• NOPA March crush report comes out Monday April 15th at 11 am CDT
• Argentine truckers to strike April 22nd
• Stats Canada prospective plantings report comes out on April 24th
• CME plans to launch RINs contracts including ethanol RINs and Biodiesel RINs in May
• General elections in Malaysia on May 5th

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg